O.J. Howard, Buy Low?

Back in April, I wrote about Rob Gronkowski’s return to the NFL, as he came out of retirement to join the Buccaneers. While Gronkowski is one of the best tight ends of all time, the Buccaneers already had a solid young tight end in O.J. Howard. They even have a third tight end, Cameron Brate, who’s found fantasy relevance at times throughout his career. The question is: what should dynasty owners do with Howard now? Is he a buy low, or should you avoid him? Let’s jump into how to handle Howard going forward.

Draft Profile

At Alabama, Howard was an integral part of Nick Saban’s offense, especially in his junior and senior years. In those two seasons, he caught 83 passes for 1,197 yards and five touchdowns. Howard displayed NFL-level ability as both a receiver and a blocker, becoming the consensus top tight end in a loaded 2017 tight end class.

In the 2017 NFL Draft, the Buccaneers selected Howard with the 19th overall pick, making him the first of three tight ends picked in the first round. Unlike the other two players, Evan Engram and David Njoku, Howard represented a complete prospect. The Buccaneers expected him to immediately challenge Brate for the starting position, even though tight ends don’t tend to produce early on in their careers. 

I want to emphasize that dynasty owners saw Howard as a generational tight end prospect. In 2017 rookie drafts, Christian McCaffrey, Corey Davis, Leonard Fournette, Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, and Mike Williams made up the clear top-six players. However, after those six, Howard was the consensus 1.07, ahead of eventual studs like Juju Smith-Schuster, Alvin Kamara, Chris Godwin, and Kareem Hunt. Even in a loaded class, dynasty owners wanted Howard on their teams, demonstrating just how hyped he was as a prospect.

NFL and Fantasy Stats

Here are Howard’s full NFL and fantasy stats.

Career Summary

In 2017, Howard started every game he played. He immediately stepped in as the Buccaneers’ every-down tight end, playing more snaps per game than Brate. However, Howard saw more time as a blocker, as Brate had almost double the targets and receptions that Howard did. Even on limited opportunities, Howard averaged an impressive 11.1 yards/target, which would have ranked 1st among qualifying tight ends. 

Unfortunately, Howard missed the final two games of the 2017 season with an ankle injury. While that injury left a poor taste in dynasty owners’ mouths, they saw Howard’s impressive rookie year for a tight end. He maintained his dynasty value from the previous season, remaining around a mid to late-1st rookie value.

Going into 2018, Howard had impressed Buccaneers’ head coach Dirk Koetter, who decided to use Howard more in the offense. Howard struggled through foot, ankle, and knee injuries in 2018, which limited him to only 10 games. However, Howard dominated when active, averaging 3.4 receptions and 56.5 yards per game throughout 2018. 

Once again, Howard excelled in yards/target with 11.8, leading the Buccaneers in that category. Considering the Buccaneers had Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson on the same offense, that makes Howard’s mark even more impressive. Due to Howard’s 2018 breakout, the only question surrounding him was health, as he failed to complete either of his first two NFL seasons. Everyone expected Howard to become a perennial top-five tight end, and he vaulted into the fifth-round of dynasty ADP during the 2019 offseason.

Unfortunately for Howard, everything went wrong for him in 2019. The Buccaneers fired Koetter and replaced him with Bruce Arians. Before the season, there was a pervasive narrative that Arians didn’t use tight ends in his offense. However, most dynasty owners thought that would change in 2019, as Arians had never had a tight end like Howard in his previous coaching stints.

Instead, Howard encountered a different problem throughout 2019. He ended up in Arians’ doghouse, and he saw the bench for a majority of the season. Arians did use tight ends in his offense, but he split the work almost equally between Howard and Brate. This approach was unlike Koetter’s style in 2018, who trusted Howard as his every-down starter when healthy. Howard never managed to find a rhythm, and he had no fantasy value in 2019.

Even though Howard didn’t succeed for fantasy owners, he still impressed in his raw metrics. He averaged 8.7 yards/target and 13.5 yards/reception, solid numbers from a tight end. While Howard fell from the peak of his first two seasons, he wasn’t bad when given targets. Howard’s problem was that his volume declined and that he didn’t score touchdowns at the same rate as his previous seasons.

Buy Low?

When I wrote my previous article, I expected the Buccaneers to trade Howard. They already committed $9 million to Gronkowski and $4.25 million to Brate for 2020, so Howard was expendable. However, since then, the Buccaneers haven’t traded Howard, and they also picked up his fifth-year option for 2021, worth about $6 million.

The only explanation for these moves is that the Buccaneers plan to run base 12 personnel, which Arians confirmed in recent interviews. As both Gronkowski and Howard are all-around tight ends, they can both play receiving and blocking roles. However, I expect Gronkowski to be the primary tight end and to play in single tight end sets. 

As the Buccaneers still have Brate, a pure receiver, I have no hope for Howard in 2020. Even though I think Howard will start over Brate due to his blocking skills, I believe Howard will get pulled off the field for Brate in some receiving situations. Behind the top two receivers in Evans and Godwin, I think there’s only room for Gronkowski to produce as a receiving threat for fantasy in 2020.

Howard only turns 26 years old in November, and he still has talent. Even so, I don’t want to buy him low. He’s going to continue to lose value as he fails to produce stats in 2020, and I’d prefer to buy during the season. I think there will come a point that you can buy Howard for a third-round rookie pick or even less, and perhaps I’ll pounce then. But for now, I’d rather stay away from an asset that I expect to decline in value over the coming months.

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.