Welcome to the fourth entry in our Kickoff Countdown series, counting down the days until we can once again sit and watch some real football! As you already know, each article has a numeric theme, which also counts down as each day is ticked off the calendar. In this piece, I’ll be discussing the nine (see the theme?) players that I had the toughest time projecting and what I ultimately expect out of them this season. Not only is it a lot of fun to look at some realistic outcomes for these players, but looking at these projections can also help you to confidently select one player over another when you are on the clock, even if those two players appear almost indistinguishable at first glance. So, without further ado, I give you my nine hardest players to project for the 2021 season.
1. Michael Carter, RB New York Jets
Carter is tough to project for a few reasons: he is a rookie RB that we haven’t seen play in the NFL before, he has underrated backfield competition, and the Jets have a new coaching staff. The new coaching staff makes it very hard to project the typically very easy things like pass-to-run ratio and pass-to-run touchdown ratio. These are the building blocks of every team’s projections that I do. Because of this, I gave the Jets pretty much the league average in both so that we can at least get a median projection of what we need to expect. Next, it is very hard to divide this backfield’s touches up because Tevin Coleman and Michael Carter both were not here last year. If we had been able to see how the previous staff used these three backs at least we’d have some idea of what to expect in the future. For now, I have given Carter a 45% rush share because I do believe he is the most talented back but he may get off to a slow start before winning the job. His full stat line comes out to 186 attempts, 783 yards, and five touchdowns, along with 36 receptions, 302 receiving yards, and one touchdown. These numbers would result in about 10.6 PPR points per game, and make him the RB34 in my projection’s rankings.
2. Trey Lance, QB San Francisco 49ers
Trey Lance was taken third overall in the NFL draft, so the 49ers obviously like him. The question now is how much patience will they be able to have when throwing Lance into the starting lineup. He should be the higher upside NFL QB over Jimmy Garappolo, however, there is also great value in safety in the NFL. If Jimmy G can be a very effective game manager and not lose the team games it is going to be hard for Lance to take the starting job. We could even see Jimmy G as the starter for all 17 games, so projecting Lance this season is very difficult. I think he will play nine games so here is Lance’s nine-game stat line. 175/282, 2,027 yards, 14 touchdowns through the air, with 45 carries for 270 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. These stats would give Trey Lance 20.4 PPR fantasy points per game and make him the QB15 in my projections.
3. David Montgomery, RB Chicago Bears
You may be surprised at Montgomery being on this list because he is entering his third season with the same OC and we should have a lot of good past data to use right? Nope, almost nothing from the last couple of years is usable. We have seen this offense piloted by Mitchell Trubisky who is now gone. I suppose Andy Dalton would be similar to Trubisky but the real wild card in the situation is rookie QB, Justin Fields. Montgomery’s outlook is wildly different depending on which quarterback is under center for this team. Dalton is a stationary pocket passer who will often utilize his running back as an outlet if he gets into trouble, which is good for Montgomery.
Justin Fields is a rushing QB who will take off with his legs if he can’t get a good pass off. Fields takes away carries, targets, and touchdowns from Montgomery. However, Fields also should make the offense more potent, run more plays and score more TDs. Which has the opportunity to balance out the negatives and maybe even help Montgomery. Either way, it is a very tough situation to look at. Here is what I expect from it. For Montgomery, I am projecting 295 carries, 1267 yards, and 10 touchdowns. This will go along with 32 receptions, 223 yards, and two touchdowns. This gives David Montgomery a PPR points per game average of 14.9 per game and would make him RB22 in my projections.
4. Terrace Marshall, WR Carolina Panthers
Terrace Marshall is the hottest rookie WR on Twitter right now, and projecting him is very hard. Marshall’s college profile projects him as an alpha WR1 in the NFL someday, but right now he is just a rookie. He is also just a rookie that is playing with two very good, established, NFL wide receivers. This makes me think Marshall will have a hard time garnering many targets in that offense. However, Marshall has been killing the preseason and is looking every bit the part of the alpha WR he is supposed to become. This makes the projections difficult because I have no idea how much the coaching staff likes him or plans on using him. His upside is as high as outproducing both D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson while his floor is as low as being the fourth passing target on a medium/low volume offense. With all of this in mind, I have him projected for 70 receptions, 787 yards, and six touchdowns. This results in Terrace scoring 10.8 PPR points per game, and place him at WR53 for 2021.
