Jacksonville Jaguars

Six Redraft Shares to Watch After Week 3

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Unless we’re analyzing workhorse running backs or alpha wide receivers, a player’s usage can fluctuate from week to week. Some will shine and some will ruin your week. Remember, targets and opportunities are earned. In this series, I will provide weekly target shares, rushing attempt shares, and snap shares of SIX players (or group of players) to help you understand the value of each of them and decide whether to start ‘em, roster ‘em, or trade ‘em.

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Backfield Breakdown: Reflections After Two Weeks of the NFL Season

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We are entering Week 3 of the NFL season, and so with two weeks of information, we are starting to see how the backfields of certain offenses are taking shape. This report looks at weighted opportunity (WOPP), as well as some other metrics to help you identify buys and sells for your running back room for Week 3 and beyond. I will revisit this article at several points of the season to help you get ready for a playoff push, and ultimately a run at the championship! What is WOPP? It is a metric that apportions value to a running back opportunity (either a carry or a target). Targets are worth approximately 2.74 times the value of a rush attempt in PPR scoring, and as such, they are more valuable. 

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Week 3 Streamers

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After a wild Week 2, it’s now time to focus on your third matchups of the season. Streaming options have been hard to predict thus far, but this is the week we will turn things around. Throughout this series, we will provide the best weekly options to stream at quarterback, tight end, and D/ST. Keep in mind, each streaming option will be below 50% owned, according to ESPN.

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Week 2 Streamers

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Week 1 is in the books. Whether you pulled a win in the first week of the season, or you’re determined to fix that losing record, you still have to think about streaming options for this week. Throughout this series, we will provide the best weekly options to stream at quarterback, tight end, and D/ST.  Keep in mind, each streaming option will be below 50% owned, according to ESPN. 

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IDP Rookie Sleepers

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There is no better feeling in fantasy football than calling your shot on a sleeper! Plucking a diamond out of the rough before anyone else realizes the value, is one of the reasons we dynasty managers dig so deep into weeds each offseason. Now that the 2021 season is nearly upon us, here are some rookie IDP sleepers that could become contributors to your IDP title run.

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Travis Etienne Injury Rapid Reaction

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The Jaguars offense has looked putrid over the first two games of the season as they battle through the learning curve of a new offensive system with a new head coach, a new quarterback, and a new running back, both drafted in the first round, thus setting the stage for some large expectations. However, their first-round running back, Travis Etienne may not even get to see the field this year after suffering a Lisfranc injury in Monday night’s game against the Saints.

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IDP Quick Thoughts: Joe Schobert Traded to Steelers

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Two days ago, the Jacksonville Jaguars sent stand-out linebacker Joe Schobert to the Pittsburgh Steelers in a move that further underscores the rebuild under Head Coach Urban Meyer’s new regime. News of the compensation trickled out a day later; just a 2022 sixth-round pick landed Schobert. Clearly, the move was a salary dump for the Jaguars.

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2021 Redraft: Paul’s Positional “My Guys”

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Ryan Tannehill is my absolute favorite “late-round” quarterback this season. On a PPG basis, Tannehill has finished as the QB9* in each of the past two seasons. He also ranks first in yards per attempt, second in passer rating, and ninth in passing TDs during that stretch. With a 28-game sample size in Tennessee, it’s fair to say that Tannehill has fully rebounded from his below-average seasons in Miami. He is now a high-quality NFL starting QB. He’s also a sneaky rusher who has added over 15 rushing yards per game and 11 total rushing TDs during his stint with the Titans. 

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Rookie Quarterback Mousetrap Revisited

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In 2020, Justin Herbert became the first rookie QB to throw for over 4,000 yards and 25 TDs. He broke the NFL rookie record for TD passes and completions, in fact. As a result, Keenan Allen put together a more impressive season than any WR in our sample. Still, digging a little deeper, Allen did leave some meat on the bone. He finished as the WR7 in PPG despite seeing the second-most targets per game. He recorded a career-low of 9.9 yards per reception, as well. These minor inefficiencies can likely be chalked up to the growing pains of a rookie QB.

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Chasing ‘Ships and Flipping Pieces: Part 2 – Franchise Value and Vision

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I specialize in the FFPC dynasty format, where there is a somewhat unique constraint that drives market action. You have to cut down to 16 players by the end of March, carrying just 20 in-season including a K and a DEF. That means that after the Super Bowl there is only about a month and a half to get deals done to get your roster trimmed down. Or you can risk cutting guys that have a lot of value. Most owners try to avoid that. This makes that particular trading period an absolute boon of market activity. There are lots of “one man’s junk is another man’s treasure” kind of deals. And there are lots of premiums paid for studs and there are lots of “cashing out dollars for three quarters” type of deals. 

