We’ve had some bumps along the way but we have officially made it to the midpoint of the 2020 NFL season! For those of you checking us out for the first time, I’m @DFF_Biscuits. My role at Dynasty Football Factory is to embrace our inner degenerate by covering all things sportsbook related.Â
Earlier in the season, I wrote a piece on the projected win totals for both the AFC and NFC teams. With Week 8 behind us, I wanted to take some time to review our season-long win total bets and offer some opinions on where I believe each team is headed moving forward. This article will focus on the AFC teams, while a separate article will cover the NFC.
While most books do not have updated win total bets, there are still plenty of season-long options to take including division winner, conference winner, and whether a team will make the playoffs. Hopefully, this article can give you some guidance on making these mid-season bets!
Baltimore Ravens
The Pick: Over 11 Wins
Current Record: 5-2
A loss to the Steelers puts them 2 games behind in the division race. Given the cupcake schedule that both teams face, it’s unlikely they’re able to make up that ground giving the Steelers the inside track to the AFC North crown. However, another six wins seems very likely for this Baltimore team.
Buffalo Bills
The Pick: Over 8.5 Wins
Current Record: 6-2
The Bills are 6-2 and are 7:1 favorites to win the division. That should not come as a surprise as they sit two games ahead of the Miami Dolphins. The Bills do have a tough schedule ahead against the Seahawks, Cardinals, and Steelers, but I don’t believe Miami can catch up. The Bills should clear the win total with ease and maintain their hold on the division.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Pick: Over 5.5 Wins
Current Record: 2-5-1
While the Bengals were off to a rough start, they’ve certainly shown some signs of life in recent games. While the Bengals won’t be challenging for the AFC North crown, they are in great shape to eclipse 5.5 wins with matchups against the Giants, Washington, Miami, Dallas, and Houston on the horizon.
Cleveland Browns
The Pick: Over 8.5 Wins
Current Record: 5-3
The Browns only need to win half of their remaining games to eclipse 8.5 wins and they draw matchups against the Texans, Eagles, Jaguars, Jets, and Giants following their Week 9 BYE. Given that schedule, they definitely appear to be playoff-bound. Then again, it’s Cleveland so they’re just as likely to go 5-11 on the season.
Denver Broncos
The Pick: Under 7.5 Wins
Current Record: 3-4
The Broncos got lucky on a walkoff win against the Chargers in Week 8, but their upcoming schedule against the Raiders, Saints, Chiefs, and Bills does them no favors. The Chiefs are a -2000 favorite to win the division for good reason. I don’t expect the team to clear 7.5 wins and don’t expect them to make the playoffs either.
Houston Texans
The Pick: Under 7.5 Wins
Current Record: 1-6
The Texans are terrible but at least they finally excised the demons in their organization by removing Bill O’ Brien from power. That won’t be enough for them to close the season with 8 wins making this an easy victory for the under.
Indianapolis Colts
The Pick: Over 9 Wins
Current Record: 5-2
The Colts are currently tied with the Titans for the best AFC South record at 5-2. They face the Texans twice and Jacksonville once more this season, so getting to 9 wins should not be that difficult. The Titans are currently the favorites but have been slipping up in recent weeks, making the Colts at even money a good value bet for AFC South champions.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Pick: Under 4.5 Wins
Current Record: 1-6
Since a stunning Week 1 victory against the Colts, the Jaguars have done nothing exciting. They may now lose their starting quarterback for some time due to a thumb injury. Fade the Jaguars wherever possible moving forward.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Pick: Under 11.5 Wins
Current Record: 7-1
My Under pick was in large part due to the tough early matchups the Chiefs played against the Ravens and Patriots, but they brushed aside those teams with ease. The Chiefs are competing with the Steelers for best record in the AFC and do not appear to be slowing down. They’ll clear 11.5 wins and are certainly Super Bowl contenders.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Pick: Under 7 Wins
Current Record: 4-3
Never been so happy to be wrong about something, because it means the baseless anti-Carr chatter has finally quieted down. They certainly are not overtaking the Chiefs for the AFC West, but they are having quite a decent season. The Raiders have very winnable matchups against the Broncos, Falcons, and Jets coming up so they should easily clear this win total and make the playoffs.Â
Los Angeles Chargers
The Pick: Under 7.5 Wins
Current Record: 2-5
Herbert looks good but this is devastating. The Chargers will miss out on the playoffs and the win total, but their future does look as bright as a Chargers’ future can!
Miami Dolphins
The Pick: Under 6.5 Wins
Current Record: 4-3
I would’ve felt much better about this bet had the Dolphins not just blown out the Rams, but the Tua-led offense was not the cause of that victory. I think the Dolphins’ defense can carry them to three more wins to ruin this bet, but I don’t believe they’ll usurp Buffalo for the AFC East crown. If you get good odds on them making the playoffs, that might not be a bad bet.
New England Patriots
The Pick: Under 8.5 Wins
Current Record: 2-5
Wow. So it looks like it was Brady. There’s always time for Bill Belichek to right the ship, but without his trademark defense, it’s looking increasingly unlikely. The offense is too suspect and the defense is missing too many pieces. Point goes to Tom Brady.
New York Jets
The Pick: Under 6.5 Wins
Current Record: 0-8
Lol.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pick: Over 9 Wins
Current Record: 7-0
Well, this is an easy one. Not only do the Steelers boast the best record in the AFC, they also have the best record in the league as well. They’re a lock to make the playoffs and will likely win the AFC North division given their upcoming schedule against the Cowboys, Bengals x2, Jaguars, and Washington. They are also +275 to win the AFC, which is not a bad line at all.
Tennessee Titans
The Pick: Over 8.5 Wins
Current Record: 5-2
The Titans currently hold the lead in the AFC South and are the favorites to win the division. However, given their recent slip-ups, I would not advise betting on them. Look for them to secure four more wins on the season and make the playoffs, but I doubt they come away with the division title.
Disagree with my picks? Have any more information that I should be looking at? Feel free to DM me on Twitter at @DFF_Biscuits!
For more from Stephen, check out his archive.
