Sleeper Series: Jerick McKinnon

Methodology and Intro

After writing my redraft team breakdown series, I decided to start a new series as we approach the 2020 fantasy season. Every week, or probably more often than that, I’m going to bring you one fantasy sleeper representing a massive value in 2020 redraft leagues. All the links to previous articles are at the bottom of the article. In the first article, I detailed my methodology behind this series, so go back and read that piece if you haven’t yet!

For the next entry, I want to look at Jerick McKinnon. He’s currently left for dead in redraft leagues, but I think he’s worth highlighting as a sleeper. Finding late gems at running back can win you fantasy leagues, and McKinnon might be the 2020 version of a late-round steal.

Past Production

Here are McKinnon’s full NFL stats.

The Vikings drafted McKinnon in the third round of the 2014 NFL Draft as a potential long-term replacement for longtime star running back Adrian Peterson. However, the NFL suspended Peterson on child abuse charges after only one game in 2014, forcing McKinnon into early action. McKinnon formed a committee with Matt Asiata, although Asiata far outscored him in fantasy points. Even so, McKinnon showed well as a rookie and flashed potential.

In 2015, Peterson returned to his workhorse role, limiting McKinnon to spot duty. McKinnon played ahead of Asiata as Peterson’s backup, but McKinnon saw little to no fantasy relevance. He was just an afterthought in 2015, and he wasn’t on the fantasy radar.

Once again, McKinnon won the Vikings’ backup running back job over Asiata in 2016. Peterson then suffered a knee injury that limited him to only three games, allowing McKinnon another chance to take the starting job. While McKinnon took the majority of committee work, he still split more carries with Asiata than fantasy owners would have liked. Asiata had 121 carries to 159 for McKinnon and scored six touchdowns compared to McKinnon’s two. McKinnon did manage an RB27 finish, although his 9.9 fantasy PPG wasn’t particularly impressive.

After 2016, the Vikings decided not to pick up the option on Peterson’s contract, allowing him to leave in free agency. They signed Latavius Murray in free agency and drafted Dalvin Cook in the second round to replace Peterson, further muddying McKinnon’s value. From the start of the season, Cook relegated Murray and McKinnon to complete irrelevance, as Cook became a workhorse. In the four games Cook played, he averaged 18.5 carries/game.

However, Cook suffered a season-ending ACL tear in Week 4, forcing the Vikings to turn to Murray and McKinnon. Once again, McKinnon failed to consolidate the starting job when given a chance, and he formed an equal committee with Murray. Murray took more carries, but McKinnon showed incredible upside as a receiver. McKinnon had 51 receptions on 68 targets for 421 yards and two touchdowns, and he finally broke into RB2 range in PPR formats.

With Cook returning for 2018, the Vikings felt no need to retain McKinnon. Therefore, McKinnon signed with the 49ers to a massive free-agent contract, worth $30 million over four years. Based on that sizable contract, McKinnon immediately projected as the 49ers’ workhorse back, far ahead of secondary option Matt Breida. It might be hard to believe at this point, but McKinnon had a second-round ADP during the 2018 draft season. Fantasy owners felt enamored with McKinnon’s receiving upside and his potential role in the Kyle Shanahan offense.

Unfortunately, McKinnon tore his ACL on the eve of the 2018 season. We never got to see if he would’ve succeeded as the 49ers’ workhorse back, and the 49ers turned to an uninspiring committee of Breida and free-agent signing Alfred Morris. McKinnon missed the entire 2018 season, but he expected to come back strong for 2019.

Before 2019, the 49ers signed Tevin Coleman to compete with McKinnon and Breida for the starting job. McKinnon eventually rehabbed his knee in time for training camp, but he then suffered multiple setbacks. The 49ers had to place McKinnon on injured reserve for the second straight season. Once again, McKinnon managed to play zero games for the team that gave him a big free agency deal.

The Prevailing Narrative

I think the prevailing narrative surrounding McKinnon is pretty straightforward. He hasn’t played in a game since 2017, so he’s out of sight, out of mind. Also, McKinnon failed to take over as a workhorse back when he had the chance in 2014, 2015, and 2017. Therefore, he lacks intrigue at this point in his career. I can’t blame the average fantasy owner for having no interest in a player with McKinnon’s history of production.

2020 Outlook

In 2020, the 49ers have turned to late breakout Raheem Mostert as their lead back, with Coleman in a backup role. In my 49ers’ 2020 redraft breakdown, I stated that while I think Mostert is the clear favorite for carries, McKinnon has an excellent shot at overtaking Coleman for the second option. The 49ers restructured McKinnon’s contract before the 2020 season when they could have cut him, showing their commitment to using McKinnon in their offense.

During training camp, McKinnon is a full participant, and he looks solid in drills. The 49ers have also lost receiving threats Deebo Samuel and Jalen Hurd, leaving a target vacuum in their offense. McKinnon excels in the receiving game, whereas Mostert offers nothing. Mostert had only 14 receptions throughout 2019, and I don’t expect him to improve in that area in 2020.

Therefore, I believe McKinnon will have a role in 2020. He’s currently my RB61, but I think he has RB3 upside if he beats out Coleman. This backfield is vital to watch during training camp, as any player who gets work in Shanahan’s offense will provide fantasy value. If McKinnon continues his early camp success, I’ll move him farther up my draft board. For now, though, he’s a nice last-round sleeper.

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.

Previous Articles: Intro + Hayden Hurst, Sony Michel, Sterling Shepard, Jamison Crowder, Allen Lazard, Brandon Aiyuk