The Rookie Rankings continue with Running Backs 1-3. Playoffs are set and you’re either in or out. You should always be targeting rookies regardless of your situation and level of stress. So we’ll discuss The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly Truth of the top 2021 NFL Draft prospects to help you gameplan your playoff push or rebuild for 2022. Make sure you’re caught up on Running Backs 7-10 and 4-6.
3 – Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers
Regular Season Stats
Games Started: 8 | Games Played: 9 | PFF Grade: 73.6
Fantasy Scoring: Standard: 119 (RB19) | PPR: 135.5 (RB22)
Measurements: HT: 5’10” | WT: 201 | 40: 4.38 | Shuttle: 4.19 | Vert: 37.5 | Cone: 6.94
Rushing: 165/759/5 | YPG: 84.3 | YPC: 4.6 | YAC: 385 | YBC: 374 | BrkTkl: 12 | RZ%: 41.9
Snap Percentage: 47.7%
Receiving: 17/126/0 | RPG: 1.9 | YPG: 14 | YPC: 7.41 | YAC: 144
Target Percentage: 5%
The Good
Elijah Mitchell was the waiver and late-round rookie draft boom of the season. The 49ers’ rookie was already one of my Top 5 running backs before the draft and I was disappointed to see him fall to San Francisco in the sixth round. Many, including myself, assumed Trey Sermon would emerge as “The Guy” during the offseason and Mitchell would be a backup getting most of his work on special teams. However, HC Kyle Shanahan had more than one idea that ruined fantasy gameplans like making Sermon a healthy scratch. Mostert was injured per usual and the Legend of Elijah Mitchell begins.
Mitchell was one of the most underrated athletes out of this crop of RBs and has ideal burst, speed, and agility to be a perfect fit for the one-cut outside-zone scheme that’s been copied by multiple teams in the NFL and has thrived on the ground in his rookie season. He’s a decisive runner with some of the best cutback ability in the draft. Mitchell cut weight to add speed and explosiveness and it’s paid off. Hopefully not at the cost of his health.
The Bad
I’ve had Mitchell as high as my Rookie RB2 most of the season and I’ve had to finally move him down because of his constant bout with injuries coupled with his draft capital. He’s missed four games with injury and has carried a designation on the weeks he has played. You have to begin to wonder if his body change has had an effect on his ability to hold up to three-down work. The 49ers spent the draft capital to double-dip at a position because of the injury issues and they find themselves in the same situation again while fighting for a playoff spot. The team has few picks next draft and plenty of holes on defense but the injuries and sixth-round capital are a reason for pause.
Lastly, Mitchell is still a 49ers’ running back and won’t get much usage in the passing game and fantasy production will depend on the rushing attack. It’s fortunate that he’s one of the best rushing systems in the league but that still could cap his upside as a fantasy RB1. He has the ball skills to be an asset in the passing game but it’s rare that a team has a tight end, running back, and YAC specialist receiver all be consistent fantasy producers since their targets come from the same area of the field.
The Ugly Truth
Elijah Mitchell is the ideal 49ers running back: An injury-prone home-run hitter that will barely be utilized in the passing game but he should be an auto-start with a safe rushing floor every week he’s healthy. He has run tough and played through injuries all season and should be an integral piece of San Francisco’s future. I wouldn’t sell the house to get him but his upside and athleticism shouldn’t be ignored.
2 – Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
Regular Season Stats
Games Started: 1 | Games Played: 12 | PFF Grade: 72.3
Fantasy Scoring: Standard: 116 (RB20) | PPR: 148.9 (RB20)
Measurements: HT: 5’10” | WT: 212 | 40: 4.55 | Shuttle: 4.09 | Vert: 36 | Cone: 6.97
Rushing: 140/670/2 | YPG: 55.8 | YPC: 4.79 | YAC: 349 | YBC: 140 | BrkTkl: 26 | RZ%: 35.1
Snap Percentage: 50.1%
Receiving: 33/269/2 | RPG: 2.8 | YPG: 22.4 | YPC: 8.15 | YAC: 284
Target Percentage: 10.3%
The Good
There’s not much to not like about Javonte Williams. I’ve been hesitant to rank him too highly all season with Melvin Gordon in town and how little faith I had in HC Vic Fangio. I factor coaching much higher into my dynasty rankings than most analysts but it should be impossible for me or Fangio to hold him back anymore. The Broncos traded up to take him in the second round but have been working him behind Melvin Gordon. It’s been frustrating with the entire fantasy community as we had to wait until Week 13 for a breakout game. But enough with the fluff.
