A Star is Reborn?
Odell Beckham Jr. has officially chosen Los Angeles as his new home after clearing waivers, according to Tom Pelissero:
“Oh, what could have been” is a phrase that many in the fantasy community have recently used to describe OBJ’s career. One of the hottest starts ever for a wide receiver’s career came crashing to a halt due to being restrained by the poor decisions of the Giants organization, the volatile quarterbacking of Baker Mayfield in Cleveland, and several large injuries that kept him off the field. However, after clearing waivers on Monday, the 29-year-old receiver has a chance to reboot his career in the city of angels.
LA’s Newest Super Team
The NFL is essentially turning into the late 2010s of the NBA with the formations of these super teams, but luckily for us fans, that just means we have a host of potential “Davids” to root for against the new “Goliaths”. It was Lebron and AD leading the Lakers and now we get to add Odell Beckham Jr. to a team that already has Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee, and promising second-year receiver Van Jefferson. I’ll let the IDP folks talk about the Von Miller acquisition…but needless to say, the Rams are going all-in. Stafford is lighting it up in his first year in LA. Fantasy WR1 Cooper Kupp is on a historic pace. The offense is making people question if Cam Akers is good enough to become the lead-back when he returns next year because Darrell Henderson is fantasy’s RB12 even with missing one game due to injury.
The offense is great, and there are great players all-around. So the question is, is there room for OBJ to succeed? The answer is 100% yes. Sean McVay sold Beckham Jr. to LA by promising schemed plays to make use of his talent, almost assured single-coverage, and of course, a chance at a Super Bowl ring. We don’t care about the ring, but what we do care about is the schemed targets and how that will play out with Kupp, Woods, and Jefferson. Let’s dive into who will be the stars of this show, who will play the best supporting actor, and who gets relegated to understudy.
Star Status
I’ll start with the man at the center of it all, Quarterback Matthew Stafford. I don’t believe OBJ impacts Stafford’s fantasy ranking that much. The offense was already efficient and clicking, with Stafford throwing the ball almost 36 times per game giving him ample opportunities to put up the points he’s earned as fantasy’s QB2. Will the offense be so good that the Rams will only need to run the ball in the second half of games? That’s a risk, but one that’s tough to predict on any given Sunday, so just sit back and watch the show from here.
Cooper Kupp is a star. He hasn’t seen less than nine targets in any game this season. OBJ is talented, but Stafford isn’t going to fix what ain’t broken. Will Kupp continue this historic pace? He might not, but OBJ’s arrival does nothing to affect Kupp’s role in the offense. As we’ll get into later, there are plenty of targets available for OBJ without touching Kupp’s load. He’s going to keep shattering expectations as long as Stafford keeps feeding him.
Here comes the twist: I believe Odell Beckham Jr. will be a star the rest of this season. That’s right, a star is going to be reborn in LA. Everything is lining up for OBJ to see consistent, accurate targets in a high-octane offense and it’s the perfect setting for a comeback story. One you don’t even need to see in theaters! I believe OBJ will end up seeing the second-most targets weekly. They’re going to come from a combination of places, but mostly from the release of Desean Jackson and the overtaking of Van Jefferson. Jackson only saw three targets per game before his release, but Jefferson saw five, including seven targets in each of the past two games. Robert Woods is talented, but as long as Beckham Jr. is healthy, I believe he will be able to steal a target or two from him per game. This puts Beckham at around nine to ten targets per game. He’s averaged under six per game in his last year and a half in Cleveland. He also gets to see looks from a team with 23 passing touchdowns on the year instead of the eight passing touchdowns that Mayfield has. Bottom-line, OBJ has a chance to shine.
Best Supporting Actor
Robert Woods is the WR12 on the year, despite breaking 70 receiving yards in only two games this season. He’s been able to insulate most of his poor receiving games with touchdowns, but with a new toy in town, he may not get so lucky. Woods has been a very underrated receiver the past few years in fantasy even though he’s finished top 14 in PPR leagues every year since 2016! He was on pace for only seven fewer targets this year (16 game pace) than last year before the Odell news, but I just don’t see a world where Woods isn’t negatively impacted as long as OBJ is healthy. They’re both talented, but McVay didn’t sell Beckham on playing a supporting role. He sold him on schemed targets and Woods is the easy role to take them from. Woods should still see around six to nine targets in any game given Stafford’s 36 attempts, but he’s much more likely to see the lower end of that range as the WR3 in the offense. Further proof, Woods has seen six or fewer targets in five out of the nine games this season already. I’d move him off my teams as soon as I could.
Demoted to Understudy
Van Jefferson was just hitting his stride in his second season in the NFL, garnering 20 targets over the past three games. Unfortunately, the Rams could not pass up the opportunity to bring in a star. They are all about ratings out there. Jefferson may have earned those targets, however, he could only corral 10 of the 20 passes over the three-game span, for 172 yards and one touchdown. The yards per catch is impressive, but connecting on half won’t get the job done. I was a fan of Jefferson in the predraft process, believing him to be one of the cleanest route runners in the draft, but now this Van will have to sit in the garage while Stafford takes out the Cadillacs.
What do you think Rams’ new super team? Do you think OBJ can reach star status once again or is he washed? Hit me up @DFF_JoeMem on Twitter to let me know! And be sure to sign up for the DFF monthly subscription so you can have access to our Dynasty Rankings and be one step ahead of the competition!
