Ryan Tannehill revitalized his career when joining the Tennessee Titans in 2019. After taking over in Week 7 as the starting quarterback in 2019, Tannehill never looked back. From Week 7 on, Tannehill was the quarterback three with 225 fantasy points, averaging 22 points per game. The following year, he finished as the quarterback seven with 350 fantasy points in 16 games. Even after these stellar finishes, people are still doubting him. This is evident by his ADP, which, according to DFF Rankings, is the 11th quarterback off the board. I am here to tell you that you are too low on Tannehill.
There is no question the Titans are a run-first team. Ranked second in attempts, yards, and touchdowns last season, they will continue to feed the beast in Derrick Henry. However, I would argue that this helps Tannehill more than it hurts him. When opposing teams game plan for the Titans, their focus is to stop the run. To do this, they will stack the box with more defenders. According to Next Gen Stats, last season, Henry faced a stacked box 27.8% of the time. This would be the third-highest rate in the league among running backs with at least 200 carries. This benefits Tannehill by creating one on one matchups with his receivers.
The Titans have arguably one of the best young receivers in the game with A.J. Brown. When he faces man coverage, it’s game over. According to Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception, A.J. Brown was number three on the list for the best wide receiver’s success rate versus man coverage last year. He is a home run hitter who is explosive on the field. Anytime Tannehill throws it Brown’s way, there is a chance he can take it to the house. This is apparent by having a touchdown pass for 73 yards in 2020, and another for 91 yards in 2019.
In the offseason, the Titans also acquired future Hall of Famer, Julio Jones. While he may not be the alpha on this team, he is still dominant. Last season, Jones was averaging 15.1 yards per reception. This would be good for the nine spot among wide receivers with at least 50 catches. Jones can still fly down the field and win at the next level.
These two wide receivers are the perfect fit for Tannehill and the Titans’ play style. Tannehill ranked fifth in the league in yards per attempt with a 7.9 rate in 2020. Couple this with a 6.9% touchdown rate, and we have ourselves an efficient quarterback one.
Since joining the Titans, Tannehill’s game has never been about throwing the ball 40 times per game and putting up massive yardage. He excels by playing off the run game, throwing downfield, and letting his playmakers do what they are best at. However, with that being said, Tannehill does provide some extra cushion given his rushing ability. In his time in Tennessee, Tannehill has 86 rushes for 451 yards and 11 touchdowns. While I do not expect him to repeat his seven rushing touchdowns from last year, it is not out of the question that he will find the endzone with his legs. With a creative head coach and a team that ranked second in red-zone percentage, Tannehill will have plenty of opportunities.
Tannehill having an ADP as the 11th quarterback off the board presents a great opportunity for the fantasy player. Don’t spend the premium in the earlier rounds for a Patrick Mahomes or Kyler Murray. Wait until round 10 or 11 to steal Tannehill. With this proven success as a Titan, a great supporting cast, and the ability to run, Tannehill is a no doubt quarterback one. He will outperform his ADP and allow you the flexibility to draft other stars in the earlier rounds. Draft Tannehill and reap the rewards.
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