Intro/Methodology
In this weekly piece, I will bring you some risers and fallers from a dynasty lens. Whether it’s injuries, performance, or value, I want to discuss how players have moved around. Based on the week’s events, I’ll give some advice on how to act on the market’s movement, whether it’s buying, selling, or holding.
I won’t limit myself to talking about any specific players or teams because I want to have the freedom to discuss whatever is most relevant. Also, of course, there are more risers and fallers than those I’m listing. However, it’s impossible to cover every single one of them, as dynasty values change weekly for many players. With that said, let’s jump into the risers first, followed by the fallers.
Risers
Calvin Ridley
Ridley is the real deal. He caught nine of 12 targets for 130 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1. Then, Ridley excelled once again in Week 2, catching seven of 10 targets for 109 yards and two touchdowns. At this point, Ridley is the dynasty WR1 in Atlanta, far ahead of Julio Jones.
So far, Ridley is the number one overall receiver in fantasy football. While I haven’t moved him up in the top two rounds of startups, Ridley carries similar value to players like Amari Cooper and Kenny Golladay. He’s younger than both of those players, and he has shown an equal or greater ceiling. It’s way too late to buy Ridley, but you shouldn’t sell him. Hang onto Ridley and enjoy the benefits.
Brandin Cooks
Cooks struggled through a quad injury in Week 1, where he only played 53% of the offensive snaps. He seemed limited during that contest, and he only caught two of five targets for 20 yards. After that game, where teammate Will Fuller played well, I wasn’t sure that Cooks would claim a significant role in the offense.
Luckily, Cooks silenced his doubters in Week 2 with a solid performance. He caught five of his eight targets for 95 yards. Most impressively, Cooks played on 90% of the Texans’ snaps, far more than any other Texans’ wide receiver. Fuller suffered a hamstring injury during the game, which opened the door for Cooks. However, I believed that Cooks was the top receiver here before the season, and I think that’s the case moving forward.
Darren Waller
Waller torched the Saints in Week 2. He had a whopping 16 targets, catching 12 for 103 yards and a touchdown. Even though the Raiders added rookies Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards to the offense, they haven’t moved away from Waller whatsoever. Waller played on 89 and 92% of the Raiders’ snaps in their two games. He’s an every-down player, and he’s a dynasty TE1.
Josh Allen
Allen demolished the Jets in Week 1, throwing for 312 yards and two touchdowns on an excellent week. He also added 14 carries for 57 yards and a score on the ground. However, I wasn’t sure that the game represented Allen’s actual value. The Jets are one of the weakest teams in the NFL, so I still had some doubts about Allen, especially since I didn’t believe Allen was a good quarterback.
Allen silenced me in Week 2. Even though he played the lowly Dolphins, he threw for 417 yards and four touchdowns. He also completed 68.57% of his passes, his second straight week with a completion percentage of around 70%. Allen proved that he’s a real NFL passer, not just a fantasy star with his legs. Yes, he played another weak defense, but they’re an NFL team.
At this point, I’ve relented on Allen, and I have him as my QB8 in superflex dynasty formats, behind only Mahomes, Jackson, Prescott, Murray, Watson, Wilson, and Burrow. I’m fine buying in at that price, although I am curious what Allen does in Week 3 versus the Rams. But, I was wrong on Allen for 2020, and I’m sorry about that.
Tre’Quan Smith
Smith isn’t a big riser, but I feel like he deserves mention. Before the season, he found himself on waiver wires after failing to impress in either of his first two seasons. However, in Monday night’s game, the Saints turned to Smith, not veteran Emmanuel Sanders, to directly replace Michael Thomas in their featured receiver role. Smith led the Saints receivers in snaps, with 88% compared to 78% for Sanders.
While Smith didn’t have a full breakout performance, he caught five of seven targets for 86 yards. Smith is now the Saints’ WR2, and I would prefer to roster him over Sanders in dynasty leagues. If somehow he’s on waiver wires, he’s a must-add this week.
Fallers
Todd Gurley
Honestly, I believe that Gurley is washed up. He looked putrid in Week 2, taking 21 carries for a miserable 61 yards. The Falcons also chose not to target Gurley in the passing game, continuing his lack of passing game usage from 2019.
Most notably, the Falcons decided to give some red zone carries to Ito Smith, and they also involved Brian Hill. Considering Gurley’s failures thus far, I expect the Falcons to employ a backfield committee. I want Gurley off my dynasty rosters because he’s not going to get another starting job in 2021 if he plays this way. He only signed a 1-year, $5 million contract this offseason, and there’s no way he sees that type of deal again.
Anthony Miller
Miller is a must-sell right now before other smart dynasty owners realize what’s happening. The Bears only played Miller on 42 and 40% of offensive snaps in Weeks 1 and 2. He had a decent game in Week 1, catching four of six targets for 76 yards and a touchdown. However, he put up absolutely nothing in Week 2, and he dropped an easy touchdown.
At this point, Miller is a slot-only wide receiver in the Bears’ offense. Ted Ginn out-snapped him in Week 1 as the Bears’ secondary outside receiver behind Allen Robinson, and rookie Darnell Mooney did the same in Week 2. I’m not sure why, but the Bears are done with Miller as a focal point of their offense. Get out now while he maintains any value. Mooney is also a sneaky buy or pickup based on Miller’s usage, especially since the Bears made Ginn a healthy scratch in Week 2.
Sony Michel
Michel is the definition of a roster clogger. He’s had 10 and seven carries in the first two weeks, and he played 30 and 21% of offensive snaps. The Patriots don’t want to use him as a workhorse back, and now Cam Newton is their goal-line back.
Michel has totaled 56 yards on his 17 carries, and the Patriots also refuse to give him any passing-game work. You can’t drop Michel in dynasty leagues, but I would take whatever I could get in exchange for selling him. He’s a complete waste of time with no upside.
Benny Snell
Well, Snell quickly lost his job back to James Conner in Week 2. He played on 15% of offensive snaps, lost a fumble, and took three carries for five yards. While I think Snell could have a role in the future or if Conner goes down, I do not believe the Steelers will ever bench a healthy Conner for Snell.
The Steelers should also see what they have in fourth-round rookie Anthony McFarland, as he hasn’t played so far in 2020. Conner is a free-agent after the 2020 season, but I don’t see Snell as his replacement. I expect Snell and McFarland to compete for the backup role behind whoever the Steelers sign in free agency or draft high in the 2021 NFL Draft to replace Conner. Snell lost most of his upside and dynasty appeal this week.
Rob Gronkowski
Once again, I got this one wrong for 2020. I thought that Gronkowski would have a career revival in Tampa Bay with Tom Brady. However, the Buccaneers seem to prefer to use Gronkowski as a blocker. He’s totaled four targets and two receptions through two weeks, despite playing 77 and 69% of offensive snaps.
O.J. Howard has also outproduced Gronkowski, with nine targets and five receptions. It’s not like Howard is a fantasy asset, but he’s the tight end to own if you have to pick one on the Buccaneers. If “Rob Gronkowski” went by another name, that player would have no relevance in dynasty leagues. Sell his name value, and I would take anything I could get for him. I don’t think Gronkowski ever contributes to a dynasty roster ever again.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
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