#TomBomb
Buy-Low Dynasty Assets
~ Las Vegas Raiders ~
3. Darren Waller
You know, it’s funny. I remember lounging in my La-Z-Boy recliner almost one year ago, to the day, and seeing Darren Waller’s name amongst 2020s predicted top 10 TE’s, by some of the very best in the industry. My initial reaction was to scoop him up, wherever possible. After this happened though, I immediately found myself wanting to trade him for a lofty return. However, bad luck hit when I found myself as the lone believer, in most of my leagues. Eventually, I concluded that Waller was just another dart throw and I wanted to invest in a much higher-ceilinged asset. Oh, the folly of man. Well, as luck would have it, Mr. Waller not only lived up to his lofty expectations, he surpassed them by clocking in as your 2019 TE3 (PPR).
And now 365 days later Old Tom is here to reinforce what we probably already know, on a subconscious level – Darren ain’t done. Whatever excuse you’re making for how he pulled this off, I’m here to tell you that you need to stop. If you find yourself falling back on “luck” you’re just plain wrong. You might throw out something like, “Well, I’m sure there will be some TD regression.” If so, then you have simply refused to see reality, as #83 only hauled in three of those last season.
Now, if your argument for not getting caught up in the hype is that you usually find yourself discounting TE’s outside of guys like Kittle, Kelce, and Andrews then okay, fair enough. We all have our strategies, and I don’t totally disagree with that one. Nonetheless, at some point, you have to start to consider what the criteria are for entering such an elite group of positional players. Assuming health, Darren Waller has quite a few positive vibes working in his favor. Fresh off his 27th birthday, DW is coming off 117 targets and, as mentioned above, was able to produce an elite finish off just three endzone visits. Additionally, Waller has only logged 16 games (all of 2019) of more than 41% of the offensive snap share. Talk about tire tread!
Not only is this WR-turned-TE good with the ball in his hands, but he’s also able to tap into his WR pedigree and produce down the field:
Look, I don’t know what will happen with Derek Carr and this Raiders offense. Again, I’m still perfecting the art of fortune-telling. All I’m saying is if you’re still finding yourself overlooking the obvious with Waller, you might just be one of those anti-Raiders people, and nothing more.
2. Josh Jacobs
Friends, friends, friends. Please, have a seat. This is one of those takes that has a way of getting Old Tom all excited. Simply because the one thing I appreciate more than anything else is pure talent. When it comes to Mr. Jacobs, I think we’ve found one of the purest the NFL has to offer. “Bro! Again, stop using 1.01 rookie selections as your buy-lows, that’s not how this works.”
Well, it kind of is when said individuals find themselves disrespected. Then, according to this Old Tom, you have the greatest of buying low opportunities. I mean, at the end of the day, as long as you can cut the check for less money than something is objectively worth, you’re technically buying low, no?
Now, while I can’t explain why some don’t value #28 as a top 10 dynasty RB (RB10 for Old Tom) I can do my best to convince you he is. Though 2019 was a season, unfortunately, cut short by injuries (13 games) Jacobs was still able to finish as your RB21 (PPR) while only averaging 56% of his team’s offensive snap shares. Extrapolating those numbers out across all 16 games would have given Jacobs the RB12 (PPR) finish. Regardless of his season-ending placement, there’s no denying that almost everyone in the dynasty football industry is fully on board with the special talent Mr. Jacobs possesses. As simply a pure runner, Jacobs has an elusive nature to his style that leaves many defenders grasping at air. In fact, in only 13 games played, Jacobs tallied the most missed tackles forced across the league, with 69.
To put that into perspective, Nick Chubb finished second on this list, with 66 missed tackles forced while doing so across 16 games and a 69% offensive snap share. Long story short, Jacobs accomplished more with significantly less opportunity than his peers. When one looks at Jacobs and his PPR dynasty value, the obvious red flag becomes his usage in the passing game. Registering only 27 targets resulting in 20 receptions for 166 yards and no touchdowns, it becomes understandable why some might not be thrilled with his ability to enter a higher tier of dynasty RBs. I suppose if that’s one’s outlook, I just hope said individual is a Jacobs’ owner, in one of Old Tom’s leagues.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, talent is talent. And I’m all for investing in talent. The way Old Tom looks at it, Josh Jacobs’ RB21 (PPR) finish and RB12 (extrapolated finish) is his floor. I don’t foresee too many scenarios where he accounts for less than 20 receptions in a season, moving forward. If that is the case, can you imagine what his ceiling is, with even the slightest uptick in both targets and offensive snap share percentage?
My friends, do yourself a solid and penny up for Josh Jacobs now. Before his price begins to skyrocket.
1. Bryan Edwards
Okay, I’ll admit that Old Tom has been struck with a very severe case of “Rookie Fever”. While my head is telling me to take a deep breath and remove myself from the situation, my heart is watching Mr. Edwards take that very breath away, with every graphically designed illustration I see.
For any and every dynasty purpose I can think of, the acquisition of #89 to your squad is what Old Tom likes to call a must. Now, before you misunderstand what I’m saying, I’ll begin to speak more clearly. I’m not telling you that Bryan Edwards is about to pull off a 1998 Randy Moss type rookie campaign. Though, at 6’3 215 lbs, Mr. Edwards is fully equipped with the type of frame that allows for recurring highlight-reel grabs, like the one he pulled off against Tennessee last year:
Nonetheless, even with the unfortunate news surrounding Tyrell Williams, I still have plenty of reservations about Mr. Edwards 2020 outlook. Especially with the reality that COVID has placed on all incoming rookies. However, with such a large opportunity opening at WR for this Las Vegas Raiders’ organization, I do whole-heartedly believe that Bryan Edwards will use this 2020 season to tillage his game in a way that produces one of the most bountiful harvests this league will taste for years to come.
What do you do? Well, you simply find a way to pull #89 over to your ball club. There might very well be a slightly-bigger buying window in a few weeks, should Edwards find himself a bit slow out of the gate. However, the flip to that is an overall lack of WR talent for the Raiders forces Carr to heavily target his biggest wideout over and over and over again. In which case any shot at an opening to buy, on the cheap, is slammed in your face.
Ahhh… ’tis the art of buying low, in dynasty. Good luck, my friends.
I genuinely thank you for taking the time to read my article. You can find my other articles on this site here. I also kindly welcome you to follow me on Twitter @BombadilFantasy. Additionally, I welcome you to explore #TomBomb: Simplicity & Subjectivity. Both of these platforms, my friends, is where you’ll find as many #TomBombs as your heart can desire. Remember, while I have quite an extensive history and the wisdom to show for it, I’m still perfecting my craft of fortune-telling. It is this reality of uncertainty that plays directly into my foundation of simplicity and subjectivity. Nonetheless, you have my assurance that you’re in great hands with Old Tom Bombadil. Hey dol! merry dol! ring a dong dillo!
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