Dynasty

Redraft Best Ball Primer

DFF Dynasty Daredevil

In this article, it’s time to look at the dynasty dynamite canisters. These are the guys that can explode in value or blow up and become nothing. I expect each of these players to do exactly that by the end of 2020. There’s no in-between, as I don’t foresee a mediocre outcome. Most of these players are on their “last chance” for dynasty owners. But, each has the upside to be a top asset.

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Damien Williams Opt-Out: Rapid Reaction

The likely Kansas City Chiefs starting running back, Damien Williams, has opted out for the 2020 NFL seasons due to COVID-19 concerns. He will sit the season out but who can blame him? The NFL players are just like you and me. They need to think of their families and themselves before anything else if that’s what they think is best.  From a fantasy/dynasty football perspective, this feels like the first “opt-out” seriously impacting our little world and deserves some attention.

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Miles Sanders Dynasty Profile

Miles Sanders: 2020 Dynasty Profile

Entering the second year of his rookie contract with one of the top offensive play-callers as his head coach has left me drooling at the idea of what Sanders’ ceiling could be. I see his value continuing to trend in a positive direction over the coming years as he establishes himself as a top 10 asset in all of fantasy football. I have him as the RB6 in my dynasty rankings, which is slightly ahead of his current RB7 ADP.

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2020 rookie busts

2020 Rookie Busts Part One

Now, it’s time to take a different slant on the 2020 rookie class. I want to look at the class from a dynasty perspective, specifically looking at the busts. When we look back in a few years, what players will we regret having selected in our rookie drafts? It’s not too late to move away from these players, so perhaps you might want to consider selling them before their value drops. I’m not necessarily saying that any of these players will completely bust, but I am saying that they won’t live up to their draft cost.

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Kahale Warring: 2020 Dynasty Profile

Warring fits the specifications of a fantasy football “sleeper” candidate like a glove. He has the willingness and competitiveness to handle run-blocking duties, and the talent to line up in the slot. Versatility is valuable in the NFL. If Warring wins the primary TE job for the Texans, he should be capable of staying on the field for the majority of the snaps. Having just turned 23 this offseason, any role Kahale carves out this coming season should be maintained, with the potential for growth into more opportunities, provided he stays healthy. He can be acquired late in drafts or for very minimal assets via trade in most dynasty leagues, and may even be available on waivers in a few.

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Jamison Crowder: 2020 Dynasty Profile

It never ceases to amaze me that the majority of people will continue to buy “brand names” items, regardless of the price. This holds true in nearly all facets of society and even extends to fantasy football. Jamison Crowder is not a brand name item. Crowder played in all 16 games last season, starting 12. He led the Jets in targets (122), catches (78), receiving yards (833), and receiving touchdowns (6). Crowder was also quarterback Sam Darnold’s favorite receiver and served as his reliable safety net time and time again.

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Vegas Receivers Smart Bet

Vegas Receivers: Where’s the Smart Bet?

The Raiders have one of the muddiest receiving groups in the NFL, with a quagmire of options. Based on their dynasty values, I’ll take a look at all the receiving options and give you the smart bet for 2020 and beyond. I already broke down the entire Raiders’ offense for redraft purposes, but I want to take more of a dynasty slant, focusing on the receiving group.

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A.J. Brown Dynasty Profile

A.J. Brown: 2020 Dynasty Profile

Brown is currently being drafted at the 3.06 in dynasty startups, making him the WR14. An interesting check is to compare a player’s dynasty ADP versus their re-draft ADP which can sometimes indicate where dynasty players are overvaluing youth. In redraft leagues, Brown is 4.08 which is the WR17. This indicates that Brown is expected to have a strong 2020 season, paired with only being 23 years old makes him a top tier dynasty asset.

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Carson Wentz: 2020 Dynasty Profile

Carson Wentz has been an excellent real-life quarterback after his rookie year, throwing at least three times as many touchdowns as interceptions each season. In 2017, Wentz had an MVP-type season for the 13 games he played, dominating the NFL and leading the Eagles to an 11-2 record in his starts. Unfortunately, Wentz tore his ACL near the end of 2017, causing him to miss the Eagles’ Super Bowl run.

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Dynasty Story: Kenyan Drake

Dynasty Story: Kenyan Drake

In a dynasty story, I’ll look at dynasty value and how a player has fluctuated over time, primarily based on news or events. Then, I’ll give a dynasty take on their future value and whether dynasty owners should buy or sell the player going forward. In my first dynasty story, I covered Mike Williams. While Williams has had somewhat of a roller coaster first three NFL seasons, it’s nothing compared to the next player’s journey. It’s time for a deep dive into Kenyan Drake.

