Methodology
In this weekly article, I’m going to look ahead to the following week. I’ll point out a few players below 50% owned on ESPN who have strong matchups next week that you can pick up ahead of time to beat the waiver run. I’ll also try and get ahead of breakouts that could happen in the current week, as predicting breakouts is the best way to save your FAAB budget.
With added IR spots in most leagues, you can also shift injured players there, opening up a roster spot for these options. Since most of these additions will occur on the weekend, I’ll exclude any players from the Thursday night game, as you won’t be able to add them to your rosters. This season more than any other, it’s essential to remain active and stay ahead of your league mates. I hope you find value in this column and that it helps you succeed on a week-to-week basis.
I won’t limit myself to any specific number of players or force myself to choose specific positions, outside of a few exceptions. Each week, I’ll provide one look ahead streamer at quarterback and D/ST, as those positions are easy to predict every week. Quarterback streaming mostly comes from the opposing defense and D/ST from the opposing offense, and we know those schedules ahead of time.
Must Adds
Sony Michel (RB – NE), 48.1% owned
There’s nothing really to say about Michel. He’s a starting running back in the NFL, and he shouldn’t be on waivers. Darrell Henderson, Jordan Howard, and Matt Breida all have higher ownership percentages than Michel, which they shouldn’t. It’s not a big deal, but I just wanted to mention Michel.
Joshua Kelley (RB – LAC), 24.6% owned
I have no idea how Kelley’s ownership percentage remains so low. He had 12 carries for 60 yards and a touchdown in Week 1, and he claimed the secondary running back role behind Austin Ekeler for the Chargers. Kelley will retain this role ahead of Justin Jackson for the remainder of the season. I think Kelley should be on a roster in all leagues.
Mike Williams (WR – LAC), 49.3% owned
Like Kelley, Williams needs to be on a roster in every single redraft league. He only caught four passes for 69 yards in Week 1, but he received nine targets. The Chargers will play a shootout versus the Chiefs in Week 2, and Williams could go off. Don’t wait on Williams. Go pick him up now.
Parris Campbell (WR – IND), 45.8% owned
Once again, I don’t understand how Campbell’s ownership percentage isn’t around 80-90%. Campbell converted nine targets into six receptions for 71 yards in Week 1, and he claimed an every-down role as Philip Rivers’ slot receiver. The Colts face the Vikings’ soft pass defense in Week 2, giving Campbell another opportunity to succeed. I believe that Campbell has the chance to become the Colts’ WR1, ahead of T.Y. Hilton and Michael Pittman Jr. Campbell shouldn’t be on any waiver wires.
Chris Herndon (TE – NYJ), 37.7% owned
Herndon has the chance to become the Jets’ top target after they placed Denzel Mims and Le’ Veon Bell on injured reserve and also may have lost Jamison Crowder to a hamstring injury. Even against the Bills’ tough defense, Herndon managed six receptions for 37 yards on seven targets. While he faces another top matchup against the 49ers in Week 2, Sam Darnold should focus on Herndon. Grab him now before he entirely breaks out.
Jonnu Smith (TE – TEN), 29.3% owned
Like Herndon, Smith also plays for a team struggling with injuries. Top receiver A.J. Brown could miss multiple weeks with a bone bruise while WR2 Corey Davis has a hamstring injury. Smith had four receptions for 36 yards and a touchdown in Week 1, and he faces the horrific Jaguars’ defense in Week 2. If you need a tight end or aren’t entirely confident in your starter, Smith is a perfect add before he goes wild this week.
Deeper Options
Jerick McKinnon (RB – SF), 18.2% owned
McKinnon had a small role in Week 1. He took three carries for 24 yards and had three receptions for 20 yards and a touchdown. I’m not wholly confident that McKinnon will maintain his role in the future, as Tevin Coleman sat out of most of the game due to the air quality. However, McKinnon is a decent speculative add in deeper leagues.
Myles Gaskin (RB – MIA), 8.9% owned
Gaskin came from nowhere in Week 1 to lead the Dolphins in carries and yards. He played ahead of Jordan Howard and Matt Breida, and he converted his nine carries into 40 yards. Unfortunately, I expect the Dolphins to continue to utilize all three running backs, making this a nightmare committee. On the off-chance that Gaskin consolidates this role, he’s not the worst add for RB-desperate fantasy owners.
