Welcome back to Fantasy Fact or Cap for Dynasty Football Factory, the article with hot questions and even hotter answers. I’m your host, Matt Ward (@PsychWardFF), and I have a laundry list of trending narratives to break down for you today. Without further ado, let’s look at some of the most talked-about topics in fantasy football and decipher whether they are fact or cap.
DAMEON PIERCE HAS INSULATED VALUE AS A FUTURE RB1
Cap
Paul Patterson (@fantasyfreezer) recently conducted a masterful piece for Dynasty Football Factory, expanding on the above post. Paul illuminates the historical data against Dameon Pierce and his “Asymmetrical Downside” as an asset. Managing a dynasty roster is about mitigating risk while continuously looking for ways to increase the overall value of your team, much like a stock portfolio. The overwhelming amount of information we have surrounding Day 3 running back selections tells us that heavily investing in the Texans’ rookie is the antithesis of risk aversion. It is hard to sway contending managers who wish to hold Pierce for his current production, but consider this: Dameon Pierce and Miles Sanders are less than 1.0 PPG apart in PPR scoring yet Pierce ranks inside the top ten assets at the position, according to market consensus. On the other hand, Sanders ranks outside the top 20. Trading Pierce for a player of equivalent production like Sanders plus several other meaningful assets is a process that yields positive results more often than not.
AJ DILLON IS NOTHING MORE THAN A MEDIOCRE HANDCUFF
Fact
AJ Dillon is inarguably one of the biggest disappointments of the 2022 season. Dillon’s drastic descent down the dynasty ladder has coincided with a dreadful draught of meandering production. The Packers’ third-year running back opened the season with 15 touches for 91 scrimmage yards and one touchdown (20.1 PPR PTS) on 47.5% of the offensive snaps. Dillon has not scored a touchdown or crossed the 10.0-point threshold since. His snap share dwindled to a laughable 27.7% in Week 7, cementing his place as an alternative option. The bruising back out of Boston College is not nearly efficient enough to maintain relevance in a limited work share. He’s averaging a mere 4.2 yards per touch (RB48) and 0.59 fantasy points per opportunity (RB66), leveling out as the RB45 in PPG (8.2) this season. Dillon is merely a handcuff for managers that roster Aaron Jones and holds little value as a dynasty asset moving forward.
TEE HIGGINS > JA’MARR CHASE
Cap
The start of the 2022 season kicked up some fiery debates regarding the Bengals duo of star wideouts. Higgins perennially out-targeted and out-performed his counterpart during the first four games. Chase has since caught fire, overtaking his teammate with two consecutive weeks as the WR1 overall, averaging 32.6 PPR PPG in those contests. It was asinine to ever assume Higgins could supersede Chase on the Bengals depth chart or in Dynasty Rankings.
However, Chase’s rightful ascent as Joe Burrow’s top pass-catcher does not hinder Higgins’ future outlook as a top-5 positional asset. His perceived value has been on a slow decline since his 0.0-point performance in Week 5 where he suited up despite an ankle injury and received zero targets. Although his recent slew of production is discouraging, the peripheral metrics and outlying stats surrounding Higgins and his future trajectory remain elite. The third-year wideout has earned seven or more targets in every game this season, save for his injury game in Week 5. He ranks second on the Bengals in receptions (31), yards (455), and targets (44) despite essentially missing an entire contest and sits 21st overall in True Target Value* (4.33), indicating positive regression is on the horizon. Furthermore, the Bengals are beginning to up the pace on the offensive side of the ball, moving further away from the pedestrian play-calling of head coach Zac Taylor.
The offense ranks ninth in passing percentage per game, averaging a pass attempt on 61.0% of plays called. Increased volume means positive things for every pass-catcher on the Bengals’ offense and should allow Higgins to return the high-end WR2 production he was drafted to uphold.
*True Target Value analyzes a player’s quantity and quality of targets and, in correspondence with their quarterback’s True Throw Value, computes a number meant to show how valuable said player’s targets are. The higher the value, the more projected points.
TRAVIS ETIENNE IS A TOP 5 DYNASTY RB
Fact
The trade of James Robinson should have no bearing on your perceived value of Travis Etienne as a superstar dynasty running back. Etienne was trending towards a complete usurpation of the Jaguars’ backfield well before Robinson was on the move to the Big Apple (New Jersey, really). Week 6 marked the first outing in which Travis Etienne played more snaps than Robinson, recording a 46.0% snap share to Robinson’s 43.0%, setting the inaugural takeover of the backfield albeit on the slightest of edges. That edge became razor sharp in Week 7, slicing open the Jaguars’ depth chart and leaving Etienne atop the ranks as a true three-down workhorse. He played a season-high 80% of snaps with 67% of the team’s rushing attempts. The explosive back was utilized in every game scenario as the team leader in long-distance snaps of 8 yards or more (91.0%), two-minute offense (82.0%), and short yardage snap (57.0%) as the only back to gain a look inside the red zone. Robinson saw his snap share drop to just 17% before being shipped to the Jets following the game.
Jaguars Week 7 RB Usage Splits:
Etienne: 57 Snaps/14 RSH/20 ROUTE/5 TGT/19 OPP/15 TOUCH
Robinson: 12 Snaps/0 RSH/2 ROUTE/1 TGT/1 OPP/0 TOUCH
Etienne was uber-effective with his opportunity share, averaging 8.1 yards per carry and 7.9 yards per touch. The rookie phenom out of Clemson has now logged three consecutive Top-24 RB weeks, surpassing the 100 yards from scrimmage in all three contests.
Week 5: 114 YDS/RB 22(14.4 PPR PTS)
Week 6: 108 YDS/RB 18 (12.8 PPR PTS)
Week 7: 119 yards/1 TD/RB 8 (18.9 PPR PTS)
The market landscape for dynasty running backs is more fluid than ever amidst catastrophic injuries and the rapid decline of several top-ranked veterans. There are few assets at the running back position safer than Etienne. His ranking as a top-5 positional asset will likely remain stable until the 2023 off-season.
NAJEE HARRIS IS STILL A DYNASTY RB1
Cap
Oh how quickly the mightily inefficient can fall when their volume is stripped away to unveil their mediocre talent. Najee Harris was amongst the most ineffective running backs in NFL history on a per-touch basis in his rookie season. Harris is the only running back since 2012 to tally over 300 carries and finish with a negative rushing yards over expected (RYOE) score. The Steelers back handled 307 rushing attempts, garnering -0.26 RYOE/ATT. A league-leading opportunity share buoyed the first-rounders exposition despite his inability to create yards of his own volition. Now, in his second season, Harris’ opportunity share has dwindled, leaving his production at a level that is easily replaceable by younger, more efficient, and cheaper running backs on the dynasty market. Harris is averaging 10.8 PPR PPG (RB27) and will turn 25 before the end of the 2022 season. Harris’ dynasty value is dissipating faster than a sand castle in a tsunami and will not withstand the oncoming wave of top-end running back talent entering the 2023 NFL Draft.
GEORGE PICKENS WILL TAKE OVER AS THE STEELERS WR1
Fact
A double dose of Steelers narratives for all the Yinzers. George Pickens is a human highlight reel filled with game-breaking grabs and pancake blocks against unsuspecting defensive backs. The rookie’s hard-nosed attitude and early-season production scream alpha receiver. Unfortunately, his placement as the third wide receiver on the depth chart has not reflected that rising role. Pickens ranks fourth on the team in targets behind Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and Pat Freiermuth while trailing all three in snap percentage as well. Nevertheless, a changing of the guard appears imminent now that Kenny Pickett is under center. Pickens has scored more than 12 fantasy points in three of his last four games, earning 28 targets (7 TGT/G) with 21 receptions (5.25 REC/G) for 273 receiving yards (68.25 REC YDS/G). The Steelers blossoming young wideout remains locked as the tertiary option but has begun to outperform both of his veteran teammates even with limited opportunities. Over the past four outings, Pickens flashed the ammo necessary to spark a powder keg of WR1 output. Pickens’ four-game splits lead all Steelers pass-catchers in receiving production while trailing Diontae Johnson by a mere six targets.
In the games in which Pickett has remained under center, Pickens has excelled as the first read. A gigantic spike in value and production is on the rise for Pickens as he builds a rapport with his rookie quarterback. The Steelers are reportedly shopping around Chase Claypool in trade offers before the league’s November 1st deadline. Any movement on the Steelers’ depth chart would ultimately open up a massive role for Pickens. An increase in snap percentages and route participation could lead to consistent production for the star rookie. Managers should attempt to use his low rank on the Steelers’ depth chart to get ahead of potential market shifts before the takeover is complete.