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Anthony Miller Dynasty

Anthony Miller: 2020 Dynasty Profile

Anthony Miller was unstoppable at the University of Memphis. Breaking out in his sophomore year, he amassed over 3,500 years in three seasons. His best coming in his junior year where he had an absurd 96 catches, 1,462 yards, and 18 touchdowns. Miller was good enough to be drafted in the 2nd round by the Chicago Bears in the 2018 draft. Pegged as a guy who could be a massive star, Miller has been a little bit forgotten in the Bears offense since his arrival. In his rookie season, Miller grabbed 33 receptions for 423 yards and an impressive 7 touchdowns. As a result, he was a popular 2nd-year breakout candidate but he actually wound up finishing about the same for fantasy purposes in his second year.

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O.J. Howard Buy Low?

O.J. Howard, Buy Low?

Back in April, I wrote about Rob Gronkowski’s return to the NFL, as he came out of retirement to join the Buccaneers. While Gronkowski is one of the best tight ends of all time, the Buccaneers already had a solid young tight end in O.J. Howard. They even have a third tight end, Cameron Brate, who’s found fantasy relevance at times throughout his career. The question is: what should dynasty owners do with Howard now? Is he a buy low, or should you avoid him? Let’s jump into how to handle Howard going forward.

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Terry McLaurin Dynasty

Terry McLaurin: 2020 Dynasty Profile

It only took one game for Washington to know they made the right decision drafting Terry McLaurin 76th overall in 2019. He burst onto the scene to the tune of five catches for 125 yards and one touchdown. There were the usual ups and downs of a rookie season, but out of 14 games played, McLaurin finished with eight double-digit fantasy games landing at WR24 in standard and WR29 in PPR. 

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Russell Gage: 2020 Dynasty Profile

At first glance, nothing jumps off the page when reviewing Russell Gage’s season-long body of work to this point in his NFL career (or even in his college career for that matter). After shipping off a deteriorating Mohamed Sanu for a 2021 second-round pick in a rare fleecing of New England, the Falcons coaching staff put their trust in Gage to take over the team’s third receiver position. Gage enjoyed a 16% target share after taking over for Sanu, as his average offensive snaps per game increased from 12 to 48. He finished the season with 49 catches for 446 yards and one TD (but in the nine games post-Sanu he had 45 catches for 402 yards and one TD).

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Matthew Stafford: 2020 Dynasty Profile

Before 2019, Matthew Stafford appeared in every game for the Detroit Lions for eight consecutive seasons. In those seasons, Stafford averaged 4,465 yards and 27.5 TDs. The Lions finished 2nd, 1st, 5th, 10th, 5th, 10th, 10th, and 13th in pass attempts during that span. Stafford was playing some of his best football in 2019 under current OC Darrell Bevell, albeit in a partial season. Through eight games, Stafford was on pace to finish as the fantasy QB2 with 4,998 yards, 38 TDs, and 10 INTs.

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Lessons Learned from 2019 Regular Season

Are You a True Dynasty Contender?

In dynasty leagues, one of the toughest decisions that fantasy owners make is whether they are a true contender or not. Continuing to try and contend when you need to rebuild will set your dynasty team back for years. Therefore, it’s crucial to be able to take an objective look at your team, from top to bottom, and decide where you are.

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D.J. Moore: 2020 Dynasty Profile

Back in 2018, DJ Moore entered the NFL as a top wide receiver (WR) prospect. Posting impressive age-adjusted production at Maryland. He led the Terrapins passing attack during his breakout sophomore season at the age of 19. By the end of his career, Moore easily exceeded important production thresholds like career average scrimmage yards per play, receiving yards market share, and receiving yards per team pass attempt. D.J. Moore’s outstanding age-adjusted college production combined with elite athleticism, prototypical NFL size, and first-round draft capital made him an exciting WR prospect.

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Dynasty MVPs

2020 Dynasty MVPs

In 2019, Chris Godwin, Austin Ekeler, and Mark Andrews were dynasty MVPs. They gained extreme dynasty value and also produced as top options at their positions. I’m not necessarily saying that any or all of these players will make the jump. However, considering where each player’s value currently falls in dynasty leagues, they have the upside to demolish that value.

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Dynasty Story: Mike Williams

In April, I started writing a series focusing on one player at a time, called “A Redraft Journey.” I wrote about Austin Ekeler, Allen Robinson, and recently about Melvin Gordon. I love writing about redraft, but I realized that I could bring this style over to dynasty. In a dynasty story, I’ll look more at dynasty value and how a player has fluctuated over time, primarily based on news or events. Then, I’ll give a dynasty take on their future value and whether dynasty owners should buy or sell the player going forward. Let’s jump into Mike Williams, the subject of my first dynasty story.

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