Jalen Reagor (WR – PHI), 26.8% owned
I understand why Reagor’s ownership percentage isn’t higher. He’s a rookie receiver, and he only caught one pass in Week 1 for 55 yards. However, Reagor led the Eagles’ wide receivers in snaps with 59%, just ahead of DeSean Jackson at 54%. Considering that Reagor had a shoulder injury and wasn’t at 100% in his first NFL game, I liked his role. He’s not a lock to hit or produce anytime soon, but he’s a comfortable hold in all but the shallowest leagues.
Anthony Miller (WR – CHI), 40.4% owned
I don’t understand why Miller is so low-owned, considering that he had four catches for 76 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. Allen Robinson is the Bears’ WR1, but Miller is the second option in the passing game, ahead of scatback Tarik Cohen and tight end Jimmy Graham. I’m not sure that Mitch Trubisky can support multiple passing-game options, but Miller has a great Week 2 matchup against the Giants. I’d like to hold him through this week in case he breaks out.
Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF), 22.0% owned
Aiyuk is entirely speculative, as he’s never played an NFL game. The 49ers have so many wide receiver injuries, and they used a first-round pick on Aiyuk during the 2020 NFL Draft. I have no idea how the 49ers will use Aiyuk during their Week 2 game against the Jets. But, if you add Aiyuk now, you’ll be ahead of the waiver run if he has a strong first game.
Russell Gage (WR – ATL), 18.0% owned
Gage had a solid Week 1, with nine receptions for 114 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets. All three of the Falcons’ wide receivers had solid games, as both Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley also had nine receptions and at least 130 yards. While tight end Hayden Hurst struggled with only three receptions for 38 yards, I found myself impressed with Gage’s performance. He’s not a must-add because he’s behind two stud receivers, but I would like to have him as a WR4 or WR5 option in deeper leagues.
Scotty Miller (WR – TB), 15.0% owned
Buccaneers’ star wide receiver Chris Godwin will almost certainly miss their Week 2 game against the Panthers with a concussion. Miller will replace Godwin in the starting lineup across from Mike Evans. Tom Brady already displayed chemistry with Miller in Week 1, where Miller caught five of six targets for 73 yards. The Panthers’ secondary is horrible, so Miller has every chance to break out in this game.
Corey Davis (WR – TEN), 13.9% owned
As I mentioned above with Jonnu Smith, the Titans will likely play Week 2 without top receiver A.J. Brown. While Davis also has an injury, he could succeed against the Jaguars’ porous defense. If Davis repeats his strong Week 1 performance, he’ll be a popular waiver-wire add. Grab him ahead of that possibility.
Logan Thomas (TE – WAS), 6.5% owned
Most fantasy owners have probably never even heard of Thomas, but he came out of nowhere in Week 1. Thomas had four receptions for 37 yards and a touchdown on eight targets, playing as Washington’s clear top tight end. I’m not willing to start Thomas in Week 2, even though he plays the Cardinals. However, he’s a decent bench stash if you play in a very deep league or 2 TE format.
QB of the Week: Gardner Minshew (JAX), 18.8% owned
Minshew has a poor Week 2 matchup at the Titans. I cannot recommend playing Minshew in Week 2, even though he had a great game in Week 1 against the Colts. He completed 19/20 passes for 173 yards and three touchdowns while adding five carries for 19 yards in that contest.
In Week 3, Minshew faces the Dolphins at home. While the Dolphins improved their defense throughout the offseason, they didn’t play particularly well in Week 1 against the Patriots. Cam Newton only threw for 175 yards, although he tore the Dolphins apart on the ground with 15 carries for 75 yards and two touchdowns.
Minshew isn’t the same type of runner as Newton, but he provides a similar model for success. I expect to rank Minshew as a borderline QB1 in this game, so he’s a tremendous week-ahead pickup if you need a quarterback for Week 3.
D/ST of the Week: Buccaneers, 42.5% owned
There aren’t any must-add D/ST units for Week 3, but the Buccaneers are a solid choice. They struggled against the Saints’ high-powered offense in Week 1, but they did manage to limit the Saints on the ground. I believe that the Buccaneers will demonstrate that they’re an excellent real-life defense in Week 2 against the Panthers.
Therefore, I’m happy to start the Buccaneers in Week 3 versus the Broncos and Drew Lock. The Broncos will likely be without Phillip Lindsay in this matchup, forcing them to throw the ball. Courtland Sutton is struggling with injuries as well. The Buccaneers are a safe play.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