Williams is the complete package. He has the ideal size, speed, and power to be a three-down workhorse worth 20+ touches a game. His stats are the absolute model of efficiency and pop in almost every category except usage. He’s been the slamdunk number one tackle breaker in the NFL let alone in his draft class. It’s a shame that Melvin Gordon’s season has been overshadowed by the RB controversy because he’s played well, but Williams is simply younger and better.
The Bad
Melvin Gordon has been the best he’s been since leaving the Chargers and Vic Fangio would prefer having multiple backs like the other 90% of the NFL. Melvin Gordon wants to come back but could be gone next season and I’m still unsure of how the entire team will look after shipping off several pieces that made them contender-ready barring a QB upgrade. That QB upgrade was expected to come either by trade or free agency and you have to wonder if they’re still as sexy after all the trades or how competitive they’ll be for next season. You don’t need to be on a good team to be a quality fantasy asset but good offenses generate consistent high-quality opportunities, especially in the red zone.
The Ugly Truth
Williams is the best pure rusher in the draft class and deserves 20+ touches every game. The only question or knock on his value is usage. Williams has never had a full workload since his college days and Vic Fangio and OC Pat Shurmur are old-school coaches who love having a two-headed monster rushing attack. This certainly means that Williams will be good no matter what but his upside could be capped unless he’s truly set free.
1 – Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
Regular Season Stats
Games Started: 13 | Games Played: 13 | PFF Grade: 68.5
Fantasy Scoring: Standard: 181 (RB4) | PPR: 241 (RB3)
Measurements: HT: 6’1″ | WT: 232 | 40: 4.45 | Shuttle: 3.7 | Vert: 32.2
Rushing: 237/873/6 | YPG: 67.2 | YPC: 3.68 | YAC: 444 | YBC: 429 | BrkTkl: 18 | RZ%: 74.2
Snap Percentage: 84.6%
Receiving: 60/397/3 | RPG: 4.6 | YPG: 30.5 | YPC: 6.62 | YAC: 420
Target Percentage: 14.8%
The Good
Najee Harris was the only running back taken in the first round and finds himself in a prime destination for any running back. The Steelers have been missing a healthy bell-cow since the days of Le’Veon Bell and have used Harris the exact same way. Harris has been a PPR machine with a safe floor regardless of his underwhelming rushing averages and will be a volume machine like his teammate Diontae Johnson.
Going from one ideal situation in Alabama to the next isn’t a knock on his skill. The rookie has more size than Javonte Williams and is one of the best natural receivers in his class. Harris is comfortable running real routes out wide and catching away from his body. He’s more than capable of actually being the heir to Le’Veon bell despite their differences. Harris is a much stronger downhill runner but lacks Bell’s natural patience and vision while both have soft and reliable hands. All of this should make managers salivate when you consider this production is coming with a half-retired QB and a poor offensive line. Which is a perfect segway into my next point.
The Bad
The Steelers have huge questions on offense starting at quarterback. Ben Roethlisberger is set to retire in the offseason as expected and the future on their roster is bleak. Mason Rudolph and Dwayne Haskins aren’t good enough to beat out the Ghost of Roethlisberger. Let that sink in. The next, and arguably more pressing issue, is Pittsburgh’s dismal offensive line that’s been the crux of the offense’s issues. Harris has been one of the least efficient rushers all season due to the Steelers constantly living behind the chains because of defensive pressure. Pittsburgh’s offense will step back even further unless major moves are made this offseason.
Harris is also an older rookie with plenty of miles already so it’s worth noting that he could be as sturdy as Ezekiel Elliott and Derrick Henry or fall apart like Todd Gurley. Age and usage affect the already short shelf lives of running backs and we need to be cautious of injuries towards the tail end of his rookie contract. It’s fortunate that Harris has the best size in the class and has had no injury concerns up until this point.
The Ugly Truth
Najee Harris is the safest player in this draft class and is one of the few offensive focal points outside of the quarterback position. You shouldn’t underrate his athleticism or ability because he was a product of a good system and treat him as a solid building block for your dynasty roster. The Steelers are a trustworthy and winning organization and no other back is in a better position for guaranteed production. Harris is one of the largest backs in the class with the athleticism and skill to be effective in every phase of the game including pass protection. The draft capital should be the sealing factor to have Harris as a Top-5 fantasy back overall let alone the top rookie.
Think I’m too high on Najee? Let me know at @SportsJag!
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