Welcome back to Fantasy Fact or Cap for Dynasty Football Factory, the article with hot questions and even hotter answers. I’m your host, Matt Ward (@PsychWardFF), and I have a laundry list of trending narratives to break down for you today. Without further ado, let’s look at some of the most talked-about topics in fantasy football and decipher whether they are fact or cap.
Injuries are inevitable in fantasy football. How you prepare and react to them is what can make or break your fantasy team. Did you build a bench with sufficient depth to withstand the running back carousel? How do you pivot if a key player goes on injured reserve? Each week we will look at the most impactful injuries in the fantasy world and what players will step up their fantasy production as a result.
Reports are posturing that Kenny Pickett is merely an afterthought at the Steelers’ mandatory training camp. Mitchell Trubisky and Mason Rudolph appear locked in a battle for the starting gig, with the newly-minted 20th overall pick riding the pine. Today, we open up the case file on the Steelers’ 2022 first-round draft pick to hyper-analyze his future as an NFL quarterback and, ultimately, an effective dynasty asset.
Welcome to the Dynasty Market Sweep, a weekly recurring offseason article focusing on substantial value disparities in the dynasty market consensus. The very nature of the instantaneous fantasy news feed has made the dynasty market more reactionary and volatile than ever before. Once the proverbial petrol is poured and Twitter fingers snap to ignite, player values can burn to the ground overnight. Value changes of this nature cause a ripple effect across the market. For every step up the ladder, someone must move down and vice versa.
Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series (offseason edition). Us Dynasty Managers must constantly research ways to bolster our rosters. Do you need advice on who to trade for? Maybe you’re looking for players to trade away. Do you have enough young talent to ensure your roster is set for years to come? Maybe you’re going all in and need a couple of pieces to sharpen your team. During this series, we dive deep into one player whose dynasty stock is increasing and one player whose dynasty stock is decreasing. As always, we will break down each NFL team one by one. Today is all about the Pittsburgh Steelers.
For all but two teams, the NFL season is over. There are no more lineups to set or waiver claims to make, which can only mean one thing: the dynasty offseason is upon us. At this time of year, which is really like its own game within the game, mock drafts are incredibly valuable. They help us to understand how the public perception of players (say that five times fast) has shifted over the past several months. Even if you don’t plan on joining any new startups, a mock draft can help you to identify players–or even whole positions–that are over or undervalued by the community. Since I recently completed a startup mock draft with some of my friends here at DFF, I thought I would share some of my observations with you.
Once again, I need to give a big shoutout to Matt (@PsychWardFF on Twitter) for taking over Paul’s Picks in Week 13. Despite his incredibly solid process, Matt had a pretty unlucky week of picks. Of course, in this totally upside-down season, we all seem to be getting more wrong than right. But this week, I’m hoping to right the ship. In many leagues, this is the final week of the fantasy regular season. In others, the playoffs have already begun. Either way, there is a lot on the line. So, let’s take a look at some names at every position that I believe will exceed expectations or fall flat in Week 14.
I’m not saying Mac Jones is the next Patrick Mahomes or even Justin Herbert. But he’s now a solid prospect with the potential to have a very safe floor for a long time. Think Kirk Cousins or Derek Carr. Neither of them makes you feel giddy but you don’t want to undersell a sneaky QB1 or high-end QB2. Mac Jones may not be a Lamar Jackson-type fantasy darling but he is a quality “real” quarterback that you shouldn’t worry about losing his job anytime soon. The Patriots are back in the playoff hunt and much of that success is due to the rookie’s success.
We’re now through Week 12 in the NFL and things are still never as they seem. Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were in a high-scoring affair against Jonathan Taylor and the Indianapolis Colts. Brady only threw one touchdown in a game where 69 total points were scored. With that being said, let’s see how my weekly DFS picks played out!
Unless we’re analyzing workhorse running backs or alpha wide receivers, a player’s usage can fluctuate from week to week. Some will shine and some will ruin your week. Remember, targets and opportunities are earned. After two weeks of disappearing, I will be making a special edition. In this series, I will provide target shares, rushing attempt shares, and snap shares of EIGHT players (or group of players) on this past three weeks to help you understand the value of each of them and decide whether to start ‘em, roster ‘em, or trade ‘em.