TYLER ALLGEIER WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD THE FALCONS BACKFIELD
Cap
https://twitter.com/HodgepodgeHoops/status/1582808522202370048?s=20&t=utcQRWCcOD33YeqdG5usaQAs the above post states, “by next year… he may be the one.” Rookie running back Tyler Allgeier finally touched paydirt for his first NFL score against the Bengals in Week 7. Honestly, with the way head coach Arthur Smith has been running the ball at all costs (winning included)/it’s a wonder that Allgeier took this long to break the scoring plane in the first place. The Falcons were trailing by seven or more points for 100.0% of their offensive possessions against the Bengals. Smith allowed his offense to attempt 13 passes in an unexplainable execution of a losing game plan.
Smith refused to abandon the run game, allowing Allgeier to handle 16 of the Falcons’ 29 rush attempts. Somehow, the rookie only managed 50 yards on the ground, breaking the plane of the end zone on a goal-line carry that your local grocer could have scored on. Allgeier is nothing more than a placeholder until Cordarrelle Patterson returns from injured reserve, a date that is merely two weeks away. The fourth-round rookie is still conceding valuable snaps and carries to Caleb Huntley and Avery Williams and holds no realistic chance of superseding Patterson if all members of the backfield are healthy. The best-case scenario for the young running back is a two-way committee where he handles the majority of carries on a low-scoring offense with Patterson taking pass-catching duties. What little value Allgeier holds as the Falcons starter will rapidly dissipate once Patterson returns.
TONY POLLARD IS MORE EFFECTIVE THAN EZEKIEL ELLIOT
Fact
Tony Pollard is not only more effective and efficient than Ezekiel Elliott, but he is also one of the most explosive running backs in the entire NFL. The former fourth-round pick averages 5.6 yards per carry, 9.5 yards per reception, and 6.2 yards per touch, all ranked in the top six at the position. Although Pollard being the more effective of the two is an undeniable fact, it seems as if the Cowboys are intent on running Elliott and his 100-million-dollar contract into the ground until the wheels fall off. The Cowboys’ franchise workhorse accounts for 61.9% of the offense’s rushing attempts on a 61.1% snap share.
Week 7 marked the first game of the 2022 season in which Pollard received more snaps (65.0%) than his veteran counterpart, out-producing Elliott on the ground and through the air. Unfortunately, Pollard fell on the wrong side of touchdown variance as it was Elliott who found the end zone not once, but twice in the matchup. At this juncture in their careers, there is no debating who the more efficient player is but none of it will matter until the coaching staff acknowledges Pollard’s talent with an increased opportunity share.
THE 49ERS WERE A BAD LANDING SPOT FOR CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY
Cap
There is no such thing as a bad landing spot for a talent as special as Christian McCaffrey. The 49ers blockbuster acquisition of the former MVP candidate from the Panthers caused shockwaves throughout the dynasty community with several naysayers projecting a reduced ceiling for the star running back. Indeed, McCaffrey’s absurd opportunity share will likely decrease in the 49ers’ star-studded offense but the weighted value of his touches should mitigate any assumed regression. Kyle Shanahan has produced 20.0-PPG running backs out of thin air and now has the league’s most versatile weapon at the position as the focal point of his offense. McCaffrey may have needed >80.0% of the Panthers’ low-value touches to maintain his RB1 ceiling before the trade. He does not need a league-leading opportunity share to match that production in a system tailor-made to maximize his skill set. The more likely outcome is that McCaffrey eats into the ceiling of his new teammates (Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle) as opposed to conceding opportunities to them.
BIJAN ROBINSON IS THE DYNASTY RB1 DESPITE BEING IN COLLEGE
Fact
Speed:
Power:
Receiving:
Bijan Robinson is a dream prospect for dynasty managers and is largely responsible for the astronomical value attached to 2023 rookie draft picks. Robinson excels above his peers in every aspect of the game, exhibiting a prospect profile that has both film-based and analytic-based scouts joining forces in celebration. The theory that a devy asset can claim the throne to dynasty RB1 without being in the NFL creates understandable pushback from fellow dynasty theorists. “One in the hand is worth two in the bush.” Conversely, I would argue that the sole value of the 2023 1.01 rookie pick holds more liquidity than any active NFL running back solely because Robinson’s name is already attached to it.
Dynasty managers are finding new and creative ways to force their way into a tanking season for the opportunity to select Robinson first off the board in their 2023 rookie drafts. The Texas product may very well be the last true generational running back prospect we see as the position is being redefined and devalued across both the NFL and NCAA. The market power that Robinson holds before even entering the league is palpable across all markets. Robinson will likely surpass the value of all running backs the moment his name is called on Draft Night.
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
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