Cleveland Browns tight end David Njoku has requested a trade from the Cleveland Browns via his agent, Drew Rosenhaus. The veteran sports agent and notorious bare-knuckles negotiator has almost certainly taken public a request made to the team shortly after another former first-rounder from the same position, Hayden Hurst demanded a trade from the Ravens to the Falcons earlier this year. Poetically and characteristically, Rosenhaus aired his demand for his client’s freedom from the league’s most unstable franchise on the eve of Independence Day. Timing is also of the essence because training camps open in a mere three weeks’ time.
David Njoku’s Career to Date
The Browns drafted the 23-year-old tight end from Miami (Fla.) three head coaches ago. David Njoku came into the league as a functional in-line blocker with enormous upside as a pass-catcher in 2017. At such a young age, his body and his game needed time to develop.
David Njoku’s career started promisingly in 2017. He caught 32 balls for 386 yards and four touchdowns, playing serviceably in his age-21 season, even while the Browns lost every game. He was used sparingly as a blocker but featured in a downfield receiving role (10.84 ADOT).
At 22, Njoku ascended to a full-time role for the Browns. While his production increased to 56 receptions for 639 yards and four touchdowns, performance results were mixed. Most notably, he struggled with drops (8). He landed in the proverbial doghouse (of which one beat writer named him “king”) of Freddie Kitchens in his third season. The first-time head coach, who was clearly not ready for the leadership position, made Njoku a healthy scratch late in the season even after he rushed back from a wrist injury that cost him most of 2019.
Approaching his age 24 season, David Njoku has not yet consistently shown the elite upside that made him the 29th pick of the 2017 NFL draft. Neither has he belied NFL.com draft analyst Lance Zierlein’s comparison of him to Greg Olsen. Olsen himself struggled to emerge in the NFL due to team circumstances in Chicago.
Njoku’s Crossroads
Value in fantasy football arises from the intersection of talent, situation, and opportunity. If Drew Rosenhaus’s trade demand is successful, where could David Njoku land that would enable him to take the next step as both, a successful NFL tight end and the elite fantasy asset many of us hoped we’d drafted in our fake leagues?
To answer these questions, we must assess team situations around the league, which seem set as training camp approaches. NFL teams typically deploy either a full-time tight end as a blocker, outlet, and downfield target. Those without a quality full-time option meet these needs with a platoon.
To better understand these dynamics, let’s start with Njoku’s current team, the Browns. New head coach Kevin Stefanski comes to Cleveland after deploying two tight ends with minimal downfield receiving roles in Minnesota. Starter Kyle Rudolph’s average depth of target (ADOT) in 2019 was below 9 yards according to Pro Football Focus. Irv Smith, Jr., the Vikings’ second tight had an ADOT closer to 6. Rudolph blocked more often than he ran routes in 2019, while Irv Smith worked as an outlet valve.
The Browns signed former Falcon Austin Hooper to a lucrative free-agent contract to fill the Rudolph starting role. Njoku appears set to fill the second tight-end role a la Irv Smith. (Your author delved into these roles and their implications for fantasy football on the heels of Hooper’s arrival in Cleveland.) Njoku has the athletic ability to succeed in the same way that George Kittle and Jonnu Smith excelled as receivers in 2019 – as YAC monsters.
Kent Lee Platte (@mathbomb on Twitter) reports Njoku’s “relative athletic score” similar to those for his counterparts in the run-heavy offenses of the 49ers and Titans. The Browns’ play-calling seems likely to skew run-heavy as well, with stud running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt vying for opportunities.
The key to David Njoku earning more snaps is to succeed first as a blocker. Secondarily then, he must earn yards after the catch – a hard way to make a living for a tight end in the NFL. To this point in his career, he has been a downfield receiver first. His demand for a trade may very well arise from a desire to develop as a downfield target, a role that has earned Greg Olsen and Austin Hooper big paydays.
Njoku’s Options
New England Patriots
Don’t you hate it when any interesting player presumably on the market is linked to the Patriots? In this case, it makes a lot of sense. The Patriots’ depth chart at tight end – Matt LaCosse, Ryan Izzo, and a couple puzzling third-round rookies – appears a long way from approaching the production of their 2018 predecessor. Perhaps you’ve heard of him?
https://twitter.com/OnlyInBOS/status/1260917785925840900?s=20It would be inappropriate to claim Njoku had as much upside as Rob Gronkowski, but he’s quite a bit closer than anyone currently on the roster. QB Cam Newton badly needs weapons to make the 2020 Patriots offense go, and Njoku, the Olsen comp, makes a ton of sense. Yes, the Patriots would need to perform some salary-cap gymnastics right now, but they have ample room for Njoku’s fifth-year option in 2020.
