Reports are posturing that Kenny Pickett is merely an afterthought at the Steelers’ mandatory training camp. Mitchell Trubisky and Mason Rudolph appear locked in a battle for the starting gig, with the newly-minted 20th overall pick riding the pine. Today, we open up the case file on the Steelers’ 2022 first-round draft pick to hyper-analyze his future as an NFL quarterback and, ultimately, an effective dynasty asset.
SUBJECT
Kenny Pickett, QB – Pittsburgh Steelers
Alma Mater: Pittsburgh
Age: 24
MEASURABLES
Height: 6′ 3″
Weight: 217 lbs.
Arms: 30 7/8″
Hands: 8 1/2″
NFL COMBINE RESULTS
40 Yard Dash: 4.73s
Bench Press: N/A
Vertical Jump: 33.5”
Broad Jump: 121”
3 Cone Drill: N/A
20 Yd Shuttle: 4.29s
60 Yd Shuttle: N/A
DFF DRAFT PROFILE
2022 DFF Draft Coverage: Kenny Pickett – Dynasty Football Factory
CRIME ACCUSED
The defendant is reportedly a career backup-caliber quarterback as accused by his team’s beat reporters.
THE GOOD
If there is one thing Kenny Pickett has over his competition, it’s collegiate experience and maturity. Pickett is already a 24-year-old rookie entering the NFL after five years of college football experience. His added year of play for his alma mater paid off in a big way as Pickett lit the ACC on fire, torching defenses to the tune of 4,319 passing yards and 42 touchdowns while only throwing seven interceptions. The fifth-year senior broke onto the scene with a game-changing (literally) fake slide en route to winning the ACC championship. Although it would be deemed a foul if repeated, Pickett’s patience and crafty move show a deepened nuance of understanding and timing amidst chaos. His maturity and repetition may be his strongest suit, and sitting throughout an entire season would undoubtedly make for a problematic trajectory.
THE BAD
Pickett’s strengths are also his downfalls. His time spent in college does not necessarily increase his positive range of outcomes. A fifth-year senior with minimal collegiate production prior to their final season is an unlikely bet to maintain success at the NFL level. Managers will point to the extreme outlier of Joe Burrow’s ascent to the first overall pick as a measuring stick for Pickett’s projected career arc. Burrow’s insulated value as a top-10 draft pick puts him in a different tier of prospects. I have illustrated the stability of rookie quarterback value on a year-to-year basis in a previous article entitled: Rookie QB Value Review. Pickett’s 20th overall draft capital puts him well outside the range of value stability for quarterbacks that underperform or fail to see the field in their first season.
Chris Miles, Author at Dynasty Football Factory (@ChrisMiles1017), compared Pickett’s collegiate profile to the elite thresholds necessary for relevant fantasy production in the NFL.
Pickett falls shy in several predictive thresholds, only surpassing the best season completion percentage mark by a mere 0.7%. His athleticism is sub-par, with minimal upside in the rushing department while faster NFL defenders are in pursuit. His hand size has been well documented as more than just a hilarious parody, marking a major red flag for his ability to secure the ball in pressure situations, as exemplified in this study on whether or not Size Matters for NFL Quarterbacks. If he is expected to become a worthwhile producer for your fantasy teams, he will need to win the starting role sooner rather than later. Luckily, the competition in front of him is not of the highest ability. Fortunately for Pickett, the talent surrounding him is.
SUPPORTING CAST/QUARTERBACK COMPETITION
The simple fact that beat reporters think Mason Rudolph is a more capable quarterback than Pickett (or Trubisky) should be brushed off as laughable propaganda. Rudolph has started in 11 games throughout his three-year career with the Steelers. He has eclipsed 300 yards passing only once and has never thrown for more than two touchdowns in a single game. Mitch Trubisky is the more likely early-season starter, despite the smoke and mirrors of the media. Trubisky showed promise in his early years with the Bears, albeit in an inconsistent and putrid offensive system schemed by the pustulant mind of the incompetent Matt Nagy.
The former Bills backup quarterback and Bears first-round pick has the best athletic profile of the three options and can operate effectively as a league-average quarterback. Whoever wins the starting job for the Steelers will have a wide array of effective weapons at their disposal. Najee Harris is coming off of an impressive rookie season that saw him finish as the RB3 Overall and RB6 in PPG (17.7). Harris was a product of a monstrous amount of volume, accumulating 307 rushing attempts while being peppered with targets (94) and catching 74 passes from the noodle arm of Ben Roethlisberger. Harris led the league in opportunity share at an 86.4% rate and should reprise his role as the Steelers’ workhorse in 2022. Harris’s ability to withstand a gigantic workload can mask a lot of inefficiencies at the quarterback position, as we saw with Roethlisberger last season.
