Soothsayers Roundtable: Quarterback Carousel

Beware of the Ides of March, the date March 15th was viewed by the Ancient Romans as a deadline for settling debts. The year was 44 BC and the Soothsayers informed the Dictator that their readings indicated death. A soothsayer is a minor priest also known as a haruspex, otherwise known for practicing animal sacrifice and reading the remnants of the body for signs from their deities. The practice of animal sacrifice is very similar to us fantasy players praying to the fantasy gods for a player they roster to get put back in for the goal line work as they fret a close competition. Back in Ancient Rome, the dictators and government generals would often consult with the Soothsayers regarding future war campaigns.

Julius Caesar was warned by these soothsayers that based on their ritual sacrifice of a Bull that his time was not long for this world predicting death the to the Dictator on March 15th. Beware the Ides of March. The Soothsayer warned him multiple times before the dictator was eventually assassinated by 60 of his closest friends. There is a corollary situation that we deal with each offseason with the vaunted quarterback carousel, and based on my analysis on the future NFL Draft classes, we are approaching a rare situation in which in the not too distant future there will be more starting-caliber quarterbacks than the 32 jobs allow for.

Impending QB Carousel 

We have 13 quarterbacks who have uncertain futures with their teams that are starting-caliber quarterbacks, at least in some capacity. We have three elite quarterbacks available who could lead their new team to the Super Bowl in Aaron Rodgers (39 years old), Deshaun Watson (27 years old), and Tom Brady (45 years old). Rodgers and Brady might be retired at this point, however, they would still garner demand as free agents despite their advanced ages.

Four quarterbacks are above average talents, meaning that they could game manage their way through the playoffs in ideal situations. These quarterbacks are Matt Ryan (38 years old), Kirk Cousins, (34 years old), Jimmy Garapollo (31 years old), and Derek Carr (32 years old). Among these players, we could see Cousins and Carr potentially stay with their current teams through 2023, however it is less likely than these teams drafting a replacement in the coming seasons.

Those are the top seven quarterbacks who do not have long-term job security and will garner serious competition on the open market. We also have six quarterbacks who project as bridge quarterbacks. A bridge quarterback is a player who the team will add to bring along a rookie quarterback while letting them develop as a backup for at the most one full season. These players are Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Sam Darnold, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Cam Newton, and Ben Roethlisberger. The latter three options are more likely to be retired by the time 2023 rolls around.

Finally, we have six backup level quarterbacks, these are players who may garner some attention on the open market but will be brought in to back up a rookie quarterback and share their experiences. These quarterbacks are Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, Marcus Mariota, Drew Lock, Mitchell Trubisky, and Dwayne Haskins. We do not expect these quarterbacks to make any sort of impact in the NFL in the not-so-distant future.

2023 Expected Starting QBs        

Working backward, we can now look at what teams have their quarterbacks under contract long term, or are expected to extend said quarterback before their rookie deals expire. The below chart are my expectations for the teams. We are not future tellers, but we do try our best to give the most accurate and actionable analysis possible. Our analysis of the quarterback market shows that there should be 13 starting jobs that will open up by 2023.

Of this list it is conceivable that Jalen Hurts, Sam Darnold, Kirk Cousins, and Matt Ryan remain on their current teams through 2023, however, we have a low confidence interval in that possibility. If two of those four aforementioned quarterbacks do remain on their teams we are down to eleven open starting quarterback jobs. We also expect Deshaun Watson to be playing well into the 2030s so long as he can amend his legal woes. Aaron Rodgers has stated that he wants to play into his 40s and has been playing at an elite level. Now we are down to nine teams.

The Newcomers

In 2020 the NFL had four first-round quarterbacks selected, and four quarterbacks from the entire draft class have become their team’s starter. We saw five quarterbacks drafted in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft, all are expected to become the team starting quarterback at some point during the 2021 season. We also had day-two draft capital for Kyle Trask, Kellen Mond, and Davis Mills, all of whom will be bred to be the team’s future starting quarterback, though the hit rate on non-first-round quarterbacks is tremendously low. 

I use these data points to create a trend in NFL Draft selections, we can see as many as five first-round quarterbacks going forward as front offices get younger and more flexible. There are several players currently in college who I project as elite prospects who will make it to the NFL in the coming two years.