Michael Carter has been the RB3 over the last four weeks. Let that sink in. It’s worth reminding folks that the Jets’ running back has been leading the team in target and relying on this receiving volume might not always be sustainable but the talent is being noticed. The GM and coaching staff need to put all their effort into the offensive line this offseason before we see the rushing efficiency we’d want out of a running back but I continue to be encouraged by all the moves I’ve seen thus far. Buy him now while there are still those who doubt.
Is it already Week 10? Time is sure flying by, and the end of the fantasy season is looming. These next few weeks are HUGE for your attempt at a playoff push. With four teams on bye, this is going to be a week where you need to rely on some streaming options, and there are some good ones! Remember, throughout this series, we will provide the best weekly options to stream at quarterback, tight end, and D/ST. Keep in mind, each streaming option will be below 50% owned, according to ESPN leagues.
No touchdowns despite a decent rushing game that resulted in a flex-like game for Khalil Herbert. The Chicago offense looked much better while Matt Nagy was out (more on this later) and Justin Fields vultured opportunities after a healthy uptick in rushing usage. It’s obviously disappointing to those hoping to have another RB2 performance before Montgomery’s return but consider this encouraging for all of our Chicago shares in the future. Herbert should have Tony Pollard-like upside in the future and is a hold no matter what.
Philadelphia’s game against Tampa Bay was strange all-around and DeVonta Smith had one of his worst games of the season. The Eagles have a banged-up offensive line and all but abandoned the run game and pass inefficiently without it complimenting the play-action. It should also be noted that Zack Ertz, who lead the team in targets for the game, is now gone. DeVonta Smith should arguably be in the ‘To the Moon’ category, but the rookie’s value may be cheaper as we head into byes and his bad game. Teams will be evaluating if they’re ready to win or not and may want to sell for something more certain.
The Chuba Hubbard lottery ticket has finally hit, and it’s time for non-CMC owners to cash in while they can. Yes, you need to cash in. Hubbard doesn’t have great vision and doesn’t have the offensive line to overcome that major flaw. Hubbard isn’t anywhere near the talent of Christian McCaffrey and desperate owners competing would more than likely pay a second-round that could turn into an actual starter.
Elijah Mitchell is RB1 in San Francisco if he’s healthy. Sermon didn’t enter the game until Mitchell left it with a shoulder injury, then he left with a concussion. The entire offense struggled against an Eagles’ defense that looks legitimate against the run once again, so the 17 carries with limited efficiency are still encouraging to see. Mitchell will be a must-start in all formats while healthy until Sermon does enough to take over, or Jeff Wilson comes back to take the starting role. Most coaches stick with the younger hot hands over veterans back from injury.
Nothing has changed for Justin Fields since last week. He got his own package to get a few plays just like Trey Lance, and completed two for two passing for 10 yards, and running it in for his first real touchdown. The current Bears starter still looks like a competent backup and not the guy you want starting when you’re an HC on the hot seat. Chicago’s rushing attack looks fantastic and will relieve pressure off the rookie once he takes the reins. I can’t wait to see more RPO play-calls with him and David Montgomery. The time for Fields to start is any day now, so buy now before he gets even more expensive than he is.
Wilson has looked confident and in control the entire preseason and has a clear rapport with expected WR1 Corey Davis. He’s flashed not only the ability to make every throw but the savvy to know when to make the throw. I expect him to have lots of support with this running game straight from the Shanahan coaching tree, and we haven’t yet seen the explosive playmaking from Elijah Moore in a real game. Wilson has a blend of underrated mobility and Rodgers-Esque arm talent that can make him every bit worth the draft capital. I’m buying into the fact that the Jets want to change the culture and want pieces of this team before they boom next season.
Pat Freiermuth | Penn State 6’5” 251 lbs. 10/25/1999 (Age …
DFF Draft Coverage: Pat Freiermuth to the Steelers Read More »
In this series, we are going to do a deep dive into the top 2021 NFL Draft Class’s wide receivers, and see who they compare to historically. We are going to build them out from the standpoint of their physical acumen, their athletic abilities, and then bring it full circle by looking into their college production. Combining these three components we will settle on a final comparison that I believe most accurately outlines each player’s potential range of outcomes in the NFL. We will count down the top-15 pass-catchers with their comparable players as our countdown to the NFL Draft on Thursday, April 29th.
