In dynasty leagues, one of the toughest decisions that fantasy owners make is whether they are a true contender or not. Continuing to try and contend when you need to rebuild will set your dynasty team back for years. Therefore, it’s crucial to be able to take an objective look at your team, from top to bottom, and decide where you are.
Dumpster Fire
This category is the simplest. Most fantasy owners know that they have a dumpster fire on their hands. This type of team might have been an orphan, and it generally has few valuable assets. Often, their best players are old and lack dynasty value while their starting lineup is too weak to contend. Typically, a dumpster fire has traded away their future first-round rookie pick, making tanking impossible.
When you have a dumpster fire, just try to liquidate all of your players who have any value into rookie draft picks. I know it sounds brutal, but rookie draft picks are the one dynasty asset guaranteed to appreciate in value over time. Additionally, you have to evaluate your league. I hate to give this advice, but if you’re in an inactive league with a dumpster fire team, you might need to leave the league. Fixing a dumpster fire in a league that doesn’t trade is virtually impossible and won’t be fun. Save your effort for a project that will be more fun.
Rebuilding Teams
A rebuilding team is generally a team that comes into the 2020 season, knowing they will not contend for the 2020 championship. The first step in managing a rebuild is knowing and accepting that you have a rebuilding team. There are two main types of rebuilding teams: those that chose to rebuild from the startup draft and those that require a rebuild later on in a league.
Planned Rebuild
In the first case, you, as the dynasty owner, already know that you have a rebuilding roster. Typically, these types of “productive struggle” teams have multiple 2021 first-round picks, acquired during the 2019 or 2020 startup draft. These teams will often have loaded up on young assets and avoided selecting any older players since they planned to rebuild from the startup draft.
The fundamental principle of managing a planned rebuild is to remain patient. Generally, a productive struggle roster will peak in Year 3, although some can contend in Year 2 depending on the strength of that year’s rookie draft. With the 2020 rookie class being strong, there are undoubtedly some 2019 productive struggle rosters that are now contenders. In that case, read the contender section below.
Let’s say, though, that you drafted a rebuilding roster in a 2020 startup. In that situation, you know that you won’t be a contender in 2020. The key is to hold onto younger players that will still be relevant in 2021 and beyond. If you sell everything for draft picks, you’ll end up rebuilding forever. However, if you have some middle-aged veterans, like Robert Woods or Keenan Allen, I would suggest moving them in-season. Their prices will rise as they begin to score fantasy points, so be patient in making those roster moves.
Unplanned Rebuild
On the other hand, some teams run out of their life cycle as contenders and require a reboot to become competitive again. The first step is to realize that you’re in this situation. If your team has been on the playoff bubble but hasn’t truly been among the top teams in the league, you might need a rebuild. Additionally, if you have multiple players on the age cliff, such as Julio Jones and Travis Kelce, but aren’t one of the best teams in the league, you probably should rebuild.
In my opinion, a planned rebuild typically requires about two years to find success. Therefore, if you’re ripping up your team today, you should likely be shooting for the 2022 season as your target date to compete. The best way to rebuild is to commit to the process entirely and accept two years of losing. Half-measures will cause you to be in the middle of the road forever. Make sure that you lose as many games as possible and never trade away your own future first-round picks in a rebuild.
One of the best ways to rebuild is to target the draft class two years out. Dynasty owners think that 2022 is so far away and will often radically undervalue those picks. You can usually acquire 2022 1sts at a fraction of the cost of 2021 1sts. I believe that 2022 1sts should be worth around 70-75% of 2021 1sts, but they usually trade around half-price. I know it seems brutal to wait that long, but trust me, it’s the best way.
The same logic applies to acquiring injured players. In-season, injured players will come at a massive discount since they aren’t scoring fantasy points. There’s no way to take advantage of that right now, but it’s something to consider when managing a rebuilding team during the season. Between acquiring future picks and injured players, you’re sacrificing time to pursue value. That’s a key part of rebuilding and important to keep in mind.
