Dynasty

Brandin Cooks: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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Brandin Cooks was drafted by the New Orleans Saints in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft. Cooks was a part-time player as a rookie, but he really broke out in his sophomore season, going over 1,100 receiving yards and scoring nine TDs. That 2015 campaign was the beginning of a four-year stretch in which Cooks never finished worse than the WR15. He also topped 115 targets and 1,000 receiving yards in each of those seasons despite playing for three different teams. In 2019, Cooks’ streak of dominance came to an end. He appeared in 14 games for the Rams but finished with career-lows in receptions and TDs as he spent the majority of the season battling concussion issues.

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Deebo Samuel: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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I believe that now is the perfect time to strike and acquire shares of Samuel in your dynasty league. Once he returns to the lineup and demonstrates that he’s healthy, his price will rise. This Jones fracture is a short-term injury, and it shouldn’t dramatically decrease Samuel’s value. Even so, dynasty owners tend to overreact, and I’ve noticed a drop in Samuel’s trade value and his ADP.  Buy on that dip, because this injury is a blip on the long-term radar. Samuel is only 24 years old and he has his whole career ahead of him. Most rookie wide receivers don’t show half of what Samuel showed in his rookie year, and this is a chance to get in on a stellar dynasty asset at his basement value.

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#TomBomb: Baltimore Ravens

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No doubt, you probably had to double back to make sure this was a “buy-low” column. Don’t worry, Old Tom fully understands your confusion. I’ll say this, your potential shock factor is going to be off the charts when you get to number one. See, here’s something I always like to remember. The phrase “buying low” is of course a relative one. Given Old Tom’s self-proclaimed foundation of simplicity and subjectivity, I enjoy a good bit of relativism from time to time. With that said, Marquise Brown is an individual I feel is well worth his current price, as it will rise much higher in the coming months and consequently years.

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Travis Kelce: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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Dynasty owners don’t want to invest in Kelce at his current cost of a third-round startup pick and the dynasty TE2. However, if you’re a contender, Kelce is worth far more to your team than what you could recoup for him in a trade. He’s tied to Mahomes for the foreseeable future, although his contract does expire after 2021.  I expect the Chiefs to retain Kelce throughout his career, though, as he’s Mahomes’ favorite weapon. Tight ends can produce into their mid-to-late 30s, and I don’t see any reason why Kelce won’t be a part of that group. If you sold Tony Gonzalez in dynasty leagues before his age-31 season, you would have been very sorry, and I believe Kelce is the same type of transcendent player. Therefore, I wouldn’t seek to trade him off my roster unless I’m in a deep and long-term rebuild.

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Tony Pollard: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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The Cowboys selected Pollard in the fourth round of the 2019 NFL Draft out of Memphis. Coming into the NFL, most analysts saw Pollard as a dynamic receiving threat, and as a passing-down complement to starter Ezekiel Elliott. However, during Elliott’s contract holdout before the 2019 season, the Cowboys made it clear that Pollard was Elliott’s direct backup. Pollard’s redraft and dynasty value soared as Elliott was in danger of missing games due to his contract situation.

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Sam Darnold: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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Darnold hasn’t been a usable fantasy quarterback in his first two NFL seasons. The Jets picked Darnold with the third overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, and he immediately won the Week 1 starting job. However, the 2018 Jets lacked receiving weapons, and Darnold couldn’t overcome that obstacle as a rookie. There were a couple of bright spots in Robby Anderson, Quincy Enunwa, and rookie tight end Chris Herndon, but none of them were star players. The team fired head coach Todd Bowles after a 4-12 season.

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#TomBomb: New York Jets

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What we’ve seen over and over again in this league is that teams seem to have the most success when they can capitalize on a rookie quarterback treaty. Coupling this reality with one just as obvious is the fact that Darnold has had some pretty unimpressive weapons throughout his time in New York. This is still a work in progress. But, make no mistake about it, progress has been made. While the loss of Robby Anderson hurts, the addition of Breshad Perriman coupled with the drafting of Denzel Mims should more than make up for said departure. Also, worth noting is both Bell’s second year in the system as well as (finger’s crossed) the return of Chris Herndon at tight end.

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#TomBomb: New England Patriots

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One thing Old Tom always likes to do is open up the lines of communication, with league mates, to see what their asking price is for those “aging vets”. This becomes, all the more imperative when said veteran players find themselves in less than desirable positions. Or, in Mr. White’s case, they find themselves all of a sudden void of one Tom Brady. Now, we go buy. The thing about 28-year-old running backs is, they aren’t THAT old, in the grand scheme of things. At least in Old Tom’s eyes. The thing about 28-year-old running backs who have made their mark primarily catching the ball and on 3rd downs is, they are even less old than potentially perceived. Call this a hot take, if you will, but I just firmly believe that regardless of how that New England QB position unfolds in 2020 it’s almost irrelevant to what James White is going to bring to the table.