Washington TBDs
The burgundy and gold gave real money to a failed quarterback-turned-tight-end who couldn’t stick with the Bills and Lions. David Njoku would be an instant upgrade from Logan Thomas. He’d present a target that young Dwayne Haskins desperately needs to develop into a competent NFL quarterback.
New offensive coordinator, Scott Turner had the opportunity to work with Greg Olsen in Carolina, a player who could not only block proficiently but also work downfield as well as any wide receiver on the team. Njoku would present game-planning options to Turner that he can only dream of now, given the dearth of talented pass catchers in Washington.
Houston Texans
The Texans recently extended 34-year-old Darren Fells, a competent blocker and check-down target for QB DeShaun Watson. 28-year-old Jordan Akins occupies the downfield receiving role. His competition includes black-box prospects, Jordan Thomas and Kahale Warring. The Texans were linked to eventual Bears second-round pick Cole Kmet before the NFL draft and are a win-now window. Njoku represents an upgrade to this group and could help the team reallocate a roster spot by eliminating the need for tight ends named Jordan.
Indianapolis Colts
Head coach Frank Reich and quarterback Phillip Rivers undoubtedly rue a 2020 season without a plus target at tight end like Antonio Gates or Hunter Henry. These oversized receivers have been key to what this offense does for years. GM Chris Ballard threw a dart at Bears reject Trey Burton in free agency to scratch Reich’s itch, but Njoku represents a more serious option opposite Jack Doyle in the outlet role.
Green Bay Packers
Draft analysts and fans alike have excoriated the Packers’ neglect of pass-catchers in the 2020 NFL draft. They’ve also ignored head coach Matt LaFleur’s stated intentions to reorient his offense around running backs. To that end, the team used a second-round pick on AJ Dillon to pair with Aaron Jones, a tandem reminiscent of the Titans’ Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry, a duo that LaFleur directed as Tennessee’s offensive coordinator in 2018.
The 2018 Tennesee Titans tell us relatively little about LaFleur’s intentions for the tight-end position in his offense due to his hodgepodge of options at the position. Delanie Walker was in injury-induced decline, and the Titans’ remaining options included Day-3 draft picks and free agents.
In 2019, 33-year-old Jimmy Graham produced modest numbers for the Packers in a downfield role and was allowed to depart for division-rival Chicago in free agency. Graham’s ADOT was among the highest in the league for a tight end, suggesting a role tailor-made for David Njoku.
36-year-old Marcedes Lewis holds down the blocker/outlet role among tight ends in Green Bay, proving just how important Aaron Rodgers’s trust is to a job there. 2019 third-rounder Jace Sternberger appears poised for an important role in the offense. Is he ready? Would a team coming off a 13-3 season value the more experienced Njoku as an upgrade? He’s the same age as Sternberger. Will the apparent need for another dynamic pass-catcher translate into a busy role for a downfield tight end? The upside could be enormous.
Fantasy Implications
The five teams above provide David Njoku a clear path to a top-20 finish with a much higher upside among fantasy tight ends. He’d be an interesting late-round pick worth considering ahead of Ian Thomas, Noah Fant, and other young players at the position who have yet to clearly establish themselves as reliable options at the position.
A number of other teams might do well to bring in the youngster as a developmental prospect. He’s set to earn $3 million this year and an unguaranteed $6 million in 2021. Njoku would hold dynasty value in light tight-end rooms like those of the Cardinals, Panthers, or Dolphins or behind aging veterans in Seattle (Greg Olsen), Chicago (Jimmy Graham), or Jacksonville (Tyler Eifert).
David Njoku hasn’t done enough in his career to hold his original value of a first-round rookie pick in dynasty fantasy football leagues but landing with one of the five highlighted teams should ensure him second-round value. A dynasty gamer looking to acquire him might offer the pick plus a low-ceiling tight end like Doyle or a short-lived asset like Olsen. Your author wouldn’t hesitate to deal Hooper for Njoku straight up into the news of a trade into a plus landing spot.
The compensation a team gives up for him should also advise us. If the Browns can recoup no more than a late pick for Njoku (rounds 5-7) while dealing him to a murky situation, then fantasy gamers would be wise to assign no more than third-round fantasy value to him.
Hayden Hurst’s fantasy value has rebounded in no small part because the Falcons dealt a second-round pick to the Ravens for him. This investment by the NFL team virtually ensures a significant role in the offense for Hurst, who lands in a barren position group in Atlanta.
David Njoku’s trade request and destination are worthy of our attention in this silly season of the NFL calendar. The situation could earn our fantasy rosters a serious infusion of value at a most opportune time!
Clemson and Michigan alum…Panthers and Cowboys fan…I try to see both sides of every debate and each trade. Find me on Twitter @DynastyTripp.
