In March the NFL set the salary cap at $182.5 million. Which was a significant drop from 2020’s $198.2 million and even below 2019’s $188.2 million. It was the first time in seven years the cap didn’t increase by at least $10 million. With everything typically trending up, NFL teams faced cap issues heading into the 2021 offseason. We’ve already seen teams cutting veteran players and restructuring contracts. With a few notable free agents still out there and draft day approaching, what other moves could we see as teams maneuver around the cap?
Notable Cuts, Moves, and Remaining Free Agents
Some of the cuts were veteran players with little to no upside as far as fantasy production going forward. Names like: Mark Ingram, Duke Johnson, Tyler Eifert, Devonta Freeman, Golden Tate, Adam Humphries, and Alex Smith. These players were cut and at the time of writing, only Ingram and Humphries have found new homes.
Other players have fallen into decent enough situations which could present an opportunity for them to be relevant in the 2021 season: John Brown, Tyrell Williams, Jared Cook, and Emmanuel Sanders.
Similar cuts and moves have happened with veteran defensive players. I don’t play with IDPs, so I won’t be getting into them. The free agency pool of veteran defensive players does however have quite a few high-profile names from bygone years.
The remaining potentially fantasy-relevant free agents (that weren’t cut) include Antonio Brown and James Conner. Former top backs Todd Gurley and Le’Veon Bell also remain unsigned. This shows just how quickly RBs can hit a wall.
Franchise Tags and Signings
Only two fantasy-relevant players will be playing on the franchise tag this season: Allen Robinson and Chris Godwin. Robinson isn’t expected to return to Bears next season but ultimately signed the tag. Many believe he signed it as the Bears were making a push to land Kenny Golladay. I think it’s because he saw what the market looked like this season. And ultimately decided to sign it before the Bears withdrew the offer.
While there were a ton of notable signings, it is interesting to note that many of them are only one-year contracts. Some look like “prove it” deals and are laced with incentives. While others look like teams are simply trying to rent a guy until they can find a replacement.
The Agholor offer turned heads as it seems as though the Patriots may have overpaid based on the market. The most meaningful long-term contracts came from the Cowboys finally extending Dak Prescott, the Giants getting Daniel Jones a weapon and paying Kenny Golladay, and the Packers extending Aaron Jones. All of these deals were over four years which was a hard mark to reach this offseason.
Restructuring Contracts
Many teams began the process of moving money around by restructuring contracts. Players like Patrick Mahomes, Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Robert Woods, and Jalen Ramsey all saw their contracts restructured. When teams restructure contracts, they turn base salary into a signing bonus, which can be spread out over multiple years.
This was a common move this offseason because the cap is expected to rebound in the upcoming seasons. As long as fans return to stadiums and television deals develop. Basically, it’s a way for franchises to “kick the can down the road” so to speak. Waiting to deal with a financial problem later when (hopefully) there’ll be more funds.
How Will This Affect the Future?
This will affect players trying to get large deals, looking to extend before the final year of their rookie contract, and trying to stay in the league without taking pay cuts. I’ve already talked about how this is an imminent danger to veteran players as they will often become cap casualties if they are unwilling to renegotiate or take a cut in salary.
The franchise tag could become an issue because if a highly paid player is supposed to get 120% of their previous year’s salary, some franchises may not be able to afford that. Meaning we could see high-profile players walk in free agency because their team doesn’t have the financial means to keep them around.
The real hardship will fall on teams with limited draft capital as draft capital is the best way of acquiring players for relatively little money. A team like the Texans might suffer even more because, they lack significant draft capital. They will be forced to make up their roster using later-round picks, undrafted free agents, or signing veterans to low-value deals.
Early picks are more likely to hit and be meaningful contributors than later-round picks. Teams like the Dolphins and the Jaguars have multiple early-round picks. Giving them a chance to set themselves up nicely for the future.
How Long Will This Last?
Although the salary cap is expected to increase in 2022, it still may not surpass the 2020 mark. It could take multiple years for the cap to rebound. As the NFL tries to make up for losses due to COVID-19 during the 2020 season. If things get back on the “$10 million every year” trajectory, we would see a cap of $192.5 million in 2022 and finally surpass 2020’s cap in 2023. That’s a best-case scenario as it may take even longer for the NFL to try and recoup what they lost in 2020.
Thanks for reading! If you have any fantasy questions, reach out to me on Twitter @fantasyonefive, and be sure to check out the rest of my work on DFF!
