Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series (offseason edition). Us dynasty managers must constantly research ways to bolster our rosters. Do you need advice on who to trade for? Maybe you’re looking for players to trade away. Do you have enough young talent to ensure your roster is set for years to come? Maybe you’re going all in and need a couple of pieces to sharpen your team. During this series, we dive deep into one player whose dynasty stock is increasing and one player whose dynasty stock is decreasing. As always, we will break down each NFL team one by one. Today is all about the Tennessee Titans.
Welcome to the Dynasty Market Sweep, a weekly recurring offseason article focusing on substantial value disparities in the dynasty market consensus. The very nature of the instantaneous fantasy news feed has made the dynasty market more reactionary and volatile than ever before. Once the proverbial petrol is poured and Twitter fingers snap to ignite, player values can burn to the ground overnight. Value changes of this nature cause a ripple effect across the market. For every step up the ladder, someone must move down and vice versa.
On Thursday, April 28th, at approximately 10:00 PM ET, A.J. Brown was traded from the Tennessee Titans to the Philadelphia Eagles for the 18th overall pick and a third-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. After this blockbuster deal, we need to recalibrate our expectations for every offensive player in Philadelphia and Tennessee. Who benefits the most, and whose stock is moving in the wrong direction?
You were already disappointed during the early part of the season if you went with a Zero-WR approach and expected WR1 numbers from Robert Woods but he quietly crept up as the WR12 after Week 9 just past the halfway point of the season. Now, some people want to claw their eyes out if they weren’t one of the few to sell early (It’s me. I’m some people) and are scrambling to recover for the playoff push. Luckily WR is a deep position and there are waiver and trade options to plugin.
The offense is great, and there are great players all-around. So the question is, is there room for OBJ to succeed? The answer is 100% yes. Sean McVay sold Beckham Jr. to LA by promising schemed plays to make use of his talent, almost assured single-coverage, and of course, a chance at a Super Bowl ring. We don’t care about the ring, but what we do care about is the schemed targets and how that will play out with Kupp, Woods, and Jefferson. Let’s dive into who will be the stars of this show, who will play the best supporting actor, and who gets relegated to understudy.
Unless we’re analyzing workhorse running backs or alpha wide receivers, a player’s usage can fluctuate from week to week. Some will shine and some will ruin your week. Remember, targets and opportunities are earned. In this series, I will provide weekly target shares, rushing attempt shares, and snap shares of SIX players (or group of players) to help you understand the value of each of them and decide whether to start ‘em, roster ‘em, or trade ‘em.
We are four weeks into the fantasy football season, and already the NFL looks a lot different than it did heading into Week 1. Devastating injuries, big breakouts, and shocking busts have likely reshaped the landscape of your fantasy league, as well. At this point, we’ll begin to see which teams are contenders and which teams are just pretenders.
In this article, I’ll be giving you a behind-the-scenes look at the DFF Redraft Championship league standings. I’ll provide a brief overview of each team and make a prediction about their rest-of-season performance. Ready for the tour? Let’s start in the basement.
Unless we’re analyzing workhorse running backs or alpha wide receivers, a player’s usage can fluctuate from week to week, some will shine and some will ruin your week. Remember, targets and opportunities are earned. In this series, I will provide weekly target shares, rushing attempt shares, and snap shares of SIX players (or group of players) to help you understand the value of each of them and decide whether to start ‘em, roster ‘em, or trade ‘em.
In this piece, I will be directly responding to a recent post by @Heady_Football in which he describes his ideal redraft draft strategy. In his article, he states that you should start your draft with three straight running backs while waiting on the other positions like wide receiver, tight end, and quarterback. I am here to tell you why I think there are better strategies to employ. So, after reading both you will truly be able to decide what you think is best.
Having a consistently high floor allows for a better chance to make the playoffs. But the title of this series is not how to make the playoffs. Our goal is to win. Assuming you read Part 1 of this series, you know that our plan in rounds 3-6 is to go after high upside wide receivers. This doesn’t mean that we are neglecting other positions and only looking at wide receivers, but the value here is tremendous. This is also why solidifying the running back position is so important to do early. It now allows us to chase value in these rounds.
Robert Woods has been one of the more consistent fantasy players these last few years. Yet, even with his steady production, it appears he always flies under the radar, and down the draft board. For whatever the reason may be, Woods has been vastly underrated by the fantasy community after proving year in and year out that he can put up solid numbers and boost a starting lineup. This article will dive into the numbers and look at the situation surrounding Woods, making the case for him to be a WR1 this season.
