Dynasty

Anthony Miller Dynasty

Anthony Miller: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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Anthony Miller was unstoppable at the University of Memphis. Breaking out in his sophomore year, he amassed over 3,500 years in three seasons. His best coming in his junior year where he had an absurd 96 catches, 1,462 yards, and 18 touchdowns. Miller was good enough to be drafted in the 2nd round by the Chicago Bears in the 2018 draft. Pegged as a guy who could be a massive star, Miller has been a little bit forgotten in the Bears offense since his arrival. In his rookie season, Miller grabbed 33 receptions for 423 yards and an impressive 7 touchdowns. As a result, he was a popular 2nd-year breakout candidate but he actually wound up finishing about the same for fantasy purposes in his second year.

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O.J. Howard Buy Low?

O.J. Howard, Buy Low?

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Back in April, I wrote about Rob Gronkowski’s return to the NFL, as he came out of retirement to join the Buccaneers. While Gronkowski is one of the best tight ends of all time, the Buccaneers already had a solid young tight end in O.J. Howard. They even have a third tight end, Cameron Brate, who’s found fantasy relevance at times throughout his career. The question is: what should dynasty owners do with Howard now? Is he a buy low, or should you avoid him? Let’s jump into how to handle Howard going forward.

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Terry McLaurin Dynasty

Terry McLaurin: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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It only took one game for Washington to know they made the right decision drafting Terry McLaurin 76th overall in 2019. He burst onto the scene to the tune of five catches for 125 yards and one touchdown. There were the usual ups and downs of a rookie season, but out of 14 games played, McLaurin finished with eight double-digit fantasy games landing at WR24 in standard and WR29 in PPR. 

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Russell Gage: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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At first glance, nothing jumps off the page when reviewing Russell Gage’s season-long body of work to this point in his NFL career (or even in his college career for that matter). After shipping off a deteriorating Mohamed Sanu for a 2021 second-round pick in a rare fleecing of New England, the Falcons coaching staff put their trust in Gage to take over the team’s third receiver position. Gage enjoyed a 16% target share after taking over for Sanu, as his average offensive snaps per game increased from 12 to 48. He finished the season with 49 catches for 446 yards and one TD (but in the nine games post-Sanu he had 45 catches for 402 yards and one TD).

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Matthew Stafford: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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Before 2019, Matthew Stafford appeared in every game for the Detroit Lions for eight consecutive seasons. In those seasons, Stafford averaged 4,465 yards and 27.5 TDs. The Lions finished 2nd, 1st, 5th, 10th, 5th, 10th, 10th, and 13th in pass attempts during that span. Stafford was playing some of his best football in 2019 under current OC Darrell Bevell, albeit in a partial season. Through eight games, Stafford was on pace to finish as the fantasy QB2 with 4,998 yards, 38 TDs, and 10 INTs.

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Lessons Learned from 2019 Regular Season

Are You a True Dynasty Contender?

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In dynasty leagues, one of the toughest decisions that fantasy owners make is whether they are a true contender or not. Continuing to try and contend when you need to rebuild will set your dynasty team back for years. Therefore, it’s crucial to be able to take an objective look at your team, from top to bottom, and decide where you are.

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D.J. Moore: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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Back in 2018, DJ Moore entered the NFL as a top wide receiver (WR) prospect. Posting impressive age-adjusted production at Maryland. He led the Terrapins passing attack during his breakout sophomore season at the age of 19. By the end of his career, Moore easily exceeded important production thresholds like career average scrimmage yards per play, receiving yards market share, and receiving yards per team pass attempt. D.J. Moore’s outstanding age-adjusted college production combined with elite athleticism, prototypical NFL size, and first-round draft capital made him an exciting WR prospect.

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Dynasty MVPs

2020 Dynasty MVPs

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In 2019, Chris Godwin, Austin Ekeler, and Mark Andrews were dynasty MVPs. They gained extreme dynasty value and also produced as top options at their positions. I’m not necessarily saying that any or all of these players will make the jump. However, considering where each player’s value currently falls in dynasty leagues, they have the upside to demolish that value.

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Dynasty Story: Mike Williams

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In April, I started writing a series focusing on one player at a time, called “A Redraft Journey.” I wrote about Austin Ekeler, Allen Robinson, and recently about Melvin Gordon. I love writing about redraft, but I realized that I could bring this style over to dynasty. In a dynasty story, I’ll look more at dynasty value and how a player has fluctuated over time, primarily based on news or events. Then, I’ll give a dynasty take on their future value and whether dynasty owners should buy or sell the player going forward. Let’s jump into Mike Williams, the subject of my first dynasty story.

