DFS Week 1 Recap

What a crazy and unpredictable fantasy football Sunday. There were many unpredictable outcomes yesterday as Rodgers was horrible, Jameis had five touchdowns with no interceptions, and Ryan Tannehill failed to produce in an expected shootout. You can never expect the unexpected. Below, I am going to highlight my top DFS picks along with my biggest mistakes in week one.

QUARTERBACKS

First off, let’s start with the quarterbacks. My ‘love’ players were the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Ryan Tannehill, and Sam Darnold. Of those three players, two effectively performed and lived up to their price tags and then some. Tannehill’s performance was very disappointing and he highly let me down. 

For my ‘like’ players, I highlighted Jalen Hurts, Matt Ryan, and Teddy Bridgewater. Again, I was successful in picking two of the three respected players. Hurts and Bridgewater highly exceeded expectations and ended up being very strong options. As for Matt Ryan, he only outperformed Aaron Rodgers in DraftKings scoring, leading to a very disappointing week.

RUNNING BACKS

Next, let’s evaluate running back plays. For my ‘love’ picks for the week I choose Dalvin Cook, Antonio Gibson, Raheem Mostert, Damien Harris, and Chase Edmonds. Of the five highlighted players, I struck gold with four of five players. Mostert was the player who ended up underperforming and the only reason for that is because of an unfortunate injury. Therefore, the pick-up of Mostert is simply unpredictable and cannot be labeled as a ‘bust’. 

For my weekly ‘like’ picks at running back, I had four options. Of the four, three provided decent to top production. Christian McCaffrey was the second-highest scoring RB of the week. Mark Ingram was the fifteenth highest scorer, proving to be worth his low price point. Alvin Kamara was the third-highest costing player and ended up being the ninth highest scorer.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Now let’s get into receiving options. Being a deep position, I chose nine ‘love’ picks. Of the nine chosen, five overperformed, one was average, and three underperformed. Tyreek Hill was Tyreek Hill-Esq as he paced all receivers, posting an impressive 40-point performance on DraftKings. DeAndre Hopkins was also impressive as he was the seventh-highest scorer, posting 26.3 points. My value picks of DeVonta Smith and Tee Higgins both excelled and scored 19.1 and 15.8 respectively. With my love for Darnold, this week came with high hopes for both D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson. The two performed admirably scoring 15.4 and 12.7. Anderson was slightly disappointing due to his 12.7 points all being from a single 57-yard passing touchdown. 

For my disappointing picks, I chose Davante Adams, Calvin Ridley, and Michael Pittman. Unfortunately for Davante, he was tied to Aaron Rodgers who struggled to get anything going and posted the lowest QBR out of any quarterback on Sunday. As for Ridley, he was tied to Matt Ryan, who also was a large disappointment in week one. My last fail of the week was Michael Pittman who was overshadowed by Zach Pascal, a player who was one of my weekly ‘likes’, who scored twice and had a total of 20.3.

As for the rest of my ‘like’ players Byron Pringle, Deonte Harris, Quez Watkins, and Dyami Brown, only one produced a successful week: Deonte Harris, who scored 15.2 points. Of course, with four of the guys being close to the minimum price, there was very little expectation. My only ‘fade’ player chosen this week was Marquez Callaway. For Callaway, he had the unlucky matchup of going head to head with Jaire Alexander, one of the best lock-down corners in the league.

TIGHT ENDS

Lastly, my coverage of tight-ends. Tight-end is always a tough position to choose from since there are only 3-4 high-tier options. This week I chose five top play options. Travis Kelce, my favorite play of the week, was the second-highest scorer behind T.J. Hockenson. Dallas Goedert and George Kittle both provided solid weeks with 14.2 points and 11.8 points. Then my other two ‘value’ picks of Kyle Pitts and Dan Arnold proceeded to disappoint by only scoring 7.1 and 2.6 points. My only ‘like’ of the week at tight-end was Austin Hooper. With an implied high-volume passing attack, Hooper seemed poised to produce. Instead, Hooper was overshadowed by counterpart David Njoku.

To conclude, never consider a player a “lock” for your lineup. Players like Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill, Davante Adams, and Calvin Ridley are all incredible players. That being said, it doesn’t make them prone to underperform. They’re human just like the rest of us. To avoid having down weeks in DFS, consider a wide range of players and don’t overload all on one player. Also, injuries happen. Players bound for big weeks like Raheem Mostert can end up not producing because of in-game injuries. That is the nature of sports betting. If it were easy everyone would do it.

Thank you for reading. Catch me on Twitter @fantsyforecast for all fantasy-related discussions and football takes. #DFFArmy