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Patrick Mahomes Dynasty Profile

Patrick Mahomes: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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The Chiefs selected Mahomes with the 10th overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft as the long-term successor to incumbent starter Alex Smith. In 2017, Mahomes sat on the bench for almost the entire season, only playing Week 17 while Smith rested for the playoffs. After the 2017 season, the Chiefs decided to trade Smith to the Redskins, opening the door for Mahomes as the definite 2018 starting quarterback.

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#TomBomb: Miami Dolphins

#TomBomb: Miami Dolphins

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So let’s get this breakdown started with a little context. While I am plugging Matt Breida in at #3, here, I am prefacing it with the spoiler that his fellow backfield running-mate is grabbing that coveted #1 spot. Nonetheless, by investing pennies on the dollar for Breida, you could very well be stealing this year’s Austin Ekeler. Yes, I just said that. Do I have your attention, now? Okay, maybe Old Tom got a little bit carried away. However, I’m still going to hold to the belief that Breida offers you some real potential value. 

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Why Veterans Key Champs

Why Veterans Are the Key to Fantasy Championships: A 2020 Edition

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In dynasty leagues, there’s always a delicate balance that owners must forge between dynasty value and winning championships. In the end, the goal is to win the most championships possible, as quickly as possible. However, sometimes, dynasty owners need to rebuild and trade away their veterans to return to contending status.

There’s nothing wrong with that approach, as I detailed in an article guiding dynasty owners in determining whether they’re contenders or not. Taking a mild step backward to take a big step forward is a healthy decision and often tough to make. With that said, I want to move away from individual dynasty teams and look more closely at how two specific groups of players have performed over time. It’s time for an in-depth breakdown of what rookies and older veterans do for your roster.

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#TomBomb: Buffalo Bills

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For Old Tom, there are not many things more enjoyable than writing about athletes with fun nicknames. Enter, John “Smokey” Brown. Coming off the WR20 (PPR) finish, in his first go-around with the Buffalo Bills, Mr. Brown is poised to continue this level of production, at the very least, in 2020. When I look at the addition of Stefon Diggs, to this ball club, I continue to find myself liking Brown all the more. In my mind, Mr. Diggs is as talented as they come, and the clear-cut WR1 on this roster. For John Brown and his fantasy outlook, this is the best news he could have received. Think of it like this – for all of 2019, John Brown wore a nice set of Fragraim adjustable ankle weights.

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2020 rookie busts part two

2020 Rookie Busts Part Two

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The 2020 rookie class was a loaded group that had dynasty owners’ attention for years. I’ve written about the class three separate times: before the NFL Draft, live during the NFL Draft, and about a month ago. I’ve included all the links to those previous series at the bottom of the page. However, in those articles, I focused on the rookies from a redraft perspective and how they will impact redraft rosters in 2020.

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David Montgomery Dynasty Profile

David Montgomery: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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David Montgomery is a polarizing player for fantasy owners. By all accounts, from a production standpoint, Montgomery had a relatively successful inaugural season. His 1,074 yards from scrimmage and 7 TDs were similar to Le’Veon Bell’s rookie season in which he accounted for 1259 scrimmage yards and 8 TDs. The primary difference was that Bell caught 20 more passes as a rookie. But Monty (71.4%) had a higher catch percentage than Bell (68.2%). Montgomery gathered 889 rushing yards on 242 carries for a 3.7-yard average, while Bell in his rookie season mustered 860 rushing yards on 244 carries for a 3.5-yard average.

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Michael Gallup Dynasty Profile

Michael Gallup: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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Michael Gallup’s  dynasty profile is an interesting story. He was drafted out of Colorado State in the 3rd round of the 2018 NFL Draft. A JUCO transfer from Butler Community college, Gallup played his junior and senior seasons at the FBS Division I level. Here he featured as a key piece of his team’s offense, earning a 97th percentile target share and 74th percentile dominator rating. 

Gallup had a fairly underwhelming NFL rookie season, but in his second year of professional football, Gallup broke out for 1,100 yards and six scores for 66 receptions from 113 targets. 

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Rashaad Penny: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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I wrote about Penny back in February, but a lot has changed since then. The Seahawks selected Penny out of San Diego State with the 27th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Coming into the NFL, Seattle expected Penny to fill their starting running back position. Dynasty drafters flocked to Penny, and some spent the 1.02 rookie pick on Penny, behind Saquon Barkley at the 1.01.

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