Dynasty Story: Mike Williams

In April, I started writing a series focusing on one player at a time, called “A Redraft Journey.” I wrote about Austin Ekeler, Allen Robinson, and recently about Melvin Gordon. I love writing about redraft, but I realized that I could bring this style over to dynasty. In a dynasty story, I’ll look more at dynasty value and how a player has fluctuated over time, primarily based on news or events. Then, I’ll give a dynasty take on their future value and whether dynasty owners should buy or sell the player going forward. Let’s jump into Mike Williams, the subject of my first dynasty story.

College Production and NFL Draft Profile

Williams played college football at Clemson from 2013-2016. In 2013, Williams played in a depth role behind Sammy Watkins, Martavis Bryant, and Adam Humphries. That year, he caught only 20 receptions for 316 yards and three touchdowns. 

Williams then broke out in 2014. Williams and Artavis Scott played the top two receiver roles. While Scott led the team in receptions and touchdowns, Williams finished first with 1,030 yards. He had 57 receptions and six touchdowns to go with his excellent yardage total. Since Williams had played well at a top school with a history of top receiver prospects, he was well on the radar after his 2014 season.

Unfortunately, Williams missed almost all of the 2015 season after breaking his collarbone in Clemson’s first game. Because of the injury, Williams decided to return to Clemson for the 2016 season instead of declaring for the 2016 NFL Draft. He balled out in 2016, with 98 receptions for 1,361 yards and 11 touchdowns. Williams outperformed Scott and all other Clemson receivers in all receiving categories as he finally became the absolute top receiver on the team.

Because of his stellar 2016 season, Williams decided to declare for the 2017 NFL Draft as a locked-in first-round pick. Throughout the offseason, Williams, Corey Davis, and John Ross competed to be the first receiver selected. While Davis was the first receiver off the board with the fifth overall selection, Williams was not far behind, going seventh to the Chargers. At the time, the Chargers saw Williams as their top long-term outside receiver and an excellent complement to slot receiver Keenan Allen.

In dynasty rookie drafts, Williams was the consensus 1.06 overall selection. He was the second receiver taken in most rookie drafts, behind Corey Davis. Drafters also preferred running backs Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, and Dalvin Cook over Williams. However, that group of six players represented a clear top tier in rookie drafts, so almost anyone who drafted Williams had to spend a top-six selection to acquire him.

NFL Stat Totals

Here are Williams’ full NFL stats.

2017 – Rookie Year Struggles

Williams got off to a bad start in the offseason before his rookie year. In May, he suffered a back injury that caused him to miss most of the Chargers’ offseason program. While the Chargers hoped that Williams would return for Week 1, he could not return until Week 6. 

Even once Williams returned, he remained behind Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin on the Chargers’ depth chart. He also suffered an additional knee injury in Week 12 that forced him to miss another game. As you can see from his paltry stat line, Williams made almost no impact for the Chargers or fantasy owners in 2017. He also wasn’t effective on the targets he had, catching less than half of them and averaging a measly 4.1 yards/target.

However, even though Williams did nothing on the field in 2017, he still was a first-round talent who dealt with injuries all season. The Chargers gave him snaps in every game he was healthy and attempted to incorporate him into the offense. They also had a plethora of offensive weapons in 2017, with Hunter Henry, Antonio Gates, Melvin Gordon, and Austin Ekeler all seeing significant targets, on top of all the wide receivers. Therefore, I still had some optimism for Williams heading into 2018, given his draft capital and talent.

2018 – A Weird Season

In 2018, Williams managed to stay healthy for an entire season, allowing him a full opportunity to display his talent. The Chargers also lost Hunter Henry to an ACL injury before the season began, opening a red-zone role for Williams. Additionally, they phased Benjamin out of the offense, promoting Williams to the starting lineup. Williams played alongside Tyrell Williams as outside receivers, with Allen in the slot.

Mike and Tyrell Williams had almost identical lines in 2018, outside of one key difference. Mike scored five extra touchdowns, with 10 to Tyrell’s five. Apart from touchdowns, their stats were essentially equal. Tyrell played more snaps than Mike, 76.5% compared to 62.5%. They split the outside role in 2WR sets, and both played almost all snaps in 3WR sets.

While Mike Williams impressed with 10 touchdowns in 2018 and finished second on the Chargers in targets, he still didn’t take the kind of step forward fantasy owners wanted. He only managed 66 targets and 43 receptions, far off the numbers of a typical alpha receiver. Allen continued to dominate the passing game with 136 targets and 97 receptions, relegating Williams to a secondary option at best. Because of his insane touchdown efficiency, I considered Williams to be a massive dynasty sell after 2018, as there’s no way he could sustain those numbers going forward.

2019 – Reversal of Fortune

After 2018, the Chargers let Tyrell Williams walk in free agency, leaving them with only Allen and Williams as significant wide receivers. Williams finally evolved into an every-down player, taking almost 80% of total snaps on the year in only 15 games. He also had far more targets and massively improved his yardage total, becoming a featured part of the Chargers’ offense. 

Williams averaged 11.1 yards/target and 20.4 yards/reception. He finished third in yards/target and first in yards/reception among all receivers, so he was an effective receiver in 2019. Unfortunately, Williams only caught two touchdowns in 2019. He went from 10 touchdowns on 66 targets to two touchdowns on 90 targets. 

Part of that decline may have been due to Philip Rivers and his poor play, but I believe it’s just an anomaly. I don’t think Williams is particularly talented or untalented at catching touchdowns. I believe his wild swing in touchdown rate is due to variance, nothing more.

However, whatever the reason, Williams failed to break out as a top-24 PPR receiver in his third year. At this point, I understand that dynasty owners started to grow impatient and rightly dropped his dynasty value. Williams turned 25 years old in October, so he’s no longer a very young player. Considering that his price is a mid-first round rookie pick, he’s failed to deliver on that cost.

The Future

Everything has changed for Williams going into 2020. After 14 years, the Chargers moved on from Rivers as their starter, replacing him with Tyrod Taylor. They also drafted Justin Herbert with the sixth overall pick as their future quarterback. I broke down the Chargers’ 2020 offense for redraft purposes, and I noted that both Taylor and Herbert represent significant short-term downgrades from Rivers. Taylor is a running quarterback who has never thrown for massive yardage totals while Herbert is a raw prospect who isn’t ready to play in his rookie year.

Therefore, I have little to no hope for Williams as a fantasy receiver in 2020. I don’t expect him to provide much PPR value, even though the Chargers did little to address their receiving weapons. The Chargers also picked up Williams’ 2021 fifth-year option, likely guaranteeing that Williams will be on the team through 2021. 

At this point, I think there are still some people that believe in Williams’ upside. I would try to sell him, as I prefer multiple receivers in Williams’ value range. I would rather own Darius Slayton, Mecole Hardman, or Brandon Aiyuk over Williams, and I think Williams’ value will only further decline after 2020. It’s an unfortunate situation since I still believe in Williams’ talent. He might be one of those who might have broken out in a different world, but I’d like to move on in this world.

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.