A Redraft Journey: DeAndre Hopkins

In April, I started writing a series focusing on one player at a time, called “A Redraft Journey.” Like my “Dead to Me” series, I take a deep dive into a single player, breaking down their entire career in redraft fantasy football. However, unlike that series, this set of articles is meant to be more positively toned. The links to the full set of previous entries are at the bottom of this article. 

It’s time to jump into DeAndre Hopkins, one of the best wide receivers in fantasy football over the past few years. But what has he truly brought to fantasy owners? There’s only one way to find out.

Total NFL Stats

2013: Rookie Year

The Texans drafted Hopkins with the 27th overall pick in the first round of the 2013 NFL Draft. Hopkins came to the NFL out of Clemson and enjoyed a successful college career. He was the second wide receiver taken after Tavon Austin, and he immediately became one of the Texans’ starters.

As a rookie, Hopkins played a complementary role opposite longtime star Andre Johnson. For a rookie, Hopkins performed well, although he paled in comparison to Johnson. Johnson had 109 receptions for 1,407 yards and five touchdowns, finishing as the WR10. Even though Hopkins made little to no redraft impact, he showed promise. Therefore, even though Hopkins didn’t find his way into many redraft lineups in 2013, he caught the attention of fantasy owners going into his second year.

2014-2015: Stardom

In 2014, Hopkins made the jump to fantasy stardom. Interestingly, Hopkins managed to do that despite getting fewer targets and receptions than Johnson. Even though Johnson had 19 more targets and nine more receptions, Hopkins had almost 300 more yards and three more touchdowns. Therefore, Hopkins finished with 1.7 more fantasy PPG and as the WR14, compared to Johnson’s WR29 finish.

Even though Hopkins didn’t get a monster number of targets in 2014, he proved that he was a true alpha receiver in the NFL. With Hopkins’ youth and raw talent, the Texans decided to move on from Johnson after the 2014 season. While they brought in other receivers, like Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts, there was no question that Hopkins was the top talent on the team by miles. Therefore, fantasy drafters saw Hopkins as a WR1 going into 2015, although they didn’t foresee what happened.

In 2015, Hopkins had his first monster season. He finished with 192 targets, more than double the next-highest on the Texans. Despite playing with a terrible group of quarterbacks in Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, T.J. Yates, and Brandon Weeden, Hopkins flourished. He had the third-most targets and receptions in the NFL, behind only Antonio Brown and Julio Jones.

Even though Hopkins’ efficiency numbers dropped, his volume made up for it. He hit a career-low in yards/target at 7.9 and only caught 57.8% of his targets. Hopkins also fell significantly to 13.7 yards/reception, by far the lowest mark in his career. However, as efficiency generally decreases with massive increases in volume, I didn’t find these numbers to be particularly concerning.

Hopkins proved both that he was a true alpha wide receiver and could succeed even with poor quarterback play. Given that he did so much at only 23 years old, Hopkins was the top wide receiver in fantasy going into 2016. Nobody else projected for the same type of volume and had the same potential to improve even further as a receiver.

2016: Blip on the Radar

For the 2016 season, the Texans overhauled their offense. They drafted speedy wide receiver Will Fuller in the first round and acquired Brock Osweiler as their new starting quarterback. Hopkins was a clear first-round pick in 2016 redraft leagues, competing for the top fantasy receiver with Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr., and A.J. Green.

Unfortunately, unlike 2015, Hopkins couldn’t overcome terrible quarterback play in 2016. Osweiler was so bad that he took Hopkins and the entire Texans’ offense down with him. He completed a miserable 59.0% of his passes, and he threw only 15 touchdowns versus 16 interceptions. To add to those poor numbers, Osweiler only managed 5.8 yards/attempt, one of the worst recent marks for a quarterback.

While Hopkins still had massive volume, he didn’t put up good fantasy numbers. He declined to 6.3 yards/target and 12.2 yards/reception, an enormous drop. Hopkins also only caught 51.7% of his targets, although many of those targets were terrible throws. Also, since Osweiler couldn’t throw deep whatsoever, the Texans funneled more short targets to their tight ends, with C.J. Fiedorowicz and Ryan Griffin combining for 163 targets. Therefore, Hopkins’ targets declined by 42 from 2015 down to 151 targets.

Either way, Hopkins’ 2016 season was a failure. However, it’s essential to look at the fact that it wasn’t just Hopkins that failed in this offense. All of the Texans’ receiving options put up terrible yards/target and the offense accounted for 15 total passing touchdowns. Only the Rams threw less passing touchdowns in 2016, and 23 teams scored 20 or more. Overall, while Hopkins wasn’t great, he finished as the WR26 despite all of these issues.

