In this series, we analyze the IDP strength-of-schedule for the 2020 NFL season. In IDP fantasy football, fewer opportunities correlate to reduced chances of production and underperforming IDP assets. Today, we’ll focus on low pace-of-play / plays-per-game schedules that a few unlucky defenses will face (based on 2019 data). Let’s take a look at the defenses and IDP defenders who could suffer from their schedule.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
The Colts have the least favorable 2020 IDP strength-of-schedule. Their defense will go up against four low pace offenses next season, including Tennessee twice, Minnesota, and the New York Jets offenses. The only high octane offense they face is Baltimore, which will likely run the ball all game. To put a nail in the coffin, Indianapolis leadership spent a 2nd round pick on a top running back of the 2020 class in Jonathan Taylor, who could transform Indianapolis to a grind-the-clock offense. Darius Leonard will inevitably be a top producer regardless of schedule, but players like DeForest Buckner, Rock Ya-Sin, and Khari Willis may need to be downgraded slightly.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
This one may seem counterintuitive since the Dolphins’ offense isn’t expected to be strong, but with a six-game schedule against Brady-less New England, Buffalo and the New York Jets, Miami’s defense may not spend much time on the field in 2020. Additionally, with Tua expected to take over at QB, Miami may rely on the run more than usual next season. Starters like Christian Wilkins, Raekwon McMillan, and Xavien Howard could see fewer snaps to create plays next year.
CHICAGO BEARS
The Bears defenders start the season with a few strong offenses, including Atlanta and Tampa Bay, however, their 2020 playoff schedule is the least favorable in the NFL. In weeks 13 through 16, Chicago hosts Green Bay and Detroit in cold weather, then travels to Minnesota and Jacksonville to finish the fantasy season. All four games could be low paced, run-first contests. Be careful when starting Khalil Mack, Danny Trevathan, and Eddie Jackson late in 2020.
HOUSTON TEXANS
Houston has an interesting 2020 IDP schedule ahead, with teams like Minnesota, Tennessee, Chicago and Indianapolis twice on the docket. All of the aforementioned matchups could lead to Houston’s defense seeing fewer snaps than in years past. Also, Houston traded all-world receiver DeAndre Hopkins for David Johnson, hinting at more of a run-centric season for the Texans. Consider this information when modeling Houston studs like J.J. Watt, Zach Cunningham, and Justin Reid.
BUFFALO BILLS
The Bills defense gets to play the AFC East, which has little firepower compared to other divisions. Additionally, the type of offense Josh Allen leads makes it highly likely that the Bills IDP stars will have fewer opportunities to produce relative to the rest of the NFL. Guys like Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, Tremaine Edmunds, and Matt Milano may not live up to expectations in 2020.
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