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Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: AFC South

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Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series. This week’s coverage is all about the AFC South. This is the third division breakdown, and you can find the AFC East here and the NFC East here. Keep in mind, there will be a player whose stock is up and a player whose stock is down from each team in this division. Let’s dive right in. 

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Knee Deep in Muddy Backfields: The Jaguars

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James Robinson managers were shocked (maybe) in the draft when the Jaguars selected Travis Etienne in the first round with the 25th overall pick. This wasn’t out of the question going in, as the Jags had a lot of draft capital to throw around, but it was a bit surprising to me. James Robinson was more than serviceable in 2020, he was good. They also added veteran depth to the backfield during free agency in the form of Carlos Hyde.

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DFF Draft Coverage: Travis Etienne to the Jaguars

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Etienne has one of the safest floors at the running back position due to his receiving ability and speed. He’ll be a menace running outside and in the screen game, while being no slouch on the inside either. He may not end up as a goalline back, but he doesn’t need to be close to score. Running behind a worse offensive line in 2020 than 2019 after losing talent to the NFL draft, Etienne consistently showed the ability to make something out of nothing. Even if it’s just two yards, the little things add up when you can make a negative play into a positive. They added up enough for me to have him inch out Najee Harris as my RB1 in this class.

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DFF Draft Coverage: Trevor Lawrence To The Jaguars

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Trevor Lawrence took over as the starting quarterback for Clemson as a true freshman. That season concluded with Lawrence leading the Clemson Tigers to a National Championship. In his career, Lawrence completed 758 of 1,138 pass attempts, a 66.6% rate. He threw for 10.098 yards, 90 TDs, and just 17 INTs which equates to a 164.3 passer rating. Lawrence also added 943 rushing yards and 18 TDs on the ground. Just to remind the reader, college rushing stats include sacks and kneel-downs.

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No Reason to Worry for Second Year RBs

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After recent free agent signings, some have cooled on running backs entering their 2nd season. Jonathan Tayor, D’Andre Swift, and James Robinson have seen their value dip with the worry of a veteran backup coming in to take some of the workloads. I firmly believe there is nothing to worry about with these three backs, but I wanted to see if the numbers back me up. Here’s what I found.

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Best Fantasy Destinations for Will Fuller

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As the start of NFL free agency inches closer, now is an excellent time to explore some landing spots that could boost Will Fuller’s outlook. The speedy wideout will be entering his sixth season and is coming off a year cut short due to a six-game PED suspension after Week 12. Fuller was on pace for a monster season, posting career-highs in receptions, yards, and TDs to the tune of 53/879/8 in 11 games played. He was the WR8 in PPR scoring during that stretch. The suspension came at a crucial time in the fantasy season as those who owned him had to find a way to replace that production heading into the fantasy playoffs.

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New NFL Coaching Hires: Where The Dust Settled (Part 1)

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All seven of the vacant head coaching positions that were available in the NFL this offseason have been filled. In this piece, your author is giving a rapid reaction to each hire, along with some brief fantasy football implications. Understand that these are the analyses and opinions of your author, based on the knowledge and information he possesses. The NFL is a dynamic league, and turnover at the head coach and GM positions not only occur each year but also keeps interest in NFL franchises fresh and relevant. The complete slate of additions will be covered in two articles, the first three breakdowns are here. Overall, the decisions made were underwhelming but interesting. Some teams made strong hires, some underwhelming hires, and some were true boom or bust hires. Now it’s time to dive in, in no particular order, and unpack the new coaching hires… 

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2021 NFL Draft Preview: Team Needs Picks 1 – 5

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As I look at mock drafts, my eyes naturally gravitate towards fantasy-relevant players which led to the idea for this series. I decided to attack the needs of each team from top to bottom. This is the first article and covers the teams picking in the top five of the NFL Draft. Obviously, free-agency acquisitions will make a major difference as to who teams will draft. These predictions and needs will therefore change as we acquire more information. However, many are of the thinking that it’s better to supplement with free-agency and build through the draft. Teams want to get young assets and have them develop cohesion with the team. Therefore, the draft is often more predictive of a team’s long-term confidence in a player.  

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