Houston Texans

Sleeper Series: Randall Cobb

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After writing my redraft team breakdown series, I decided to start a new series as we approach the 2020 fantasy season. Every week, or probably more often than that, I’m going to bring you one fantasy sleeper representing a massive value in 2020 redraft leagues. All the links to previous articles are at the bottom of the article. In the first article, I detailed my methodology behind this series, so go back and read that piece if you haven’t yet! Today, it’s time to look at an old and crusty veteran who might still provide some fantasy value in 2020: Randall Cobb. I’ve recently risen on Cobb as a potential deep option. Let’s get into why I’m starting to come around.

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Risers and Fallers: Part 2

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As we approach the redraft season, I want to begin a new series of recent risers and fallers based on events happening in the fantasy football world. In each article, I’ll give you two risers and two fallers. There are many reasons that a player could move up or move down, so I’ll cover various situations throughout this article series.

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Redraft Best Ball Primer

#TomBomb: Houston Texans

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Any individual who is only able to participate in 66% of their team’s contests, across a four-year-span, is normally one I believe I’d try to steer clear of when assembling my roster. However, with the departure of DeAndre Hopkins and his 150 targets, Old Tom is fully on board with any and all Will Fuller hype. For clarification, I’m not about to wager the farm for this stance but I’d contemplate the chicken coop. The positive here, though, is that I’d venture to say most Fuller-owners don’t feel as strongly about #15 as Old Tom. Can you say discount? If the reports out of the Texans’ camp are true, and Fuller has added both muscle and speed, I’m just not sure I can start to fathom what his upside becomes in 2020 and beyond. 

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Redraft Best Ball Primer

DFF Dynasty Daredevil

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In this article, it’s time to look at the dynasty dynamite canisters. These are the guys that can explode in value or blow up and become nothing. I expect each of these players to do exactly that by the end of 2020. There’s no in-between, as I don’t foresee a mediocre outcome. Most of these players are on their “last chance” for dynasty owners. But, each has the upside to be a top asset.

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The 2020 All-Uglies

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Everyone wants the hot new thing. As kids, we all wanted the brand new toy for Christmas and turned our noses up at the pairs of socks we sometimes got instead. Now that we are adults we want the cool new sports car instead of the pre-owned Honda. It’s the same in fantasy football. Everybody wants to be the guy who drafts the young running back who vaults himself into the first round next year. We all target those third-year wide receivers looking for that elusive breakout. But you know what? Those socks are a good present. They get the job done and you use them all the time. That pre-owned Honda is reliable and doesn’t cost an arm and a leg to maintain. You can find similar values every year in fantasy football. No one in your draft room will let out a sigh of relief when you take one of these guys, but they’ll get the job done for you. These are the used cars and Christmas socks of the 2020 fantasy season. I present to you 2020 All-Uglies.

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Kahale Warring: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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Warring fits the specifications of a fantasy football “sleeper” candidate like a glove. He has the willingness and competitiveness to handle run-blocking duties, and the talent to line up in the slot. Versatility is valuable in the NFL. If Warring wins the primary TE job for the Texans, he should be capable of staying on the field for the majority of the snaps. Having just turned 23 this offseason, any role Kahale carves out this coming season should be maintained, with the potential for growth into more opportunities, provided he stays healthy. He can be acquired late in drafts or for very minimal assets via trade in most dynasty leagues, and may even be available on waivers in a few.

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What If? A Jamal Adams Trade Story

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Jamal Adams deserves to get paid. Is he worth the $20 million-plus a year he’s rumored to be seeking though? Today’s top-paid safeties don’t even make $15 million a year. The Jets say they want to make Adams a Jet for life, but they don’t seem motivated to sign Adams to any long term deals and why would they. From a business standpoint, it doesn’t make sense for the team. They still have him on contract, for much less, for the next two years. This has led to a lot of friction between the sides though and Adams has asked for a trade. His seven preferred destinations were the Ravens, Eagles, Cowboy, 49ers, Texans, Chiefs, and the Seahawks.  Some of these teams seem a little more feasible than others to me.

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A Redraft Journey: DeAndre Hopkins

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In April, I started writing a series focusing on one player at a time, called “A Redraft Journey.” Like my “Dead to Me” series, I take a deep dive into a single player, breaking down their entire career in redraft fantasy football. However, unlike that series, this set of articles is meant to be more positively toned. The links to the full set of previous entries are at the bottom of this article. It’s time to jump into DeAndre Hopkins, one of the best wide receivers in fantasy football over the past few years. But what has he truly brought to fantasy owners? There’s only one way to find out.

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David Njoku: A Goliath Rebirth?

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Cleveland Browns tight end David Njoku has requested a trade from the Cleveland Browns via his agent, Drew Rosenhaus. The veteran sports agent and notorious bare-knuckles negotiator has almost certainly taken public a request made to the team shortly after another former first-rounder from the same position, Hayden Hurst demanded a trade from the Ravens to the Falcons earlier this year. Poetically and characteristically, Rosenhaus aired his demand for his client’s freedom from the league’s most unstable franchise on the eve of Independence Day. Timing is also of the essence because training camps open in a mere three weeks’ time.

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Dynasty WR Buys: Mid Range Part 3

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I’m back to the dynasty side of writing with a series on veteran dynasty buys at the wide receiver position. I started off looking at three buy-high receivers. Then, I moved into the mid-range of dynasty value, beginning with a detailed dive into Tyler Boyd and Michael Gallup. As I referenced in that piece, I believe that the mid-range of dynasty WRs is a value goldmine with so many undervalued players in that group. It’s such a deep and wonderful group that I needed to discuss two further players, Jarvis Landry and Christian Kirk. Now, I want to go into two more players in Brandin Cooks and N’Keal Harry. This area of dynasty drafts and value is the best way to exploit the current dynasty market. I’m currently recommending the strategy of grabbing early running backs in dynasty startups since there’s so much wide receiver value later on. On that note, I have two more mid-range players that are also excellent dynasty buys. Let’s jump into them! Brandin Cooks Brandin Cooks has a track record of fantasy success. Until 2019, he was a top fantasy receiver, providing constant value for his dynasty owners. Even though Cooks has bounced around teams, he’s found success everywhere he’s gone. Here’s his career snapshot.  Year  Games   Targets   Receptions   Yards   TDs   Fantasy Finish   Fantasy PPG   2014   10  69  53  550  3  WR56  13.9  2015  16  129  84  1,138  9  WR13  15.9  2016  16  117  78  1,173  8  WR10  15.4  2017  16  114  65  1,082  7   WR15  13.8  2018  16  117  80  1,204  5  WR13  15.2

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2020 Poor IDP Strength of Schedule

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In this series, we analyze the IDP strength-of-schedule for the 2020 NFL season. In IDP fantasy football, fewer opportunities correlate to reduced chances of production and underperforming IDP assets. Today, we’ll focus on low pace-of-play / plays-per-game schedules that a few unlucky defenses will face (based on 2019 data). Let’s take a look at the defenses and IDP defenders who could suffer from their schedule.

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Brandin Cooks: A Must-Own in 2020

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As you can see, Cooks has been a highly productive receiver with every stop. It doesn’t matter if he was new to the roster or not. He hasn’t always been the most targeted receiver on his team. Only twice has this happened in his career. Once with the Saints in 2015 and once with the Patriots in 2017– yet he’s still put up four 1,000-yard seasons. 

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Redraft Team Focus: Houston Texans

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I’ll split up the fantasy assets into three categories: high-end assets, usable contributors, and dart throws. I’ll reference my PPR redraft rankings at the time of writing, which are here. If you want to read my previous work in this series, the full list with links is at the bottom of the article. Let’s jump into the Texans.

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Dead to Me: Redraft

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Have you ever had that feeling of frustration that you can’t shake? These two players make me feel that way. I will never deal with these players again in redraft formats. They’ve both burned me multiple times, and I want no part of them in 2020. I’m not saying that these players are worthless, but I will look for any way to pick someone else in redraft. All ranks are for a PPR format.

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Texans Offense: Gaping Holes and Glaring Opportunity

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Without a doubt, the most surprising, perplexing and possibly season altering move was the Texans sending DeAndre Hopkins and a 2020 4th round pick to Arizona for David Johnson, a 2020 2nd round pick and a 4th round pick in 2021. The Texans also agreed to take on all of DJ’s bloated salary, which isn’t much less than Hopkins’. 

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Schemes Are Ch-Ch-Changing: Part 2

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Anticipating and acting on scheme change is a risk/reward proposition in fantasy football. Correctly anticipating an edge defender’s new role in a defense can deliver a difference-maker at the most valuable IDP position. There, I said it! The value above replacement for a high-end DE is greater than that for linebackers through much of the spectrum of IDP scoring formats. Meanwhile, an edge defender changed to OLB is all but negated as an IDP asset in most formats. Your writer did not lightly recommend DE Myles Garrett as an IDP buy in Part 1 of this series of articles on defensive scheme change. The Browns’ incoming defensive coordinator Joe Woods led a 3-4 defense in Denver in 2018. Part 1 explains why I would not discount Garrett’s fantasy value based on that risk. The risk that Garrett plays OLB in 2020 is not zero, however. Upon arriving in New York last winter, Gregg Williams told reporters he would not change the Jets’ 3-4 base defense to a 4-3. Then he did. Two teams that did NOT undergo changes in defensive coaches DID change from 4-3 to 3-4: the Panthers and Falcons. Yes, both teams changed back late in the 2019 season, but the initial change highlights the incalculable risk to players as IDP assets in fantasy leagues that don’t use true positions (IDL, EDGE, LB). The hedge against this risk is to anticipate scheme changes before they are implemented, observed, and understood. The best way to do this is to keep apprised of coaching changes and those coaches’ histories and

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