Best Startup Value Per Round: Part 2

Welcome back for Part 2 of this three-part series, where I give you my favorite Dynasty startup value in each round of a Superflex format. I’ve pulled ADP from Dynasty Data Lab, created by @Adeiko_FF. Adeiko’s ADP is widely considered the most accurate and up-to-date in the Dynasty community. You can view the complete list of startup ADP here, and I’ve also included a snapshot of rounds 7-12, which are the rounds I’ll be covering here in Part 2. If you haven’t checked out Part 1, you can check that out here.

My values will be based on a Dynasty Superflex, PPR, TEP format. Adeiko’s ADP currently has rookie picks in place of the rookies themselves, so this series is based on the assumption you are drafting rookie picks in your startup and will have your subsequent rookie draft after the NFL draft.

Round 7

Will Levis (7.12)

As a second-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Levis doesn’t have the same job stability as someone like Bryce Young. However, we know Levis has the starting job locked up for next season at minimum, and it appears the Titans’ front office has every intention of making this guy their franchise quarterback. All reports suggest HC Brian Callahan is a big believer in Will Levis, and their relationship is off to a great start. 

We saw some flashes of competence from Levis as a rookie, throwing for four touchdowns in his first game as a starter in Week 8. Maybe he ends up being a bust, but at the 7-8 turn, I’m more than happy to grab Levis as (hopefully) my QB3. Young quarterbacks with guaranteed starting jobs are a thing to be coveted in Superflex formats, even if that prospect is probably bad. 

Round 8 

Matthew Stafford (8.06)

I’ll stick with the quarterback position here, with my favorite Round 8 value, Matthew Stafford. At 36 years old, Stafford is no spring chicken, but he’s the guaranteed starter in Los Angeles for at least the next two seasons unless he decides to surprise us all and retire before then. Stafford is on contract through 2026, and the Rams don’t have a potential out until after the 2025 season. If you’re telling me I can get mid-QB2 production for the next two years in the middle of the 8th round, I’m taking that in a heartbeat. 

Due to Stafford’s age and limited rushing upside, he’s going to be a better real-life talent than a fantasy quarterback, but he can absolutely get you a Top-15 QB finish based on volume alone. He just did it last year. In Adeiko’s ADP, Stafford is going just before the 2.01 rookie pick, right around QB26 (assuming four rookie QBs are selected before him). I can almost guarantee you that, barring any injuries, Stafford will far outperform his QB26 ranking each of the next two years. Take the cheap production here and enjoy scoring lots of fantasy points. 

Round 9

Christian Watson (9.02)

I can’t lie; it felt weird typing out Christian Watson’s name in a “best value” article. If you know me, you know I’ve been a Watson doubter since his rookie season. I even wrote an article on CWat last year, explaining why he may be the next D.J. Chark (you can check that out here). But, as is a common phrase amongst analysts in the Dynasty community, we don’t hate players; we hate ADPs. And at the time I wrote that article, Watson was valued as the WR18 in Dynasty. Now, he’s going around WR40 (depending on how many rookie WRs go ahead of him). This is way more palatable, to the point I think he’s a pretty clear buy. 

While I think his rookie season was a bit of fool’s gold, we can’t dismiss the production altogether. Watson finished the 2022 season with 2.40 YPRR (WR12), leading the NFL in fantasy points per target. He was a hyper-efficient WR as a rookie who happened to have some poor luck staying healthy. While I stand by my D.J. Chark comp, Watson is still young enough that we can believe in the ceiling. He’s a highly athletic playmaker tied to a promising young franchise quarterback. I’ll take that bet in the 9th round.  

Round 10

Michael Mayer (10.04)

I can’t point to any analytics on this one to make my case. Michael Mayer finished his rookie season with 1.11 YPRR, 13.6% TPRR, and a PFF receiving grade of just 66.1. By all accounts, this is bad. But I think we were a little spoiled with Sam LaPorta‘s rookie production and are forgetting that it takes a while for these tight ends to get ramped up to speed in most cases. Michael Mayer is still the TE1 on this Raiders offense, and he’ll only be 23 years old entering his second NFL season. 

Mayer was an early Day 2 draft pick, and we can reasonably expect a quarterback upgrade this upcoming season. The Raiders are still in the running for Kirk Cousins, Justin Fields, and Russell Wilson. They could also be looking at Bo Nix or J.J. McCarthy or potentially trading up to grab one of the top three rookie quarterback prospects in this 2024 class. Regardless, it won’t be Aidan O’Connell under center, which is a good thing. 

Round 11

Marquise Brown (11.05)

Hollywood Brown has seen his Dynasty stock plummet since last season. In 2023 startups, I saw him go in the 6th and 7th rounds. Now, just one year later, we can take this man in the middle of the 11th? It’s not like he’s over 30. He’s only turning 27 this summer. 

I get it. The production really hasn’t been there as expected throughout his career. We’ve only seen one Top-24 finish from Hollywood in five years. But he’s also struggled with injuries, and he’s always been someone who gets targeted at a high rate. He’s finished with over 20% TPRR each of the past four seasons, which isn’t elite, but it’s pretty damn good based on where he’s being drafted. KeepTradeCut has Brown valued at WR49, and Adeiko’s ADP appears to be similar after factoring in rookie WRs. The one concern is where Hollywood will be playing in 2024, but I’m not too concerned with the landing spot. He’s demanded targets wherever he goes, and at this ADP, he won’t have to do a ton to pay off his cost. 

Round 12 

Pat Freiermuth (12.03)

Freiermuth is valued around the TE17/18 in Adeiko’s ADP, which is considerably lower than where we had him ranked this time last year. I do understand the concerns. The quarterback situation is still up in the air (please, no Kenny Pickett again), and Arthur Smith is the new OC in Pittsburgh. He’ll probably decide Connor Heyward is his best pass-catcher and use Freiermuth solely as a decoy out there. All jokes aside, though, Pat is a good player, and we shouldn’t give up on the talent this early. He’ll still only be 25 to start next season, entering Year 4, which is usually when tight ends are finally entering their prime. He finished as the TE8 overall in 2022. I’m taking 2023 with a grain of salt, as injuries slowed him down. 

Freiermuth likely won’t ever be a league winner for your fantasy team, but he has TE1 upside and is incredibly young. He’s going just before the 2.07 in Adeiko’s ADP, which is certainly not a safe bet. I know Freiermuth is a good player, and I’ll gladly take a guy I can start on a weekly basis in the 12th round. 

Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @jim_DFF. Until next time, keep grinding out there, DFF family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding