Finding a true bell-cow running back in the NFL is hard to come by these days. Most teams elect to utilize multiple backs for various situations. Whether it is goal-line work, third down, or simply just to keep the defense guessing, more running backs are getting involved on offense at a more frequent rate. While plenty of value and fantasy points can come from running backs on the same team, there are a few backfields that I am avoiding at all costs.
Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills are first on my list to avoid. After quarterback Josh Allen ascended to the next level last season, it was no surprise the Bills ranked 17th in the league in rushing attempts with 414. Of these rushing attempts, 102 of them were done by Allen himself. This left 312 attempts for the rest of the team. A sizeable chunk you may think. However, sprinkle in a handful of wide receiver carries, and a backfield where no dominant player has emerged, and that is just a disaster.
The top rusher on the Bills was Devin Singletary with only 156 attempts. The next highest was Zack Moss with 112. Moss ended up playing three fewer games than Singletary, so I imagine the splits would be even closer had they played the same amount. Other running backs, such as Antonio Williams and T.J. Yeldon, who are even lower on the depth chart, combined for 22 carries.
As a team, the Bills rushed for 16 touchdowns. Allen accounted for half of them. That left eight rushing touchdowns up for grabs. Moss had four, Singletary had two, and Williams had two. Gross.
With the addition of Matt Breida, there are even more mouths to feed in this backfield. With Singletary, Moss, and Breida all fighting for touches, and Josh Allen taking away their opportunities with his own ability to run, this backfield is an obvious fade.
New England Patriots
A tale as old as time. The New England Patriots have frequented this list for me, and this year is no different. While reports coming out of camp are saying Damien Harris is looking very good, I do not think he will be used as an every-down back. This backfield is too crowded with Sony Michel, James White, and newly drafted rookie, Rhamondre Stevenson, for my liking.
The Patriots were a run-heavy team last season. Ranked third in the league in rushing attempts and fourth in the league in rushing yards, one may think this is great for the running back room. Wrong. While the Patriots did carry the ball 502 times, 137 of these attempts went to quarterback Cam Newton. The next highest was Harris who also carried 137 times, followed by Michel with 79, Rex Burkhead with 67, White with 35, and J.J. Taylor with 23. Too many players getting touches for me to trust for fantasy.
In addition to the carries, Newton also accounted for 12 rushing touchdowns last season. This was 60% of the team’s total rushing touchdowns. This makes me nervous as a fantasy manager. Whenever the Patriots get inside the 20, especially near the goal line, there is a high chance Newton will just take it in himself. This puts an even greater cap on the potential for these New England running backs.
There is always the chance the Patriots make the change at quarterback to Mac Jones. This would open the gates for goal-line touches and more running plays geared towards the running backs since Jones is not a rushing threat. However, since 2011, only three times has a running back on the Patriots eclipsed 210 carries. With this track record, and White still being the undisputed third-down back, I will let someone else deal with this headache of a backfield.
Honorable Mentions: San Francisco 49ers and Houston Texans
While there is always the chance a player will emerge as the lead dog in a backfield, I do not like playing the guessing game. On top of that, it may not come to fruition until a handful of weeks into the season. At that point, it may be too late to even matter. I will gladly pass on these messy backfields and let a league mate take on the uncertainty.
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