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Austin Ekeler: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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Austin Ekeler: Los Angeles Charger and defier of the odds. The UDFA out of Western State blew the top off every fantasy analyst’s big board last year by finishing as the RB4. Oh, and he shared the load with Melvin Gordon from weeks 5 onward. He was electrifying every step of the way finishing second among running backs in both catches and receiving yards, plus finishing number one in yards per touch. Ekeler makes his living in PPR leagues due to his ability in the passing game, both as a reliable check-down and a threat out of the backfield where he played 30% of his snaps. How good is he as a receiver? Since 2017, Ekeler is the number one receiving back in the NFL ranked by PFF at 94.2. Numbers two and three on that list? Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara. Enough said.

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Karp’s Favorite Fantasy Format

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No matter the format, the most important thing is that you and your league mates enjoy playing together. Play the types of leagues you like, and feel free to try new leagues. However, it’s also okay if you don’t want to play a specific format, like how I feel about IDP leagues. Just be a good person and an active owner, and you’ll enjoy your time in this world.

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UDFA Unraveled: WRs

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As the post-draft hype begins to fade and teams start looking for any asset on the waiver wire that they believe can help bolster their roster, everyone is looking for that next edge. In a recent argument on @TaleofTwoRivals, we bantered quickly about the value of UDFAs in a dynasty league but reached no real conclusion. I began to think of who can be this year’s Preston Williams. Who can take the mantle of Tony Romo, Arian Foster, and a few others and carry a team to the next level? Who can you buy low on? Who might be on the waiver wire? What follows is a case study of UDFAs who have finished in the top 24 of their position in a fantasy season, how their team responded to that success (were replaced via free agency, the draft, etc.) and what happened in the following year.

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UDFA Unraveled: RBs

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As the post-draft hype begins to fade and teams start looking for any asset on the waiver wire that they believe can help bolster their roster, everyone is looking for that next edge. In a recent argument on @TaleofTwoRivals, we bantered quickly about the value of UDFAs in a dynasty league but reached no real conclusion. I began to think of who can be this year’s Preston Williams. Who can take the mantle of Tony Romo, Arian Foster, and a few others and carry a team to the next level? Who can you buy low on? Who might be on the waiver wire? What follows is a case study of UDFAs who have finished in the top 24 of their position in a fantasy season, how their team responded to that success (were replaced via free agency, the draft, etc.) and what happened in the following year.

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Player Personnel Groupings for Dynasty

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NFL teams represent personnel groupings with a two-number phrase. For example, you might have heard “11 personnel” mentioned in some of my articles. The first number refers to the number of running backs on the field, while the second number refers to the number of tight ends. Then, since there are five eligible receivers, if you subtract the sum of both numbers from five, you get the number of wide receivers. For example, an 11 personnel group denotes a one RB, one TE, and three WR formation, which is the standard base offense in today’s NFL. For dynasty owners, 11 and 12 personnel are the two main formations, and I’ll break down each in detail.

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Curtis Samuel: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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Curtis Samuel is now entering this 4th year in the NFL after being drafted in the 2nd round of the 2017 NFL Draft. Statistically, he has improved each season. While in the last year of his rookie contract with the Panthers, could he take another step forward? A lot of production and fantasy points were left on the table in 2019 and with some new pieces added to the puzzle in Carolina, dynasty owners wonder if his potential has been crushed or unlocked.

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Derrick Henry Contract Extension: Rapid Reaction

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Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans have come to an agreement that will keep the bruising running back in town for years to come. First reported by Ian Rapaport, the deal got done just an hour before the 4:00 P.M EST deadline for teams to sign franchise-tagged players to long term deals. While the exact details have yet to be disclosed, we know via Adam Schefter that the deal is a 4-year, $50 million contract with $25.5 million guaranteed. This moves him up a spot from the fifth highest-paid running back by average annual value (AAV) in 2020 to the fourth, leapfrogging David Johnson. More importantly for Henry, it moves him up to fourth in total value, just behind Le’Veon Bell at $52.5 million. With the workhorse back staying in Tennessee, what does this mean for the Titans offense?

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Tyler Lockett: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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Tyler Lockett finally stepped into the number one wideout role for the Seattle Seahawks in 2019 and produced elite numbers when he was healthy. In 2019, Lockett played in over 90% of the offensive snaps in 8 of his first 9 games. After he was hospitalized during week 10 against the 49ers, he was only able to hit 90% of offensive snaps again one time the rest of the way. Prior to the injury, Lockett had amassed 767 yards and 6 scores through 9 weeks. In the 7 weeks after, and including the game he was injured in, he only gained 290 yards and 2 scores. In those first 9 weeks, Lockett was the third-best wide receiver in fantasy.

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