Elite Prospects

There are four players in college football that I believe will grade out as elite prospects through the process of their draft season. Spencer Rattler from Oklahoma and Sam Howell of North Carolina headline the quarterback position for the 2022 NFL Draft. I expect both players to be selected in the top ten next spring, and to be named NFL starters at some point during their rookie season. 

We also have D.J Uiagalelei in 2023, who has already proven his elite ceiling in limited action filling in for Trevor Lawrence. He is currently a shoo-in for the first overall selection in the 2023 NFL Draft. We also have Bryce Young of Alabama, who has elite upside but still has to prove to the NFL that his diminutive size will not be an issue, similar to Kyler Murray. These are four elite prospects coming into the NFL in the coming seasons, add them into the elite to above-average mix and we have seven of the 13 open jobs taken.

Potential First Round Draft Picks

Now we can get back towards the trending metrics of four starting quarterbacks and potentially more starting-caliber quarterbacks coming from draft classes. There are several quarterbacks with red flags on their prospect resume, that could conceivably become starting NFL quarterbacks. Here are some low-cost high-reward players to target in devy drafts that could return immense value.

Kedon Slovis out of USC had an incredible freshman season filling in for JT Daniels. Daniels is a potential NFL Draft selection that Slovis beat out and forced to transfer to Georgia. Slovis is getting mocked as high as the top five by some mock draft sites. He struggled in a shortened 2020 season but can recoup his value back up to a back-end first-round target. Slovis is a statue in the pocket and offers no rushing upside that is so important for the modern fantasy quarterback.

Malik Willis transferred out of Auburn to join Hugh Freeze at Liberty and then got Liberty playing at a College Football Playoff level despite not being a Power Five conference. Willis, unlike Slovis, offers a tantalizing upside with his rushing game as Willis accounted for nearly 40% of Liberty’s rushing production in 2020.

Desmond Ridder is Cincinnati’s quarterback who is getting the first-round buzz, but I see this as a smokescreen. Ridder is a simple superimposition of the quarterback like Joe Burrow and Zach Wilson in consecutive seasons of the first-round quarterback that came out of nowhere. I think Ridder will hold value more like a Jamie Newman or Jake Fromm as preseason first-round buzz players that the NFL won’t value highly.

Matt Corral is a player that currently is not getting much first-round buzz, but his arm talent combined with rushing ability makes him very similar to Zach Wilson, however doing so against SEC competition. Corral’s red flags are mental decision-making concerns. He is no sure-fire NFL starter, however, the same remarks were made about Patrick Mahomes as a prospect.

C.J. Stroud is the top non-elite option from the 2023 class. A lot of the rhetoric around Stroud will be correlated to Justin Fields’ success in the NFL or lack thereof. Stroud is the odds-on favorite to win the Ohio State starting quarterback job which would push incoming freshman Kyle McCord to transfer once the prodigal son Quinn Ewers gets on campus in Columbus.

Teams with QB Needs

Of the teams available here is how I would rank their overall situation as franchises, then we will rank assign them to teams based on the likely leveraged situations where veterans will have their choice of teams to join, and the new rookies will be placed in the worse landing spots.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. New Orleans Saints
4. Washington Football Team
5. Atlanta Falcons
6. Denver Broncos
7. Carolina Panthers
8. Minnesota Vikings
9. Las Vegas Raiders
10. New York Giants
11. Philadelphia Eagles
12. Detroit Lions
13. Houston Texans

To put it simply between the incoming rookies over the next couple of seasons along with the veteran quarterbacks on expiring contracts, we will experience a rare scenario where there are more than 32 starting-caliber quarterbacks in the NFL. With an 18 game and two bye-week seasons looming in the distance, having three to five starting quarterbacks on your Superflex roster will be optimal. We will be breaking down this influx of talent and monitoring player values to provide actionable analysis. 

For the time being, if it does not hamper your chances of contending in 2021 I would be floating offers for all of these players while their values are dipping due to uncertain futures. For example, a trade that I made early this offseason was trading away Juju Smith-Schuster and the 1.12 (Jaylen Waddle) for Deshaun Watson. Similar conceptual trades for lower-valued players like Rodgers, Cousins, Ryan, Garoppolo, and Carr could turn into big winning tickets in your fantasy leagues.

Thank you for reading my article! If you enjoyed it, keep an eye out for my future articles. You can also follow me on Twitter @DynastyDiagnos1 and reach out with any questions, comments, or ideas you’d like me to explore for a new article. 

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