Not Just some JAG
The Jaguars offense has looked putrid over the first two games of the season as they battle through the learning curve of a new offensive system with a new head coach, a new quarterback, and a new running back, both drafted in the first round, thus setting the stage for some large expectations. However, their first-round running back, Travis Etienne may not even get to see the field this year after suffering a Lisfranc injury in Monday night’s game against the Saints:
This injury is brutal for fantasy owners in all league types as far as the 2021 season outlook is concerned. In the report above, Ian Rapoport mentions the potential for a 12-week recovery after surgery, however, given how close we are to the regular season, I don’t think we’ll be seeing him this year.
REDRAFT/BESTBALL IMPACT
There’s no good way of looking at this for Redraft and BestBall leagues. Etienne, who was DFF’s RB19 and my RB21. Etienne is now undraftable and will be off my board completely.
Knock knock knock….what’s that? That right there is James Robinson who was mostly written off after the draft (and rightfully so) is now back to being the lone man in the Jaguars backfield. DFF’s former RB30 and my RB28 will be shooting up the rankings when we update them tonight! This is the only Redraft and BestBall update of consequence. Last year’s PPR RB7 should get right back to seeing last year’s opportunity which included 240 rushing attempts and 60 targets in 14 games. Referencing Kanye Rob’s 2020 article (click HERE to read) on draft capital and its correlation to fantasy finishes, it’s pretty rare for a running back to finish as an RB1 multiple times in their career. When you look even closer at the UDFA running backs to do so, there have only been two over the last 20 years; Arian Foster and Priest Holmes.
Robinson should not have even been close to having the opportunity to finish as an RB1 more than once after the confusing selection of Etienne by the Jags in the first round, but now we’re back with nothing stopping him from having the opportunity to achieve that feat. There will be some pains this year with a new coach and quarterback, however, if Robinson can do it in 14 games with Gardner Minshew and Mike Glennon, he can certainly do it with Trevor Lawrence. He has moved up my board to RB19, which may seem low, but after two preseason games, I have had some stomach issues watching that Jaguars offensive line try to block anyone so I will err on the safer side with his ranking.
The only other potential impact this might have is for WR Laviska Shenault who should now see more touches out of the backfield as he now picks back up his gadget role for the Jaguars.
DYNASTY IMPACT
For Dynasty leagues, there are two big decisions to be made now:
1) Sell James Robinson high?
2) Buy Travis Etienne low?
James Robinson owners have had a hell of an offseason after the whirlwind draft and now injury to Etienne. I don’t think I’ve seen someone’s value change so much within one offseason. I just traded away my only share of James Robinson for Laviska Shenault on a team in which I had Travis Etienne and also believed that I wasn’t a true contender. I don’t want to gamble on Robinson beating the odds to repeat as an RB1 after being a UDFA regardless of the narrative that can be built. I would much rather insulate my team’s future by trading for a young receiver that has an opportunity to increase in value or at least maintain value over the next two to three years.
Buying Etienne low might be difficult, but if there’s a time to strike, it’s now. I’ve already seen one trade occur with Etienne where an owner sent away a 2023 first-round pick for him in a 14 team SFTEP league. I’m no doctor so I’m not entirely sure of the long-term consequences of this injury and impending surgery. DFF’s resident PT Zach Pavlichek (@ZachPav42) should be coming out with a more in-depth article on the ramifications this week. At this moment in time, a 2023 1st isn’t what I’d be accepting for Travis Etienne given the fact that he may still have the opportunity to show what he can do on the football field by year’s end. I still believe in the talent, so reach out to owners for an asking price and keep an eye out for Zach’s article this week so you can feel comfortable about trading away future pieces.
What do you think of the Travis Etienne injury? Hit me up @DFF_JoeMem on Twitter to let me know! And be sure to sign up for the DFF monthly subscription so you can have access to my Redraft Rankings and be one step ahead of the competition!
