Unless we’re analyzing workhorse running backs or alpha wide receivers, a player’s usage can fluctuate from week to week, some will shine and some will ruin your week. Remember, targets and opportunities are earned. In this series, I will provide weekly target shares, rushing attempt shares, and snap shares of SIX players (or group of players) to help you understand the value of each of them and decide whether to start ‘em, roster ‘em, or trade ‘em.
Ty’Son Williams, RB, BAL
Snap Share: 51%
Rushing Attempts Share: 26.5%
Target Share: 13.3%
I’m selling as soon as possible. He started well, but some missed blocks and game script landed him off the field. He had a good stat line in his first start but I would want nothing with that backfield. Three veterans were added and everything could get muddy. 18 fantasy points are easy to sell; take the profits and leave. Lamar will always take rushing attempts away and Rashod Bateman will return in a few weeks that could cause more throws in the passing game.
Philadelphia Eagles RB Room
Miles Sanders vs Kenneth Gainwell
Snap Share: 66% vs 35%
Rushing Attempts Share: 48.3% vs 29.0%
Target Share: 14.3% vs 8.6%
Boston Scott was non-existent Sunday; he had 0 snaps in Week 1. Miles Sanders was electric, he averaged almost 5 YPC and received 5 targets. Sadly he didn’t get the only red zone rushing attempt. He will continue to be a low-end RB2 with not a lot of upside. Nevertheless, Gainwell is a player who is worth rostering as he was the one who took the only red zone rushing attempt (and scored!). He could be a Flex play on bye weeks and has the upside to get the full workload if Sanders misses any weeks.
Aaron Jones, RB, GB
Snap Share: 49%
Rushing Attempts Share: 33.3%
Target Share: 5.7%
These numbers are disappointing for a consensus first-round RB. I know the game script was awful, but he only got one-third of the carries in Green Bay. Kylin Hill got the same number of carries and AJ Dillon got one less. Last year his fantasy success was explained by a phenomenal YPC (5.5 YPC, 3rd best among RBs) and a fairly good amount of TDs. He has never been a PPR machine (3.2 recs per game last two years), and if he sees his role diminished in this way we could be in for a disappointing season.
I would not sell right away, but I will keep an eye on these splits and sell if this diminished role continues for one or two weeks. It never hurts to hear offers and pull the trigger if you see a good and safe return.
Los Angeles Rams WR Room
Cooper Kupp: 94% snap share, 10 targets, 38.4% target share
Robert Woods: 77% snap share, 4 targets, 15.4% target share
Van Jefferson: 69% snap share, 3 targets, 11.5% target share
My pre-season projections had Woods ahead of Kupp for about one point per game. That was mainly because I thought they would have similar target and snap shares, but Woods would be involved sometimes in the running game. Week 1 showed me otherwise. Not only was Kupp the most targeted receiver, but he also was on the field with more snaps than Robert Woods. I still believe there will be volume for both pass-catchers to shine but I will continue to monitor the situation. On week 1 it seems like Kupp is WR1 and Woods WR2.
Van Jefferson could be an interesting add in deep leagues, he played almost as many snaps as Woods. Jefferson could start to carve a role as the third option in an offense that should be pass-happier against better teams in weeks to come.
Denver Broncos WR Room
Jerry Jeudy: 47% snap share, 7 targets, 19.4% target share
KJ Hamler: 36% snap share, 4 targets, 11.1% target share
Tim Patrick: 70% snap share, 4 targets, 11.1% target share
Courtland Sutton: 80% snap share, 3 targets, 8.3% target share
Jerry Jeudy is out for 4-6 weeks and the competition for targets is wide open in Denver. It was sad to see Jeudy injured after a good start to the 2021 season. Courtland Sutton was worse than expected, but he should have a clear path to top fantasy production. He was on the field for 80% of the snaps and he should improve week by week after a year off the field.
The WR to target on waivers is Tim Patrick even if they both had the same number of targets. We should not forget the existence of Noah Fant, so expectations should be lowered on Tim Patrick, he is destined to be, at best, the third receiving option on the team for at least six weeks.
Atlanta Falcons WR/TE Room
Calvin Ridley: 85% snap share, 8 targets, 22.9% target share
Russell Gage: 68% snap share, 2 targets, 5.7% target share
Olamide Zaccheaus: 26% snap share, 0 targets, 0.0% target share
Kyle Pitts: 68% snap share, 8 targets, 22.9% target share
Hayden Hurst: 60% snap share, 4 targets, 11.4% target share
I should start by admitting the Falcons may be worse than I expected, Matt Ryan was sacked three times and they didn’t score a single TD. Their best receiver had 51 yards, and nobody else had more than 35. It was bad on both sides of the ball. With that being said, I expect them to improve their performance in the weeks to come.
Olamide Zaccheaus is a fast drop, with only a 26% snap share, he won’t be useful in your fantasy lineup…in case you were hoping on a deep sleeper. Russell Gage seems to be the fourth option, behind Hurst, Pitts, and Ridley. Hayden Hurst is an interesting waiver in TE Premium leagues. He was still targeted 4 times and had a decent snap and target share.
The most important player to talk about is Kyle Pitts, throughout the off-season I thought he was being over-hyped in redraft. I didn’t think he could return the investment, I definitely preferred Hockenson. He may make me eat my words soon… He tied Ridley on target share and even though he didn’t have an impressive stat line, having a 23% target share in your first game as a rookie TE is something to be impressed of. There may be a good buy opportunity in some weeks if he continues with this “slow” start.
Hey, thanks for reading the article. My DMs are always open to any question, critic, or fantasy advice in any format. You can find me on Twitter @MisterMartinez9.
