Dynasty Analysis
For the Heady Mafia and loyal members of the #DFFArmy out there, you can take a break from reading this paraphernalia as it’s not about you. Although, please get ready to forward this to some people in your life. This barely conscious smattering of words on paper…fine, “digital” paper, is for Tom from Accounting, Susan from Human Relations, or my wife 10 years ago. This is for the people who for some strange reason, despite the ease of it, have yet to dip their itsy-bitsy toes into the foray of fantasy football. I am here today, to tell, no, dare say, educate you (ok fine, “brainwash”) why those excuses you keep giving your significant other, family member, or coworker will no longer work in this day and age. So, let’s get down to business and make our way through the bullshit that is your excuse. Bonus, I am even going to give you a type of fantasy football league that would suit you best for this year.
We learned that tackles are king at safety! The top five finishers in IDP scoring at safety all finished with more than 100 total tackles each through week 16. The top five stars of the safety position included Jordan Poyer, Budda Baker, Jessie Bates, Jeremy Chinn, and Adrian Phillips. Of those finishers, three are under the age of 26, and amazingly, Jeremy Chinn was able to crack the top five as a rookie. Chinn looks primed for another excellent year of production in 2021, so if you roster the Carolina safety, you are looking fine.
Each season in dynasty leagues there are post-rookie draft waiver targets that provide a tremendous value for owners who were savvy or lucky enough to find them on their roster. Some provide an immediate “home-run” return like Kamren Curl did last season or Maxx Crosby in 2019. Others make great taxi squad stashes that provide value later (think Jerome Baker, Josey Jewell, Jeffery Simmons, Dre Greenlaw, D.J. Wonnum, Alex Highsmith, etc.). The majority will fall flat as expected.
We learned that the young star linebackers were prepared to dominate once again! Both Roquan Smith and Devin White came into 2020 with extremely high expectations, and both delivered with resounding success. These two superstars combined for 280 total tackles (140 each), 32 tackles for loss, and 13 sacks on the season. Finishing just behind these two phenoms was a trio of consistent veterans in Zach Cunningham, Blake Martinez, and Joe Schobert. Barring any major unforeseen changes, the 2020 top five should produce well again in 2021.
For the next couple of weeks, we are going to project whose fantasy stock is up and whose fantasy stock is down entering the 2021 season. There will be a player whose stock is up and a player whose stock is down from each team. We will be breaking down each division at a time. In this edition, we will analyze the AFC East.
In 2020 Dynasty Football Factory launched a series titled “Schemes Are Ch-Ch-Changing”. Each edition of the series explored how a new defensive coordinator would affect defenders as fantasy assets. The David Bowie song “Changes” would roll through my head as I started each article. I admit it; by the sixth or seventh article, I began to cringe at the title. I reached out to the team at DFF for ideas. Thus, I give you “Scheme or Scam.” The premise remains. I will investigate for each article how a new defensive scheme will deploy defenders and how that will translate to fantasy value. I write about this because it’s information I sought out and could not find when I began playing IDP fantasy football just a few years ago.
Each season in dynasty leagues there are post-rookie draft waiver targets that provide a tremendous value for owners who were savvy or lucky enough to find them on their roster. Some provide an immediate “home-run” return like James Robinson did last season. Others make great taxi squad stashes that provide value later and might be tradeable for better assets (think Boston Scott, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Allen Lazard, Preston Williams, Collin Johnson, etc.). The majority will fall flat as expected.
Death, taxes, and analysts propping up rookie face plants. These second-year receivers are likely presented as premium buy-low players. Players that are still young and have perceived upside. But does buying rookie face plants work? Is it a viable strategy? We must first define what a face plant is. For this study, we will consider 7.5 PPR (per game) or less a face plant. This leaves us with a sample size of 229 receivers (all data of drafted wide receivers since 2010). Of those 229, only 13 went on to achieve at least a top 24 positional finish and only nine were able to achieve more than one. That’s a staggering 5.7% achieving at least a top 24 positional finish and 3.9% achieving more than one. Not exactly odds that we would want to bet on, let alone trade away rookie draft capital to acquire.
While the Texans may look like a terrible franchise that could be without Deshaun Watson this season, there’s still value to be found in their backfield. The Texans signed Mark Ingram and Phillip Lindsay to one-year contracts adding to David Johnson and a number of backs that have remained irrelevant. The average age of the Texans backfield by the start of next season is 26.8, which is basically geriatric for the NFL.
The days of the traditional sleeper are quickly fading with a community full of hard-working analysts and tape grinders who nail down even the least known players before most of the NFL scouts can get their eyes on them. Ok, that might be a bit of an exaggeration (It’s not!) but the dynasty market is saturated with content. Therefore, most players will be given some sort of spotlight and as a result, the entire population of dynasty managers is more knowledgeable as a whole making “sleepers” much more difficult to discover and take advantage of.
There exists a great divide between redraft and dynasty fantasy football. Many factors contribute to the considerable gap between the two, but one aspect unique to dynasty is the constant evolution. The ability to adjust as a dynasty manager is key, whether it is fixing a mistake made in the start-up draft or understanding the applied strategy is outdated or unreliable in today’s dynasty landscape, success hinges on one’s aptitude for self-reflection and change.
During this “dead period”, of impact Fantasy Football content, it’s always good to take inventory of your roster and identify “who’s hot” and “who’s not”, from a Dynasty values perspective. The idea lends itself to helping you make strategic moves and improving your starting line-up production while insulating with production potential. The following recommendations are meant to help you find ways to expand your production potential via the off-loading of “hyped” assets, whether proven or unproven. These examples are not to say that these players possess poor value; rather it’s due to the perceived value that might allow you to move them in to strengthen your overall roster.
