Dynasty Analysis
Ryan Tannehill revitalized his career when joining the Tennessee Titans in 2019. After taking over in Week 7 as the starting quarterback in 2019, Tannehill never looked back. From Week 7 on, Tannehill was the quarterback three with 225 fantasy points, averaging 22 points per game. The following year, he finished as the quarterback seven with 350 fantasy points in 16 games. Even after these stellar finishes, people are still doubting him. This is evident by his ADP, which, according to DFF Rankings, is the 11th quarterback off the board. I am here to tell you that you are too low on Tannehill.
I’ve long been a huge fan of the HBO series “Hard Knocks” since its premiere in 2001. Outside of the expected silliness ranging from former Jets’ HC Rex Ryan’s “let’s get a snack” quote to Vince Wilfork’s “naked overalls” episode with the Texans, the show always does a fantastic job of hyping me up for the NFL season. So when the Cowboys were chosen for this year’s series, I mildly cringed at the idiocy that was inbound. And, spoiler alert, Mike McCarthy delivers in droves via an Austin Powers movie clip and fake bravado that brought on a mild panic attack. Yes, it’s insulting to the viewer but even more so to Mike Meyers who’s probably on the line with Jerry Jones negotiating compensation as I write this.
As we approach the peak of draft season, I have been doing tons of mocks and best-ball leagues. These experiences have led me to know who my favorite players are this year, or “My Guys”. In this piece, I will share one guy from each position that I have been heavily targeting in these drafts.
Film vs Analytics is one of the contested debates in the fantasy community. Both are important and one hand washes the other. Scouting and watching film are the foundation of evaluating talent. If data was the only indicator of success, NFL scouts wouldn’t need a scouting department. They would hire a Google Intern to run algorithms for them. On the flip side, data can help you make unbiased decisions and adjust your rankings by having a macro-level view of a pool of statistics. It’s important to understand what coaches look at on the field or in training camp because they decide if a player will even see the field. Not your algorithm. Moreover, learning scouting and theory can help you understand why players perform the way they do and what makes your data sing or choke.
Ryan Tannehill is my absolute favorite “late-round” quarterback this season. On a PPG basis, Tannehill has finished as the QB9* in each of the past two seasons. He also ranks first in yards per attempt, second in passer rating, and ninth in passing TDs during that stretch. With a 28-game sample size in Tennessee, it’s fair to say that Tannehill has fully rebounded from his below-average seasons in Miami. He is now a high-quality NFL starting QB. He’s also a sneaky rusher who has added over 15 rushing yards per game and 11 total rushing TDs during his stint with the Titans.
Two weekends ago the #DFFArmy organized its annual staff redraft league composed solely of DFF writers/editors as owners. Upgrading from 12 to 14 owners this season, your author willingly joined in the fun. The settings of the league are pretty conventional: a 0.5 PPR league with a starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 3 W/R/T, 1 K, and 1 DEF. Passing TDs are worth six points while rushing and receiving first downs are worth 0.5 points. There is also a 0.1 point per carry bonus and a 0.5 TE reception bonus.
Earlier this week, Tashan Reed of The Athletic reported that Las Vegas Raiders’ running back Jalen Richard sustained a foot injury after returning from the COVID-19 list and will be out indefinitely. The report had zero mention of what injury Richard suffered but to be immediately labeled as “out indefinitely” I have to assume it was fairly severe. Plus, foot injuries for skill position players are never a good thing as we have seen in the recent Carson Wentz saga and with Joe Mixon in season’s past.
Our hearts dropped this week as Vikings’ star Wide Receiver Justin Jefferson went down hard onto his left shoulder. Jefferson then left practice and was seen holding his wrist to support his shoulder. A classic sign of clavicle or collarbone injury. Thankfully, we didn’t have to speculate long as only a few hours later, Adam Schefter reported that Jefferson “has a sprained AC Joint” and it was considered “nothing serious, per source, but there would be further testing this weekend.” So right away, that tells us that Jefferson had an immediate radiograph or x-ray and it was determined that he did not fracture his collarbone which would have knocked him out for 6-8 weeks.
I don’t typically play in many redraft leagues these days but I’m always game for our yearly DFF Staff Redraft League. This year, with our growing staff, we decided to challenge ourselves a bit more with an increase to 14 teams instead of the standard 10-12 team league which presented difficult decisions from the get-go. I was granted the lovely honor of picking from the dead center of this draft, the 1.07 spot. I wouldn’t have chosen it this way and was titling from the moment I was on the clock for my first pick but I was surprisingly thrilled at the completion of this draft, so let’s dive into it.
Hurray for the start of Training Camps!! We can finally begin overhyping Twitter highlights while we listen to the sweet voice of Liev Schreiber give hope to Cowboys fans via Hard Knocks. So as we squeeze in a few more startups before the regular season starts, let’s dive into Part II of our Startup Strategies series. Make sure to check out Part I where I focus on drafting a strong core pick-by-pick through the first nine rounds of a real draft I participated in, and how you can take my strategy and deep dive to draft a roster competitive enough to win now without having to rebuild later. In Part II we’ll take a broader look at the full roster post-draft to evaluate depth by position and consider immediate and future roster moves needed to bring home The Ship.
Well, it happened. Eagles rookie wide receiver DeVonta Smith left practice on Monday with an apparent knee injury. Smith had an MRI which helped diagnose him with a sprained MCL in his knee. According to reports, the injury is considered minor and he is only supposed to be out “a couple of weeks” per Ian Rapoport.
