Reinventing Devy As We Know It
We go off-script today as @DynastyPatrolHQ offers up an alternative to traditional Devy Dynasty Football formats.
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sony michel
The Rapid Rise and Fall of Cam Akers: A Modern Tragedy
Think back to yourself two off-seasons ago: Akers is coming off a six-game stretch (including two playoff games) where he averaged 110 total yards on 22 carries (not touches, carries) per game, as well as scoring five TDs. My favorite of these games came against New England when he gashed the 2020 Patriots for 171 yards on 5.9 yards per carry. Watching him glide effortlessly on well-blocked inside and outside zone runs, making defenders miss at the second level and falling forward sometimes seven or eight yards with DBs trying to bring him down. Then his playoff run, where he put up what would’ve been 21.1 PPR points per game against the Seahawks and Packers- nearly willing the Goff-era Rams to another Conference Championship.
Think back to yourself two offseasons ago: Akers is coming off a six-game stretch (including two playoff games) where he averaged 110 total yards on 22 carries (not touches, carries) per game, as well as scoring 5 TDs. My favorite of these games came against New England when he gashed the 2020 Patriots for 171 yards on 5.9 yards per carry. Watching him glide effortlessly on well-blocked inside and outside zone runs, making defenders miss at the second level and falling forward sometimes seven or eight yards with DBs trying to bring him down. Then his playoff run, where he put up what would’ve been 21.1 PPR points per game against the Seahawks and Packers- nearly willing the Goff-era Rams to another Conference Championship.
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DFS Week 13 Recap
We’re now through Week 13 and the craziness has not stopped. The Detroit Lions were able to end their winless season as they upset the Minnesota Vikings with a last-second touchdown. The top team in the AFC went down as the Baltimore Ravens lost a close one against the Pittsburgh Steelers. With that being said, let’s see how my weekly DFS picks played out!
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Kickoff Countdown Day 9: 9 Hardest Players to Project
Welcome to the fourth entry in our Kickoff Countdown series, counting down the days until we can once again sit and watch some real football! As you already know, each article has a numeric theme, which also counts down as each day is ticked off the calendar. In this piece, I’ll be discussing the nine (see the theme?) players that I had the toughest time projecting and what I ultimately expect out of them this season. Not only is it a lot of fun to look at some realistic outcomes for these players, but looking at these projections can also help you to confidently select one player over another when you are on the clock, even if those two players appear almost indistinguishable at first glance. So, without further ado, I give you my nine hardest players to project for the 2021 season.
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Rapid Reaction: Sony Michel to the L.A. Rams
Sony coming to Los Angeles helps give him a path towards more work than he would have found in New England. He wasn’t even in my top 40 for running backs before this but now he becomes a late-round pick you must make. Why? Darrell Henderson suffered a hand injury in his last pre-season game and while most reports say he will be good to go, Sean McVay will be more likely to give him a breather during the season. The Rams are all in on this season. Even with the arrival of Xavier Jones onto the scene in LA, Sony is a proven commodity and to me, he becomes the RB2 in that room and should take some series from him.
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Redraft 2021: Backfields to Avoid
Finding a true bell-cow running back in the NFL is hard to come by these days. Most teams elect to utilize multiple backs for various situations. Whether it is goal-line work, third down, or simply just to keep the defense guessing, more running backs are getting involved on offense at a more frequent rate. While plenty of value and fantasy points can come from running backs on the same team, there are a few backfields that I am avoiding at all costs.
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Startup Strategies: Drafting to Reload, Not Rebuild: Part 2 – Depth Evaluation
Hurray for the start of Training Camps!! We can finally begin overhyping Twitter highlights while we listen to the sweet voice of Liev Schreiber give hope to Cowboys fans via Hard Knocks. So as we squeeze in a few more startups before the regular season starts, let’s dive into Part II of our Startup Strategies series. Make sure to check out Part I where I focus on drafting a strong core pick-by-pick through the first nine rounds of a real draft I participated in, and how you can take my strategy and deep dive to draft a roster competitive enough to win now without having to rebuild later. In Part II we’ll take a broader look at the full roster post-draft to evaluate depth by position and consider immediate and future roster moves needed to bring home The Ship.
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2021 Dynasty Profile: Damien Harris
Harris found more success in his sophomore season. In ten games, he carried the ball 137 times for 691 yards and 2 TDs. However, with just 7 targets in that span, he failed to make a real impact in the receiving game. During that stretch of ten games–Weeks 4 through 14–Harris was the RB29. His 9.1 PPR points per game placed him between Devin Singletary and Jamaal Williams for the season.
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Early Offseason Dynasty Stashes
I just wanted to give you all a quick look at some of my favorite early offseason dynasty stashes. If your league allows transactions at this time of year, I recommend picking up some of these players. Every player I’m listing here is likely on your dynasty waiver wire, or they at least could be there. On the other hand, if your league doesn’t allow add/drops right now, talk to your leaguemates. The best dynasty leagues have year-round activity. Having action all year keeps everyone engaged 100% of the time. With that said, let’s jump into the stash candidates.
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Week 6 Early Game Storylines
As usual, I’m trying a different type of article this week. I will go through each of the early slate games and discuss one dynasty-relevant storyline per team that I’m excited to see. If I get a chance, I might look at the rest of the games in another article, but I wanted to start with only the first set. This piece will give you something specific to look for in each contest, which I hope helps you enjoy the games even more. I’ve listed the home team first for each game. I won’t waste any more time, so let’s jump straight in!
