Hello, fellow fantasy managers. I am Chris Miles, The Draft Director, and in this series of articles, I will be helping you determine what players value you should be taking advantage of each week in your Redraft league. If someone’s value is too high I might tell you to sell or if I think their value will decrease soon he could also be a sell. I will give my reasoning for why each player falls in a certain category. I will attempt to have the format consistently be a buy and sell for each position but that may increase or decrease depending on the week.
I do not want to put a QB or TE on my list just to fill the space if they do not truly deserve it. So, you can trust that all of the players I will talk about are relevant. In this series, I will be assuming the following settings; 1QB, full PPR, 12-team leagues. The number of Flex starters will not affect this information very much but if you have a super deep league you can always hit me up on Twitter for those deeper guys. And with that all said let us dive right into the Week 1 Buys and Sells.
Quarterbacks
Buy – Ryan Tannehill, QB TEN Titans
We have seen Ryan Tannehill perform as the overall QB3 in fantasy since taking over for the Titans. We know he is good and should be even better with a worse defense and the addition of Julio Jones. If you waited too long on QB in your draft and missed out on Tannehill now is the perfect time to try and get him on your team. Sell the fact that the Titans needed Arthur Smith and Tannehill will struggle without him. If you can afford it you might be able to move a guy like Tyler Boyd or even recent waiver add Sterling Shepard straight up for him. If you are hurting at QB after week, go get Tannehill.
Sell – Jared Goff, QB DET Lions
Jared Goff was average for the Rams and he got shipped off to Detroit because of it. Now that he is there no one expected much out of him. He got to have a great week 1 filled with TDs, but this is not something that we should expect weekly from him. For this reason, I am taking his QB4 overall performance, selling an owner on perpetual negative game scripts for the Lions, and getting a flex player for him. As long as you can easily find, or already own another QB, move on from Goff.
Running Backs
Buy – Ty Johnson, RB NY Jets
None of the Jets’ running backs had very inspiring performances on Sunday. This has lead to all of them being unowned in more than half of the leagues I am in. If there is one that should be owned, it is Ty Johnson. Johnson played 54% of the snaps (25% for Carter and 26% Coleman), had the most weighted opportunities (7.1 to Carter’s 5.5 and Coleman’s 5.2), and had an 8.3% target share. Weighted opportunities are more important than pure opportunities because it gives more value to targets than carries. After all, targets score more fantasy points than carries do on average. We can use this extrapolate value. People will see Coleman with the most touches but not realize Ty Johnson saw double the snaps and the most value touches. Therefore, they will think Coleman is the lead back when all signs point to Ty Johnson.
Sell – Melvin Gordon, RB DEN Broncos
If you know me then you know I love Javonte Williams. But, the average fantasy player loves names they know and big fantasy point totals. They will look at their ESPN fantasy cast, see his 20.8 fantasy points, and think to themselves that Melvin Gordon is an RB1. While they do that, the people reading this will go into the box score. They will see that Javonte and Gordon both had 33 snaps, Javonte had more carries (14-11), but Gordon had more weighted opportunities. This ok though, the Broncos drafted Javonte to take over this backfield for Gordon and they showed their trust by splitting their work and feeding him more carries as early as week 1! This is a very encouraging sign and I think Gordon will be relegated to 30-40% touch share very soon.
Wide Receivers
Buy – Jerry Jeudy, WR DEN Broncos
I love Jerry Jeudy, he is one of my highest owned players in Redraft this year. I also love buying the dip on injured players; Jeudy is the marriage of that. Jerry Jeudy suffered a high ankle sprain that will keep him sidelined for about five weeks. Early in the season, people are trying to fight hard for wins and get scared if they start 0-1. But, we smarter fantasy players know making the playoffs isn’t that hard (unless it’s only top four teams) and the later weeks of the season matter far more than the early weeks. So, if you can get Jeudy pretty cheap now, then you will have a great WR2 later when the games are more important. Jeudy only played 47% of the snaps Sunday but still managed a 20% target share, was second on the team in air yards (86 to 83), and led the team in yards per pass attempt. Jeudy started hot and I believe he can return hot for the second half of the season and the fantasy playoffs.
Sell – Robby Anderson, WR CAR Panthers
Robby Anderson was fantastic for the Panthers last season and many people were excited for him to reunite with his old Jets QB, Sam Darnold. I was not high on Robby but I was not low either, I drafted him in just a couple of spots. However, in Week 1 he was simply outshone by the rookie Terrace Marshall Jr. Robby had the big fantasy score, but we know better than that. When we look deeper we see Terrace only played 50% of the snaps while Robby played 80%. On those snaps, Terrace managed an 18% target share and he doubled Robby’s targets. When Terrace is on the field he gets targeted and gets open. As he gets more snaps his numbers will increase while Robby’s will drop. But, Robby had a good fantasy score in week 1 so sell him while he still holds some value.
Tight Ends
Buy – Adam Trautman, TE NO Saints
Sell – Juwan Johnson, TE NO Saints
I’m just gonna talk about these guys at the same time since I will be using a lot of the same information. We’ve talked about it a lot so far but to reiterate what we care about in fantasy should be usage stats, not touchdowns and fantasy points scored. Usage stats are more indicative of future points than fantasy points scored are. This game is a perfect example of how you can get past the masses and gain value. Juwan Johnson scored 17.1 points while Adam Trautman only scored 4.8. However, Trautman played 82% of the snaps, had six targets, and a 30% target share in Week 1. Johnson only played 19% of snaps, had three targets and a 15% target share. Trautman was on the field four times as much as Johnson and doubled his targets.
The touchdowns, yards, and points are coming for Trautman. Johnson will consistently be a very inconsistent asset who relies on touchdown luck, while Trautman can be used weekly as a high target TE. Only eight players had a 30% or higher target share in Week 1; Deebo Samuel, Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp, Diontae Johnson, Chris Godwin, Sammy Watkins, Darren Waller, and Adam Trautman. He’s available on waivers in most leagues and should be added now.
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much! Make sure to be on the lookout for the next part of the series, One Dynasty Sleeper From All Right Divisions.
Did you enjoy this article and want more Dynasty, Devy, IDP, and Redraft content? Click here for a 12-month DFF Membership.