Thomas injured his ankle twice during the regular season last year and was expected to undergo surgery on it as early as January of 2021. Unfortunately for his team, it looks like now he won’t be looking 100% until we hit the ⅓ mark of the season. The Saints schedule has a bye Week 6 before they head into a Monday Night Football matchup against the division-rival Seahawks in Week 7. Given the expected timeline, it’s hard for me to imagine the Saints rushing him back there for the week 5 game against WFT at about the 3 to 3.5-month mark given the uncertainty of when the surgery actually occurred in June. Expecting a push for a Week 7 return makes the most sense when projecting this early on.
With the injury bug attacking San Francisco as a team in recent seasons, the rookie RB could find opportunities sooner than later. Jeff Wilson has already been struck with bad luck this offseason with a torn meniscus. Raheem Mostert is penciled in as the team’s starter for now, and he has played in all 16 games once in his seven years in the league. San Francisco also brought in Wayne Gallman from free agency this offseason, an RB who has never played in all 16 games and only holds 14 career starts under his belt in four seasons.
In comes the rookie out of Ohio State, Trey Sermon. He was drafted out of the third round in this year’s NFL Draft, and he may find a steady role in this offense. Although he isn’t known as an elite pass-catcher, it wouldn’t be surprising if he turned into one. Right now, there are the three other RBs that will battle with him for playing time, but if he could find a way to become a threat in the receiving game, there’s no doubt that he will take more snaps than both Gallman and Wilson.
Cam Akers suffered a torn Achilles while training, a headline first reported by the NFL Network’s Tom Pelisasero. Akers was trending up in all fantasy football formats, going as a late second to early third-round draft pick in Superflex start-up leagues. He also was going as early as the first round in Redraft formats. This is a crushing loss, and we hope for a safe recovery for this promising young man. With an injury of this magnitude, we cannot dwell in our sadness, we must look for opportunities that this has created for us to gain advantages in our fantasy leagues for 2021.
I specialize in the FFPC dynasty format, where there is a somewhat unique constraint that drives market action. You have to cut down to 16 players by the end of March, carrying just 20 in-season including a K and a DEF. That means that after the Super Bowl there is only about a month and a half to get deals done to get your roster trimmed down. Or you can risk cutting guys that have a lot of value. Most owners try to avoid that. This makes that particular trading period an absolute boon of market activity. There are lots of “one man’s junk is another man’s treasure” kind of deals. And there are lots of premiums paid for studs and there are lots of “cashing out dollars for three quarters” type of deals.
Would you ever trade a dollar bill for three quarters? If not, can you at least imagine a scenario where you would? If it wasn’t for charity or goodwill, but an actual self-serving purpose? No? Well, try this one on. Maybe I’m driving my family in the station wagon cross country to Wally World and run into some unplanned misadventures along the way. Maybe I need to make up some time and drive through the night. I’m going to need an ice-cold Coke to keep rolling, so I stop at a rest stop and go to the vending machine. I only have one dollar bill but I also have one quarter. Stay with me, the analogy is only going to get worse from here.
In March the NFL set the salary cap at $182.5 million. Which was a significant drop from 2020’s $198.2 million and even below 2019’s $188.2 million. It was the first time in seven years the cap didn’t increase by at least $10 million. With everything typically trending up, NFL teams faced cap issues heading into the 2021 offseason. We’ve already seen teams cutting veteran players and restructuring contracts. With a few notable free agents still out there and draft day approaching, what other moves could we see as teams maneuver around the cap?
Brandon Aiyuk began his collegiate football career at Sierra College, a community college in California. After a strong sophomore season, Aiyuk transferred to Arizona State. As a junior, Aiyuk underwhelmed alongside future first-round pick N’Keal Harry. But he blew up as a senior, recording a 40.6% dominator rating (81st percentile) with 65 receptions for 1,192 yards and eight TDs. Aiyuk was also incredibly dynamic at Arizona State, contributing on special teams as both a kick and punt returner.
There is no time when a draft pick is more valuable than when it is on the clock in your rookie draft. You have the power to select your favorite rookie prospect, but you also have the opportunity to trade the rights to the pick for what you view as more value to a league mate. By the time rookie drafts roll around, the ADP is more or less settled and we are targeting our favorite prospects within their given tier. Being right on one player versus another player is very important, but being in the situation to control your draft is even more crucial to success in your fantasy leagues.