As we approach the peak of draft season, I thought it would be fun to share my favorite value at each position. I am aggressively targeting these players at their respective ADPs in all of my leagues, and in this article, I’ll explain why you should do the same.
QB: Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
ADP: QB14, 102nd Overall
Ryan Tannehill is my absolute favorite “late-round” quarterback this season. On a PPG basis, Tannehill has finished as the QB9* in each of the past two seasons. He also ranks first in yards per attempt, second in passer rating, and ninth in passing TDs during that stretch. With a 28-game sample size in Tennessee, it’s fair to say that Tannehill has fully rebounded from his below-average seasons in Miami. He is now a high-quality NFL starting QB. He’s also a sneaky rusher who has added over 15 rushing yards per game and 11 total rushing TDs during his stint with the Titans.
The Titans said goodbye to Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith this offseason, but the additions of Julio Jones and Josh Reynolds make the offseason a big win overall for Ryan Tannehill. Meanwhile, the Titans’ defense is shaping up to be one of the worst in the NFL, which will only force the team to rely more heavily on Tannehill’s arm throughout the season.
*Counting players that started at least eight games.
RB: Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
ADP: RB22, 46th Overall
There have been 17 first-round running backs since 2010. The running backs in this group, which range from Ezekiel Elliott to Doug Martin to Clyde Edwards-Helaire, averaged 16 touches per game as rookies. That works out to 256 touches per season, which is a ton of volume, especially when you consider players like David Wilson, Rashaad Penny, and C.J. Spiller only started a handful of games during their rookie seasons. The data is clear on this point: teams draft running backs in the first round to use them.
Travis Etienne was drafted in the first round after recording three consecutive seasons of at least 1,500 scrimmage yards. The Jaguars chose to reunite Etienne with his college quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, who targeted Etienne quite frequently during their time together at Clemson. The Jaguars now have some real firepower on offense and a defense that should have them trailing in most contests. A lot of negative game scripts will mean a lot of targets for Etienne while the team is in comeback mode. And, as we all know, a target is worth a lot more than a rushing attempt in fantasy football. Don’t be scared off by cryptic coachspeak or undrafted free agents. Travis Etienne is a massive value right now.
WR: Antonio Brown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
ADP: WR47, 116th Overall
Antonio Brown played his first game for the Buccaneers in Week 9. The table below shows how receiving production was distributed between the wide receivers from that point on.
| Player | Receptions | Yards | TDs |
| Mike Evans | 40 | 633 | 6 |
| Chris Godwin | 40 | 561 | 5 |
| Antonio Brown | 45 | 483 | 4 |
Surprised? I certainly was. I knew Brown had some big games, but I never would have guessed that he led the trio in receptions after joining the team. His targets came closer to the line of scrimmage, so he did finish with the least yardage. But the gap in production here is far smaller than the gap in ADP. Mike Evans is currently being drafted as the WR14, while Chris Godwin is the WR16. Those players are studs in their own right, but I’ll happily grab Antonio Brown over five rounds later.
The Buccaneers project to be near the league lead in passing yards and TDs once again. Tom Brady has publicly stated his affinity for Antonio Brown, and now the two will have a complete offseason to build chemistry together. Furthermore, we know that Brown has league-winning potential. With multiple WR1 finishes on his resume, is there any doubt that he could assume a larger role if either Godwin or Evans were to miss time? Brown is an absolute no-brainer at his current cost.
TE: Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles
ADP: TE8, 80th Overall
The news that Zach Ertz will (most likely) remain with the Eagles for the 2021 season, certainly puts a bit of a damper on the Dallas Goedert breakout. However, I still believe Goedert is a value at his TE8 price.
In 2020, he finished as the TE9 on a PPG basis in an awful situation. Carson Wentz experienced his worst season as a pro and was replaced by a rookie part-way through the year. Three of the Eagles’ five starting offensive linemen, two of them pro-bowlers, missed most or all of the season. Dallas Goedert himself dealt with injury all year and only scored three TDs.
The Eagles’ offense should look a lot better in 2021. The offensive line is healthy, Jalen Hurts has more experience, and the team added Heisman-winner DeVonta Smith in the first round of the NFL Draft. As Zach Ertz continues to decline, I expect Goedert to serve as the team’s top tight end and second-most targeted weapon depending on the development of Jalen Reagor. His upside is 100+ targets and 10 TDs, which is exactly what you should be looking for if you miss out on a top tight end.
Thanks for reading this article! Look me up on Twitter at @fantasyfreezer if you’d like to hear more from me. I love answering fantasy questions, discussing trades, and engaging in friendly debates, so be sure to drop in and say hello.
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