The season is quickly approaching, and here at Dynasty Football Factory, we are sharing our “My Guys” for the 2021 Redraft season. I picked my favorite values at each position, and tell you why below.
QB – Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
ADP – QB12, 98 Overall
In Redraft 1QB leagues I always try to fade QB and hunt upside “late”, knowing I can more than likely pick up a solid and serviceable QB off waivers if needed. The QB that fits the “late” pick with lots of upside is the Eagles QB Jalen Hurts. The sophomore QB is currently going off the board as the QB12, but his upside is much higher than that. In the three games that Hurts started and completed in 2020, he averaged 22.45 PPG. That slots in just below Lamar Jackson’s 22.71 PPG, (Redraft QB4), and Justin Hebert’s 22.55 PPG (Redraft QB7).
Although using a small sample size as a projection can be risky, I think Hurt’s scoring potential is higher than his 22.45 PPG in 2020. As a passer in 2020, Jalen Hurts was not very efficient, completing just 52% of his passes. He has tons of room for improvement as a passer, making his upside even higher than his 22.45 PPG in 2020. I believe it is safe to say Hurts will be more efficient and accurate as a passer when you consider his prospect profile. It was just in 2018 at Alabama and then in 2019 at Oklahoma where Hurts completed 73% and 70% of his passes. Per playerprofiler.com Hurts was nothing but efficient as a college passer, boasting a 94th percentile QBR and 98th percentile Yards Per Attempt.
If Hurts can take a step forward as a passer and rush with a familiar efficiency he had in 2020, Hurts could be a Top 5 QB. In Redraft leagues I’m smashing the draft button on Hurts as the QB12, knowing he has league-winning upside.
RB – Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals
ADP – RB30, 74 Overall
Similar to Jalen Hurts, Chase Edmonds simply has too much upside to pass on at his price. Edmonds is the presumed lead back in the Arizona offense. An offense that was sixth in yards per game, and seventh in rushing yards per game. I would be a fool not to point out Kyler Murray rushed for 51 yards per game last year, but that still leaves 90 yards a game up for grabs. However rushing yards are not why I am high on Chase Edmonds this year, his receiving upside is. Yes, it would be great if Edmonds could eat up a large chunk of that rushing yardage, but RBs that catch a lot of passes are who truly hold the upside.
In 2020 as the supplementary RB to Kenyan Drake for the Cardinals, Edmonds was one of the top pass-catching backs in the league, ranking sixth in targets, seventh in receptions, and 6th in receiving yards. On just 45.1% of the snaps, Edmonds was still the PPR RB21. The hope for 2021 is that Chase Edmonds will take advantage of the departure of Kenyan Drake, beating out the seldom healthy and sluggish James Conner for an increased snap rate. In turn, producing more on the ground while still being a very productive pass catcher.
My biggest and best case for Chase Edmonds though is his upside compared to this price. When taking a look at some advanced metrics from 2020, Chase Edmonds looks familiar to D’Andre Swift, as I highlight in this Twitter thread:
Despite looking eerily similar to Swift last year, there is a massive gap in their redraft ADP. Swift is going 26th overall as the RB15, and Edmonds is going 74th overall as the RB30. Yes, I understand that Swift was a rookie and he is very likely to increase his usage in 2021. However, Swift does now share the backfield with Jamaal Williams, the RB that capped Aaron Jones‘ snap share to 61.5% in 2021. I am not saying that Swift can’t be good in 2021 with less than 60% of the carries, but I believe his snap share in 2021 may end up very similar to Edmonds.
WR – Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans
ADP – WR38, 91 Overall
Brandin Cooks is not a shiny new toy, but he’s one of the toys you know you can trust. Since entering the league in 2014, Cooks has only had 2 seasons where he failed to gain at least 1,000 yards receiving. Those seasons being his rookie year and his last year with the Rams. Those two seasons also happen to be the only two seasons in his career where he did not get at least 100 targets. When I look at the Texans in 2021 I have a hard time seeing a healthy Brandin Cooks not getting over 100 targets.
A quick look at the depth chart and you see that former Bears flame out Anthony Miller and rookie Nico Collins are Cooks’ biggest competition for meaningful targets in 2021. With Will Fuller gone to Miami, Brandin Cooks is clearly the most proven pass-catcher on the roster. Cooks is in line for a massive target share in 2021. I don’t think it matters who is throwing the ball this year, may it be Tyrod Taylor, Davis Mills, or Deshaun Watson. Brandin Cooks should get his 100+ targets and hopefully his 1,000+ yards too.
Considering Cooks’ price I believe he is a great addition to any roster. Adding a player safely slated for 1,000 yards in round 7 or 8 is a great value. In my opinion, Brandin Cooks is the last clear-cut WR1 on his respective team you can take. He is a safe option, a player you should feel confident inserting into your lineup as a WR3 WR4 or flex.
TE – Jared Cook, Los Angeles Chargers
ADP – TE22, 167 Overall
Like Jalen Hurts, and Chase Edmonds I see Jared Cook as a screaming hot value. In 2020 Cook was the TE19, a big drop-off from his 2019 season that resulted in a TE7 finish. This year the veteran TE gets a new team and young stud QB now throwing him the ball in Los Angeles, with the Chargers. This upcoming season, Jared Cooks steps into the role that Hunter Henry, now of the New England Patriots, once held. In 2020, Henry was the TE8 on the year and had the 7th most targets at the position.
Cook has been a very productive TE in his career:
So seeing him as the lead TE in an offense led by Justin Herbert is very intriguing to me. So this leaves the question: why is he being drafted as the TE22? This simply seems like an oversight by the fantasy community. Jared Cook is 34 years old, but you cannot deny the upside he possesses given the potential opportunity he has in 2021. 100 targets are not out of the question for Cook in 2021.
It would be very risky to draft Jared Cook as your starting TE, but drafting him as a backup with Top 10 TE upside is the way to do it. He fits the bill perfectly with his ADP of 167, making him a 13th or 14th round pick. At this point in the draft, all of the “safe” players are gone, so you should be chasing upside, especially since your starting lineup is already filled out. Jared Cook is a proven and talented player in a situation to succeed. I am not sure what else you can ask for in a late-round TE.
Thanks for checking out my article! If you like what you saw here, you can give me a follow on Twitter @RookieWhisper for more fantasy content.