5. Darrell Henderson, RB Los Angeles Rams
Darrell Henderson is a tough case because of the Rams bringing in a new backfield mate, Sony Michel. Before it was obvious Henderson is the starter and he would be getting most of the targets. Sony Michel is a very good all-purpose back who can win between the tackles, on the goal line, and in the receiving game. Now Sony could just be an involved backup that’s mainly insurance for Henderson, or it could be a 50/50 split. Right now I have Henderson projected to take 53% of the team’s carries and 60% of the RB targets. This results in a stat line of 214 carries, 909 yards, and 9 touchdowns; with 44 receptions, 415 yards, and two touchdowns through the air. Henderson would be scoring 14.2 ppg with these stats, which would be RB24 in my rankings.
6. Tua Tagovailoa, QB Miami Dolphins
Tua has such a wide range of outcomes (like most players) but we lack good information to use for projecting him. He played a few games last year but he faced so much adversity that can’t be used as the real Tua. He was still recovering from his hip injury, so he was running less. He was given the job and then benched and then put back in so he couldn’t get any consistency. And he had injured weapons when he was starting. In 2021 I believe we will see a much better, more efficient Tua that also runs more. He’s 2 years removed from his nasty hip injury, and he has new toys in Will Fuller and rookie WR, Jaylen Waddle. I think this will all combine to give Tua a stat line of 411/632, 4425 yards, and eight TDs, with 387 yards and three TDs added on the ground. Resulting in a ppg average of 18.8, making him QB18 in my rankings.
7. Ja’Marr Chase, WR Cincinnati Bengals
Ja’Marr Chase is tough to project for a few reasons. Numbers one being the most obvious, he is a rookie. Ja’Marr Chase was Joe Burrow’s favorite target in college but that was two years ago now. Tee Higgins got to play NFL games with Burrow so there could be more trust there. Ja’Marr Chase also didn’t play football in 2020, so he may need a longer acclimation time. Chase could be the number or alpha in this fast-paced and productive Bengals offense. Or Chase could be the third target on a bad team that failed because of the offensive line. Let’s look at what I think Chase will be able to do. My process resulted in Chase having 78 receptions, 984 yards, and eight TDs. These numbers result in a 13.1 PPR ppg average, and a WR33 ranking for 2021.
8. Antonio Gibson, RB Washington Football Team
Antonio Gibson burst onto the scene last year and became seen as a top 15 RB heading into the 2021 season. However, I don’t think it will be that easy for Gibson to just take over the workhorse role. J.D. McKissic had over 100 targets last season. And while the fantasy community wants Gibson to get all of these targets for the fantasy upside, there is not a real football reason to do so. McKissic will be the thorn in the side of all fantasy owners, heavily capping Gibson’s upside this season. Although, there is a possibility that Gibson gets the receiving work and sees a CMC type of volume. I think this is less likely but it still needs to be considered. I have Antonio Gibson projected for 247 carries, 1171 yards, and 13 touchdowns, with 47 catches for 446 yards and two touchdowns through the air. This gives him an average of 17.4 PPR PPG and makes him the RB15 in my projections.
9. New Orleans Saints Offense
I know this is a team and not a single player but this whole situation is just a mess. At least we finally got clarity on the starting QB for the team, but there are still a lot of unknowns. We do not know how the offense will be run under Jameis Winston. We have usually seen a pretty pass-happy offense from the Saints, but these passes were typically very short or intermediate routes. Jameis is more of a risk it all deep-ball thrower, so it will be interesting to see how Sean Payton uses him. Missing Michael Thomas also throws a weird wrench into the team dynamic because they have no real wide receivers now. This should cause them to want to run more, but they chose Winston who is more fit for a passing game. With all of these unknowns here are my projections for the Saints offense as a whole.
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much! Make sure to be on the lookout for the next part of the series, One Dynasty Sleeper From All Right Divisions.
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