2017: Bounce-Back

After their 2016 quarterback nightmare, the Texans drafted Deshaun Watson in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft with the 12th overall pick to be their franchise quarterback. For the first time in his career, Hopkins would get the opportunity to play with a real star quarterback. Watson started six games before tearing his ACL, and he immediately lit the NFL on fire.

During that period, Hopkins averaged 21.1 fantasy PPG, by far the top receiver in fantasy football. Watson was the top quarterback over that span with 24.1 fantasy PPG, and Fuller also dominated when healthy. Essentially, the Texans were the NFL’s top passing offense.

However, even once Watson tore his ACL, Hopkins continued to succeed even with Tom Savage and T.J. Yates at quarterback. From Weeks 9-17, Hopkins averaged 20.3 fantasy PPG, only a small decline from his previous pace. Unlike 2016, he didn’t suffer a massive drop-off despite the poor play of Savage and Yates.

The main difference between 2016 and 2017 was that the Texans continued to force-feed Hopkins massive targets, and they ignored all other receivers. Hopkins had 174 targets on the season, but no other receiver had more than 57. Hopkins still wasn’t particularly efficient in 2017, catching only 55.2% of his targets, and failing to match his higher efficiency numbers from 2013 and 2014. However, Hopkins reasserted himself as a top fantasy receiver and as the Texans’ dominant receiving weapon.

2018-2019: Continued Excellence and Improved Efficiency

In 2018, Watson returned and started all 16 games for the Texans, giving Hopkins continuity at the quarterback position for the first time in his career. Once again, the Texans added nothing at wide receiver and suffered injuries, losing both Fuller and rookie Keke Coutee for multiple games throughout the season. Therefore, no other receiving weapon had more than Fuller’s 45 targets, opening the door for Hopkins to have 163 targets.

Consider that Hopkins had more than triple the targets of any other receiver on the team. In today’s NFL, where offenses spread the ball around more than ever, that type of stratified volume is unique. Hopkins also finally improved his catch rate, finishing above 60% for the first time in his career. Not only did he finish above 60%, but he also caught a whopping 70.6% of his targets and didn’t record a single drop.

Hopkins set career-highs in yards, receptions, and yards/targets, and he finished as the WR1 for the only time in his career. Hopkins carried both fantasy owners and the Texans to successful seasons and continued his dominance. At this point, Hopkins was the clear top receiver in the league, based on his age and consistency throughout his career.

While Hopkins didn’t manage to live up to his 2018 numbers in 2019, he had another great year. He maintained his strong catch rate, catching 69.3% of his targets. However, he dropped off in yards/target and yards/reception, setting a career-low in yards/reception with 11.2. Hopkins’ usage changed to a slightly shallower role, as the Texans brought in Kenny Stills to play as more of a deep-threat. Also, Fuller managed to stay healthy for 11 games and siphoned some targets away from Hopkins.

Despite those changes, Hopkins still more than doubled the targets of the next-highest Texans’ player and was a solid fantasy WR1. He wasn’t the dominant difference-maker he was in 2017 and 2018, but he put up solid performances all year. Most impressively, Hopkins played 15 of 16 games in 2019, the seventh straight season where he did that. Hopkins has only missed two games in his career, both coming in Week 17. Considering that the best ability in fantasy football is availability, Hopkins has never let fantasy owners down in that area.

2020: Future in Arizona

Inexplicably, Texans “general manager” Bill O’Brien decided to trade Hopkins to the Cardinals in exchange for running back David Johnson and draft picks, as @WillieBeamanDFF broke down previously. Hopkins immediately slots in as Arizona’s WR1, ahead of Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald. While Kyler Murray isn’t as proven of a quarterback as Deshaun Watson, I believe he will lead a potent offense, allowing Hopkins to find success.

As with the Texans, Hopkins will lead the team in targets, but I expect a decline to around 140 targets. That’s still quite high and would have ranked eighth among receivers in 2019. However, I can’t project Hopkins as a top-three fantasy receiver if I only see him around eighth in targets. I don’t see Hopkins as having the same ceiling on the Cardinals that he did on the Texans.

Between the drop in targets, the shortened offseason, and the general struggles of receivers in their first season with a new team, Hopkins has fallen to my WR6 in my redraft rankings. He’s only my 19th overall player, and he doesn’t fall into the category of stud receivers that I would take in the first round. While I love Hopkins’ talent, stud running backs are much harder to find, and I always find myself preferring the running backs in Hopkins’ value range during mock drafts.

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.

Previous Redraft Journey Articles: Austin Ekeler, Allen Robinson, Melvin Gordon