After firing Adam Gase, the Jets hired Robert Saleh who quickly brought in Mike LaFleur. They signed Tevin Coleman to a one-year, $1,100,000 contract and drafted Michael Carter in the fourth round with pick 107. Coleman and Carter join La’Mical Perine, Ty Johnson, and Josh Adams in the backfield.
James Robinson managers were shocked (maybe) in the draft when the Jaguars selected Travis Etienne in the first round with the 25th overall pick. This wasn’t out of the question going in, as the Jags had a lot of draft capital to throw around, but it was a bit surprising to me. James Robinson was more than serviceable in 2020, he was good. They also added veteran depth to the backfield during free agency in the form of Carlos Hyde.
Each year in dynasty formats a new set of rookies come in that take your attention away from the veterans and last year’s class. In this article, I am going to break down some of the rookie RBs from the 2020 class and give you some insight on what’s to expect this season and beyond. The 2020 Rookie RBs are like no other, and with the value and hype that each possesses, these backs will likely continue to be great dynasty assets.
With the 2021 NFL Draft in the books and teams beginning their offseason mini camps, the NFL offseason is approaching a lull. We will overreact to one-on-one videos of a wide receiver breaking a defensive back’s ankles on a route when the receiver knows the play and the defensive back does not. Or it might be in the form of a running back making a decent-looking body catch against air. We may even see more statistics about Zach Wilson being 0-5 against teams with 10 or more wins in that respective season and posting just one passing touchdown in those five games.
Get familiar with 2021’s closest sure thing. Ja’Marr Chase is the best wide receiver prospect we’ve seen since Julio Jones. No really, Julio Jones. Chase checks all the boxes we look for in wide receiver prospects and then some. Let’s first look at his draft capital. Draft capital is a great indication of what an NFL team thinks of a prospect and just how much they like (or don’t like) him. The Bengals made Chase the fifth overall selection on April 29th. What other receivers have been drafted with such elite draft capital? (All Data is from 2010-2021)
The only Falcon with meaningful rushing numbers that returns to the team is Matt Ryan. Todd Gurley and Ito Smith are both free agents, and Brian Hill is a Titan. The Falcons return Tony Brooks-James and Qadree Ollison, but neither one has contributed much to the franchise at this point in their careers. The biggest name in the Falcons backfield is Mike Davis, who they signed to a two-year $5,500,000 contract this past offseason. The team also signed Cordarrelle Patterson, a converted wide receiver who saw 64 carries with the Bears last season. Not to be lost in the fray, are UDFAs Javian Hawkins and Caleb Huntley.
Miami is similar to the 49ers in that they give one guy a ton of work, it’s just sometimes difficult to be sure who that guy is going to be. In every game he played, Gaskin saw more than 60% of the snaps. He even saw 70% or more in five games, which was half of his games played. When Gaskin was out, Ahmed stepped in and received 46%, 76%, 66%, and 60%. They’re going to give the ball to primarily one guy, and right now that one guy looks like Myles Gaskin.
The Broncos signed Melvin Gordon to a two-year $16 million contract last offseason. This offseason they originally placed a restricted free agent tender on Phillip Lindsay, before allowing him to walk in free agency. To replace Lindsay, they brought in Mike Boone on a two-year deal worth $3,850,000 and drafted Javonte Williams with the 35th pick in the draft. Oh yeah, Royce Freeman is still around somewhere too.
Everyone wants to find the edge in fantasy football. Sometimes the edge is glaring at you from across the room, and you just fail to notice it; or in this case, everyone fails to notice. Everyone is enamored with top-tier running backs and quarterbacks because of the positional advantage they give your team. We should be looking at the difference in production between a top player at a position and the bottom end starter at the same position, but we need to set some criteria for this study to have the most helpful results.
Looking back and reviewing hits and misses each year is a task I encourage every analyst to perform. Not only is it part of holding yourself accountable, but it’s an opportunity to reflect and improve your fantasy football chops. As a community, we aren’t great at admitting when we’re wrong but this gives us the chance to pat ourselves on the back for our victories while also learning from our mistakes. We can’t get them all right and most of the time fewer than we’d like but we can gain a lot from evaluating both.
After the NFL draft, there are quite a few backfields without a clear picture of who the workload is going to fall on. While it’s possible some backfields may continue as committees, more than likely, a few of them will have one guy receive a large volume of the work. That’s what I’m aiming to dive into in this series: who will emerge from the muddy backfields and cement their place as a fantasy value this season?
After the NFL draft, there are quite a few backfields without a clear picture of who the workload is going to fall on. While it’s possible some backfields may continue as committees, more than likely, a few of them will have one guy receive a large volume of the work. That’s what I’m aiming to dive into in this series: who will emerge from the muddy backfields and cement their place as a fantasy value this season?
Luckily, JJ Zachariason has already put in the research to show us what to look for. Even though his research is primarily for redraft, we can apply it to dynasty as well. Breakout running backs typically aren’t handcuffs. They come from ambiguous backfields and are oftentimes drafted as the 2nd back from their team. Pass catchers have an easier route to breakout, as there is typically a three rush to one reception workload ratio. Most importantly, age doesn’t matter. Players in their 5th year are just as likely as rookies to break out in these situations.
Today’s fantasy landscape grows more and more complex. When evaluating rookie prospects we have so many different stats and metrics to look at. The hard part is figuring out which ones are important and which do not matter. That is where regression analysis can come in and play a large role. I will be using regression analysis to help build a predictive grading model that can be used to easily sift through many players to quickly identify guys to avoid and target. Our end goal when selecting rookies is who will be the best fantasy assets when they hit the NFL, and the best assets are the ones who score us the most fantasy points. To create my rookie model I used regression analysis and sorted through multiple different metrics to determine which correlated to NFL fantasy points per game (FP/G) the most and which correlated the least.