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Damien Harris: 2020 Dynasty Profile
The Patriots selected Harris with the 87th overall pick in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft. They had a relatively crowded backfield at the time, consisting of 2019 first-round pick Sony Michel, pass-catcher James White, and veteran Rex Burkhead. Given Michel’s relatively inefficient performances as a rookie, some people thought that Harris could challenge for the starting role. Even if Harris wouldn’t be the immediate starter, I believed he could compete with Michel for early-down work, alongside White as the third-down back.
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Dynasty Risers and Fallers Week 5
In this weekly piece, I will bring you some risers and fallers from a dynasty lens. Whether it’s injuries, performance, or value, I want to discuss how players have moved around. Based on the week’s events, I’ll give some advice on how to act on the market’s movement, whether it’s buying, selling, or holding.
I won’t limit myself to talking about any specific players or teams because I want to have the freedom to discuss whatever is most relevant. Also, of course, there are more risers and fallers than those I’m listing. However, it’s impossible to cover every single one of them, as dynasty values change weekly for many players. With that said, let’s jump into the risers first, followed by the fallers.
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Dead to Me: Rob Gronkowski
I’m taking my dead to me series into the dynasty realm. At least, dynasty leagues will be the primary focus for me in this series in the future. Writing about dynasty makes more sense for a series on burying a player, as we look at the player’s value over time. Now, it’s time to put the final burial on Rob Gronkowski. I mentioned Gronkowski in a short blurb in a risers and fallers article this week, but he deserves his own article. For someone who was once a star, he should get a proper send-off.
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Looking Ahead to Week 4
In this weekly article, I’m going to look ahead to the following week. I’ll point out a few players below 50% owned on ESPN who have strong matchups next week that you can pick up ahead of time to beat the waiver run. I’ll also try and get ahead of breakouts that could happen in the current week, as predicting breakouts is the best way to save your FAAB budget.
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Dynasty Risers and Fallers Week 3
In this weekly piece, I will bring you some risers and fallers from a dynasty lens. Whether it’s injuries, performance, or value, I want to discuss how players have moved around. Based on the week’s events, I’ll give some advice on how to act on the market’s movement, whether it’s buying, selling, or holding.
I won’t limit myself to talking about any specific players or teams because I want to have the freedom to discuss whatever is most relevant. Also, of course, there are more risers and fallers than those I’m listing. However, it’s impossible to cover every single one of them, as dynasty values change weekly for many players. With that said, let’s jump into the risers first, followed by the fallers.
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Looking Ahead to Week 3
In this weekly article, I’m going to look ahead to the following week. I’ll point out a few players below 50% owned on ESPN who have strong matchups next week that you can pick up ahead of time to beat the waiver run. I’ll also try and get ahead of breakouts that could happen in the current week, as predicting breakouts is the best way to save your FAAB budget.
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Sleeper Series: Jerick McKinnon
After writing my redraft team breakdown series, I decided to start a new series as we approach the 2020 fantasy season. Every week, or probably more often than that, I’m going to bring you one fantasy sleeper representing a massive value in 2020 redraft leagues. All the links to previous articles are at the bottom of the article. In the first article, I detailed my methodology behind this series, so go back and read that piece if you haven’t yet!
For the next entry, I want to look at Jerick McKinnon. He’s currently left for dead in redraft leagues, but I think he’s worth highlighting as a sleeper. Finding late gems at running back can win you fantasy leagues, and McKinnon might be the 2020 version of a late-round steal.
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Lamar Miller Redraft Reaction
I’ve done a bunch of reaction articles throughout the offseason, but they were all from a dynasty lens. At this point in the offseason, the season is in sight, so any moves have a more direct effect on 2020 redraft leagues. We know far more about each team’s depth chart, so it’s far easier to slot any new additions into a role. I broke down the Patriots for redraft in June, but so much has changed since then. The Patriots signed Cam Newton to replace Jarrett Stidham at quarterback. Also, we received news that Sony Michel had offseason foot surgery, leaving him in a race to be ready for the start of the season. That’s where Lamar Miller comes into play. As he’s an older veteran running back, Miller doesn’t carry much dynasty value, but he makes a massive impact on the Patriots’ backfield in 2020. I’ll begin with Miller, and then move into how I’ve moved each other Patriots’ running back based on his signing. Let’s jump into it!
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Redraft Impact of PPR Scoring
The original idea of half and full PPR scoring was to even out the production between running backs and wide receivers. In the past, say 15-20 years ago, running backs significantly outscored wide receivers. But, giving points per reception leveled the playing field. I’ll break down whether that’s still true, but that was the primary purpose behind PPR scoring systems. Also, basing scoring on receptions creates more predictability in projecting fantasy points. As always, fantasy leagues are more fun when they reward skill over luck. Specifically, adding PPR scoring reduces the scoring impact of touchdowns, which are highly unpredictable, in favor of receptions, which are highly predictable.
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Dead to Me: Emmanuel Sanders
The shovel is back! My favorite article series returns once again. If you don’t already know, I figuratively bury fantasy players and their redraft stock. You can find all my previous work in this series at the bottom of the page. Unfortunately, the grim reaper has come for Emmanuel Sanders. He’s had a great career, but his time is up. Also, to jump out in front of the potential backlash, I want to make sure you don’t hear what I’m not saying in this article. Sanders was an exceptional real-life and fantasy wide receiver for many years. He had a stellar NFL career and deserves nothing but praise for his perseverance.
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