When entering a fantasy draft, the first thing I do to plan out my strategy is to look at the league settings. In this draft, there were a lot of irregular rules, like getting points for rushing attempts and first downs, but none of that changed how I evaluated those players. Two rule changes caught my eye as having the biggest impact on weekly scoring. The first is how points are scored for quarterbacks. Instead of the typical four-point passing touchdowns and negative two points for throwing an interception, passing touchdowns are worth six and interceptions take three points away. The next rule change has to do with team defenses. Typically, my strategy is to stream defenses all year long. But in this league, there is a huge bump for allowing low point totals, and there are event points for tackles for loss, QB hits and passes defended.
Hey #DFFArmy, it’s your Director of Information Systems, @DFF_JoeMem, back again with a rankings update! As we enter into August, we are bringing back Redraft into focus. You’ll find those rankings HERE. Look closely and you’ll see that we were able to add Sleeper’s Redraft PPR ADP to our ranking page! For now, it’s only alongside our Redraft rankings, and we believe this will add a lot of value to the #DFFArmy on the road to some Championships. So we have Sleeper ADP, truly the voice of the people, but what about the rankers themselves? Who are the people you’ll be trusting your drafts with? Let’s find out!
Picking out of the one spot is easy this year in regards to who to take #1 overall, but the strategy following that pick can vary greatly. Below is my thought process as I drafted one of my favorite teams thus far during this off-season. Let me know what you think!
Nick Chubb is the most recent star running back to get a big extension. While the contract does not make him the highest-paid running back in the NFL, it still puts him in the top ten. So what does this new contract mean for Chubb, the future of the Browns, and some of their star players? Let’s dive in.
For this NFL season, a collection of 14 DFF analysts took their talents to a new Redraft league. As the analyst with the 14th pick, I knew it would be an uphill climb to add value. Despite this being a redraft league, I decided to go with my favorite dynasty strategy, the zero-RB. Knowing that this is a 14-team league, we had to adjust compared to the standard 12-team leagues in which elite positional players hold even more of a premium.
Beware of the Ides of March, the date March 15th was viewed by the Ancient Romans as a deadline for settling debts. The year was 44 BC and the Soothsayers informed the Dictator that their readings indicated death. A soothsayer is a minor priest also known as a haruspex, otherwise known for practicing animal sacrifice and reading the remnants of the body for signs from their deities. The practice of animal sacrifice is very similar to us fantasy players praying to the fantasy gods for a player they roster to get put back in for the goal line work as they fret a close competition. Back in Ancient Rome, the dictators and government generals would often consult with the Soothsayers regarding future war campaigns.
Having a consistently high floor allows for a better chance to make the playoffs. But the title of this series is not how to make the playoffs. Our goal is to win. Assuming you read Part 1 of this series, you know that our plan in rounds 3-6 is to go after high upside wide receivers. This doesn’t mean that we are neglecting other positions and only looking at wide receivers, but the value here is tremendous. This is also why solidifying the running back position is so important to do early. It now allows us to chase value in these rounds.
Robert Woods has been one of the more consistent fantasy players these last few years. Yet, even with his steady production, it appears he always flies under the radar, and down the draft board. For whatever the reason may be, Woods has been vastly underrated by the fantasy community after proving year in and year out that he can put up solid numbers and boost a starting lineup. This article will dive into the numbers and look at the situation surrounding Woods, making the case for him to be a WR1 this season.
Welcome, #DFFArmy to Dynasty Football Factory’s Redraft season kickoff! This year looks to be even more competitive than last year as we added two teams to the league, bringing the total number to 14. Not only did we grow the league size, but we expanded rosters by adding a flex position as well, which makes hitting in the mid to late rounds even more important than normal.
This week I drafted an 18-man roster in a 14-team 0.5 PPR staff redraft league for @DFF_Fantasy. It is also TE Premium, where they get a full 1.0 PPR. There are 11 starting positions, QB/2RB/2WR/TE/3FLEX/K/DEFplus seven bench spots. There are also bonus points for converted first downs, both on receptions and in the running game.
The player I can’t leave my draft without is Zach Cunningham. While a bit of an obvious choice, I want to make sure everyone is aware of who he is and the situation that surrounds him. I want to start off and preface that it is nearly impossible to predict fumbles, interceptions, and touchdowns. This is where a lot of the big points in IDP leagues come from. What’s one thing that is predictable? Tackles. This is precisely why there is an emphasis on getting a good linebacker for your team.
Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series. The NFC North is the eighth and final divisional breakdown. Check out other breakdowns by clicking on each respective division (AFC North, NFC West, AFC West, NFC South, AFC South, NFC East, AFC East) here at DFF. Keep in mind, there will be a player whose stock is up and a player whose stock is down from each team in this division. Enjoy.
How much is a dynasty roster spot worth? Or how much should it be worth? Has anyone really tried to come up with a quantitative measure that can be actionable in some way when we are managing our dynasty rosters? We have trade calculators, rankings, projections, all customizable by league settings (for the most part). But roster spots are largely ignored. When a trade is made that involves a two-for-one player exchange, a roster spot has been cleared for one owner. Or perhaps two spots in a three-for-one, although those kinds of deals are rarer.
This past weekend, I had the pleasure of drafting against a number of my colleagues for our 14-team staff league, cleverly named the “DFF Redraft Championship.” The draft was a ton of fun, and I can already tell the competition is going to be stiff. For some additional context, our starting lineups consist of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 3 W/R/T, 1 K, and 1 DEF. Passing TDs are worth 6 points, while rushing and receiving first downs are worth 0.5 points. There is also a 0.1 point per carry bonus and a 0.5 TE reception bonus. In this article, I’ll be breaking down the thought process behind each of my picks.