Dead to Me: Redraft

Have you ever had that feeling of frustration that you can’t shake? These two players make me feel that way. I will never deal with these players again in redraft formats. They’ve both burned me multiple times, and I want no part of them in 2020. I’m not saying that these players are worthless, but I will look for any way to pick someone else in redraft. All ranks are for a PPR format.

David Johnson (RB – HOU)

Let’s take a quick snapshot of the five-year fantasy career of David Johnson.

In 2015 and 2016, Johnson burst onto the scene breaking out as a rookie and then finishing as the RB1 by a mile in 2016. Coming into 2017, Johnson was the locked-in #1 overall fantasy asset and went first overall in most fantasy drafts. Midway through the first game in 2017, Johnson suffered a wrist injury. While the injury seemed to be serious, nobody expected Johnson to miss the entire season. However, that’s precisely what happened, and Johnson never played again in 2017.

Moving forward to 2018, most fantasy owners forgave Johnson and locked him in as a top-4 running back. While some preferred Todd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell, or Ezekiel Elliott, Johnson never fell past the fourth selection in drafts. Once again, Johnson badly burned fantasy owners in 2018. He finished as the RB9, but even that finish is kind to Johnson. He was only 11th in fantasy points per game and scored 11.2 points per game less than Gurley. Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, and Christian McCaffrey all outscored Johnson by over eight points per game despite all going later than Johnson in drafts. Picking Johnson didn’t completely sink your fantasy team, but it’s hard to imagine having won a title after using your first-rounder on Johnson in 2018.

For some reason, we all gave Johnson yet another chance in 2019. The Cardinals had drafted Kyler Murray with the first overall pick and installed a new, high-flying offense under Kliff Kingsbury. These moves brought a renewed interest in Johnson for the 2019 redraft season. After the top four running backs, Barkley, McCaffrey, Kamara, and Elliott, Johnson was the consensus RB5. He went in the first round in almost every draft, ranging from fifth to eighth overall in ADP.

Throughout the first six weeks, Johnson was the RB5 in fantasy in both total points and points per game, despite suffering a back injury in Week 5. Unfortunately, in Week 6, the wheels completely came off for Johnson. In addition to that back injury, Johnson suffered an ankle in the Week 6 contest. Infamously, Kingsbury insisted that Johnson was good-to-go for Week 7 but then gave Johnson just one carry, while backup Chase Edmonds took the workhorse role. Johnson then missed Week’s 8 and 9, and the Cardinals traded for Kenyan Drake.

Even though Johnson returned in Week 10, he never regained his starting job. In the final seven games, Johnson totaled just 17 carries and six receptions. In contrast, Drake had 108 carries and 31 receptions in that same period. Johnson looked completely washed-up when he saw the field down the stretch, especially when compared to Drake. After the season, the Cardinals decided to move forward with Drake as their starting running back and traded Johnson to the Texans.

Given all of the past issues with Johnson, I have no interest in drafting him in 2020. Even though he went to the Texans and now plays in a Deshaun Watson-led offense, I think he has nothing left. I predict that he will once again fail to return value as fantasy owners will overdraft him. I think he’ll go as a high-end RB2 in fantasy drafts, and he’s probably the biggest landmine I want to avoid in 2020. 

Evan Engram (TE – NYG)

While nobody has burned fantasy owners as much as Johnson, Engram has come pretty close over the previous two seasons. However, Engram started his career on a high note. In 2017, as a rookie, he defied all expectations. The Giants lost top receivers Odell Beckham, Jr. and Brandon Marshall for the majority of the season, and Sterling Shepard also missed five games. Engram stepped into the void and became the Giants’ number one target. He caught 64 passes for 722 yards and six touchdowns on 115 targets, leading the team in targets, receptions, and receiving touchdowns. He finished as the TE5 and fourth in fantasy points per game among tight ends.

Even though Engram’s rookie season was highly unusual for a rookie tight end, it came with some significant warning signs. He only caught 55.7% of his targets and averaged just 6.3 yards per target, pretty dismal for a receiving threat. Therefore, Engram’s success was mostly due to volume and most expected him to regress once Beckham returned from injury in 2018.

Engram’s 2018 season was quite interesting. He became efficient, raising his catch percentage to 70.3% and his yards per target to 9.02. However, his volume significantly declined. He had just 64 targets in 11 games, dropping from 7.67 targets per game in 2017 to 5.82 in 2018. Since he became more efficient on decreased volume, his fantasy points per game only dropped from 11.6 to 11.3 points per game. He still was the seventh-best tight end in terms of per-game scoring in 2018.

Unfortunately, Engram started to struggle with injuries in 2018. First, he missed Weeks 4-6 with an MCL injury. While that injury wouldn’t be a concern on its own, it seemed to start a trend of concerning small injuries for Engram. In Week 12, Engram suffered a mysterious hamstring injury during pre-game warm-ups, missing that game and the next. Overall, Engram missed five games in 2018, which hurt fantasy owners who had drafted Engram as a top-five tight end. He might have paid off in terms of points per game, but his injuries led to a TE13 overall finish. 

Coming into 2019, Engram projected as the Giants’ number one target after Beckham’s trade to the Browns. However, Engram started camp with another hamstring injury. He missed significant portions of training camp with this injury but was healthy in time for the regular season. Again, most fantasy owners picked Engram as a top-five tight end because of his upside. Engram delivered in the games he did play. He increased his fantasy points per game up to 13.7, two full points higher than his previous best. There was a slight concern that his biggest game came in Week 1 with Eli Manning as the quarterback, but Engram still performed well with Daniel Jones.

Unfortunately for Engram, the wheels started to come off in Week 6. He missed the game with another MCL injury but was able to return in Week 7. Then, in Week 9, Engram suffered a foot injury. While the injury was initially considered minor, Engram never returned. He required offseason Lisfranc surgery and still hasn’t fully recovered. His lengthy absence torched fantasy owners, who were once again left holding the bag due to Engram’s missed games. Additionally, since Engram claimed he would return from the injury quickly, most owners held him on their rosters, taking up valuable roster space.

Going into 2020, there have been rumblings from the Giants that they believe that Engram will never be able to stay healthy and that Engram could be available for trade. While I don’t think the Giants will trade Engram, I do believe that they will no longer count on him as the centerpiece of their passing game. 2019 rookie Darius Slayton emerged as a legitimate threat, and I think the Giants will center the 2020 passing offense around Slayton, Shepard, and star running back Saquon Barkley. They also have Golden Tate to play the slot, who excels in a similar area of the field to Engram. I will be passing on Engram in redraft formats, as I have no use for an oft-injured tight end recovering from a severe foot injury who isn’t guaranteed heavy volume. I expect that Engram will still go in drafts as a mid-TE1, a price that is far too rich for me.

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Justin. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.