Diontae Johnson is “holding in” amidst contract disputes with the organization but has reported to camp and participated in team drills while searching for an extension. Johnson’s want for a larger piece of the proverbial money pie is well warranted after the Steelers wideout put up career-best numbers alongside a declining Roethlisberger in his final season. Johnson earned 169 targets (2nd) with a 28.5% target share, proving his ability to stand alone as an alpha-level target hog. He buoyed that incredible opportunity share into 107 receptions for 1161 yards and eight touchdowns, finishing as the WR8 in PPG with 17.8 per. If Johnson plays without an extension in 2022, he is the likely favorite to repeat as the team’s number one receiving option.
Chase Claypool was disappointing in his second season, negatively regressing from his 13.4 PPG in 2021 to just 11.1 PPG in 2022. Claypool was a product of an extreme touchdown decline in his second season, scoring only twice as opposed to nine touchdowns in his rookie campaign. Claypool’s role as the number two is now in question with the addition of a promising young wideout during the 2022 NFL Draft.
George Pickens is a hungry fresh receiver who believes this is his offense to take over with Johnson’s contract situation in limbo and Claypool needing extra time to develop. Pickens’ 2022 DFF Draft Profile highlights an athletic, big-play maven with an alpha frame and all the necessary tools to become a game-changer at the NFL level. However, his profile also highlights his small collegiate sample size and history of injuries, as well as questionable decisions on the field. Pickens will be permitted to carve out a role for himself in this offense, but it will likely be limited with Johnson on the roster and less-than-ideal quarterback play in his rookie season.
Pat Freiermuth finished well above expectations in 2021, amassing 497 yards on 60 receptions with seven touchdowns. Freiermuth led all tight ends with 20 red zone targets in the NFL. He gives the Steelers’ quarterbacks a perfect security blanket over the middle of the field and inside the 20. He should continue to develop into a top asset at the position in his second season.
2022 OFFENSIVE OUTLOOK
Mike Tomlin enters his 14th year as the head coach for the Steelers in 2022. We have no history of quarterback replacement to point back on, as Tomlin coached Roethlisberger for all 14 years of his tenure with the team. However, looking at Tomlin’s coaching tendencies throughout the year, we know one thing for certain. The Steelers are going to pass the ball. For all the credit that Tomlin gets as a defensive-minded coach, he is as innovative on offense and has never coached a season with fewer than 56.4% of his offensive play calls resulting in a pass attempt. Tomlin is a master at gaining the most out of his quarterback pass attempts. Fewer coaches are better at blanketing dysfunction on offense with clever play calling and game management. The combination of coaching and talent puts Pickett in a prime situation to succeed in his rookie season. However, the Steelers may not share the same sentiment and will want to remain patient with his development.
Trubisky is on a cheap two-year contract, and the Steelers’ defense is more than capable of carrying them to another playoff berth. Another mediocre season and playoff appearance with Trubisky at the helm allows the Steelers to ensure higher draft capital in 2023 while developing their future franchise quarterback and maintaining a winning culture.
ADP REVIEW
*ADP Via SleeperHQ*
Positional Rank: QB22
Redraft PPR ADP: 242.3
Redraft Superflex ADP: 145.9
Dynasty PPR ADP: 149.7
Dynasty Superflex ADP: 89.2
DYNASTY MARKET EVALUATION
*Consensus Ranking Derived from KTC*
Positional Rank: QB21
Overall Rank: 98
Dynasty Value: 3729
Value Adjacent Assets:
- James Cook, RB, BUF
- George Pickens, WR, PIT
- Brandon Aiyuk, WR, SF
- Allen Robinson, WR, LAR
- Leonard Fournette, RB, TB
- JuJu Smith-Schuster WR, KC
VERDICT/FUTURE OUTLOOK
Expecting an extreme outlier of superstar production like the Bengals stud quarterback Joe Burrow is a ridiculous bet on Kenny Pickett. Although Pickett is likely more than a backup-level quarterback, his ceiling is more closely akin to a mid-range QB2 such as Derek Carr or Carson Wentz.
SIGNOFF
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
Check out my other works as an Author at Dynasty Football Factory.
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