Middle of the Road
The middle of the road is the worst place to be in dynasty leagues. This type of team often finished in the middle of the standings in 2019. It typically won’t have the firepower to compete with the top rosters in a league, but it also will win too many games to rebuild. As dynasty leagues progress over time, the league becomes stratified, with the best teams growing stronger and the bottom teams becoming weaker.
Therefore, the roster quality required to win a dynasty league increases as the league moves forward. My main advice for those in this situation is to pick a direction and stick to it. Do not accept being a mediocre team because you will remain there for eternity. Either sell off your young assets and draft picks for proven veterans and attempt to contend or do the opposite and try to rebuild.
This type of roster requires the most aggression and most skill to handle. Once you pick the direction you’re taking, you have to go all in. Don’t sell half your assets and leave some behind or only acquire a few win-now pieces. The goal is to win a championship eventually, and you’ll never get there if you don’t act decisively and aggressively.
In general, I recommend going for the rebuilding route since most middle of the road teams are too far away from the top to get there directly. It’s always easier to sell top players than to buy them, and future draft picks are consistently undervalued, especially in the middle of a season. Most dynasty teams that became dumpster fires were once middle of the road teams that didn’t accept that they needed to rebuild. Don’t join that group.
True Contender
A true contender is a team that should make the playoffs but isn’t the clear top team in the league. The most significant difference in dynasty leagues is determining the difference between a middle of the road team and a true contender. One way to do that is to use a roster evaluator tool to measure your team’s redraft strength against the rest of the league. Many sites, like FantasyPros, offer such a product.
However, if you don’t have access to that type of tool, you’ll have to assess your roster by hand. To do that, plot out the starting 2020 lineups for every team in your league and see where you rank. Be honest with yourself and use consensus redraft rankings instead of your own to avoid bias in this assessment. If your roster is clearly in the top half of your league, you have a true contender.
Once you’ve determined that you’re a contender, you need to look at your weaknesses. Generally, most contending teams will still have at least one position or roster spot that isn’t very strong. Then, using your roster assessment, look at the rosters of the worst teams in the league. If they have older veterans, I would suggest going to those teams first, offering some second or third-round draft picks for the cheaper veterans.
In addition to adding depth, improving the quality of your starting lineup is vital for contenders, especially in shallower leagues. If your league starts eight or fewer players, that’s considered a shallow league. In those formats, focus more on stud players and consolidating middling assets into those monster scorers. Having just one Christian McCaffrey-type player can be enough to vault a team into the playoffs in a shallow league. You will likely need at least two, if not three or four, of that type of player to win in a shallow league.
Overall, just be aware of your competition and league format and make sure you’ve set yourself up for true success. You never want to end up in the middle in dynasty leagues, so don’t hesitate to go all-in for a title if you have the foundation. Ensure that you do everything possible to win, as winning championships is why we all play dynasty in the first place.
Juggernaut
Like a dumpster fire, these teams are easy to handle. A juggernaut typically occurs late in the life cycle of a dynasty league, as one owner has consistently made good trades and draft picks. That owner now has a dominant roster, miles ahead of the rest of the league. These types of teams often have both the best players and depth across the board.
My main advice for managing a juggernaut roster is to avoid tinkering too much. Of course, you should still consider the best moves and trades to make. However, sometimes you’ve built a monster team, and the best thing is to reap the rewards. Dominate your league based on your past moves without destroying the successful foundation you’ve created. Remember that the other 11 owners will be gunning for you, so keep playing the waiver wire without getting complacent.
Unique 2020 Considerations
Lastly, I want to emphasize a big difference in 2020 that would not apply in a typical NFL season. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, players will test positive and will miss games during the 2020 season. Therefore, contenders should roster more depth pieces than usual, as you will need more players to get through a season.
Low-upside, older players are usually undervalued and make good contender buys in any season, but even more in 2020. Marvin Jones, Julian Edelman, Jamison Crowder, and other older receivers will come at a low price, even in this landscape. However, I would acquire those players today because their prices will increase rapidly as they become needed during the season. Just be aware that you’ll likely need 2-3 additional starting-caliber players compared to a typical season and act accordingly.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
