dynasty

Rapid Reaction: Sony Michel to the L.A. Rams

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Sony coming to Los Angeles helps give him a path towards more work than he would have found in New England. He wasn’t even in my top 40 for running backs before this but now he becomes a late-round pick you must make. Why? Darrell Henderson suffered a hand injury in his last pre-season game and while most reports say he will be good to go, Sean McVay will be more likely to give him a breather during the season. The Rams are all in on this season. Even with the arrival of Xavier Jones onto the scene in LA, Sony is a proven commodity and to me, he becomes the RB2 in that room and should take some series from him.

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Bull’s Crystal Ball: Predicting the Top Three at Each Position for 2021

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I don’t see too many changes amongst the rankings at the top of the list. Josh Allen has a huge amount of rushing upside and if he can be close to as efficient as he was last year, with an upgraded receiving corps, he has the likelihood of repeating. Patrick Mahomes is on another level, but I do expect the Chiefs to utilize their RBs at some point. While this may seem like slander to not predict Mahomes at 1; he is still my Dynasty Startup 1.01 as I think we can expect top-5 performances into his 30s. That consistency is the value to pay up for early in a startup, but Allen’s rushing upside cannot be overlooked. Jalen Hurts has the luxury that Lamar Jackson had in his second season. Hurts started enough games to have a taste, but teams haven’t schemed for him yet. He has the potential to put up 1000 yards on the ground and is in an offense that will throw the ball more than Baltimore has, and will likely trail in more games which will necessitate airing it out. I would like to be proved wrong but I think this will be the ceiling season for Hurts and at some point this year we should seek to move your shares or ride him to the ship and move on. Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, and Justin Herbert will likely feature in or around this list but regression or low volume will likely limit their vault into the top-3. 

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Chasing Ships and Flipping Pieces: Part 3

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The season is almost upon us! In FFPC leagues, there are barely two weeks left before we have to cut our rosters down to 20, including a kicker and a defense. On some of my dynasty squads, I am facing some steep cuts and difficult choices. How do I go about deciding which players to cut? Can I make some two-for-one trades that clear roster spots for me, or players for picks? Am I going to be fielding a competitive team that can contend for the title? Will there be a couple of impact players available on the first waiver run, and if so, will I have room to roster them? What about some later-round rookie picks that flashed during the preseason and I want to develop them? 

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Travis Etienne Injury Rapid Reaction

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The Jaguars offense has looked putrid over the first two games of the season as they battle through the learning curve of a new offensive system with a new head coach, a new quarterback, and a new running back, both drafted in the first round, thus setting the stage for some large expectations. However, their first-round running back, Travis Etienne may not even get to see the field this year after suffering a Lisfranc injury in Monday night’s game against the Saints.

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Dynasty Rookie Pick Hit Rates in FFPC

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Most rookie drafts are done by now, though there may still be a few going on. If you are reading this and you still have some late-round draft picks for this year, don’t give them up just yet! You may think they are worthless or that you don’t have room on your roster for these assets, but there can and are league winners to be found in the third round or later of rookie drafts.

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Searching for RB Deep Stashes

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In dynasty, one of the most under-appreciated assets is the bench stash running back. These cheap assets can climb up depth charts and become useful to either your starting lineup or for trade. These types of players can be acquired for a fourth-round rookie pick or less in most leagues but can return a second-rounder or more in trades if they become a starter. Even if it’s only for a couple of weeks. For example, last season I was able to trade Ryan Nall and a third-round rookie pick for a second-round rookie pick when he took over for David Montgomery. The hardest part is finding which players are the best bets to not only remain on a team but also climb a depth chart. This article will go over certain metrics you can look for when deciding between these late-round or free-agent RBs.

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Jonnu Smith: 2021 Dynasty Profile

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The fantasy community had high hopes for a Jonnu Smith breakout last season and did in some ways despite some injuries and the Titans’ infamously low passing volume. He still finished as the TE15 in PPR and TE9 in standard, but 2020 was also a terrible year for tight ends. Smith got most of his work from his dominance in the red zone, finishing number five in targets and scoring at a 20% rate with eight touchdowns. His 448 yards on 41 receptions certainly left truthers wanting more.

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Looking Ahead to Week Two

Ryan Tannehill: Still Underrated

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Ryan Tannehill revitalized his career when joining the Tennessee Titans in 2019. After taking over in Week 7 as the starting quarterback in 2019, Tannehill never looked back. From Week 7 on, Tannehill was the quarterback three with 225 fantasy points, averaging 22 points per game. The following year, he finished as the quarterback seven with 350 fantasy points in 16 games. Even after these stellar finishes, people are still doubting him. This is evident by his ADP, which, according to DFF Rankings, is the 11th quarterback off the board. I am here to tell you that you are too low on Tannehill.

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Film Study Guide: Scouting Elite Route-Runners

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Film vs Analytics is one of the contested debates in the fantasy community. Both are important and one hand washes the other. Scouting and watching film are the foundation of evaluating talent. If data was the only indicator of success, NFL scouts wouldn’t need a scouting department. They would hire a Google Intern to run algorithms for them. On the flip side, data can help you make unbiased decisions and adjust your rankings by having a macro-level view of a pool of statistics. It’s important to understand what coaches look at on the field or in training camp because they decide if a player will even see the field. Not your algorithm. Moreover, learning scouting and theory can help you understand why players perform the way they do and what makes your data sing or choke. 

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Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: NFC North

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Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series. The NFC North is the eighth and final divisional breakdown. Check out other breakdowns by clicking on each respective division (AFC North, NFC West, AFC West, NFC South, AFC South, NFC East, AFC East) here at DFF. Keep in mind, there will be a player whose stock is up and a player whose stock is down from each team in this division. Enjoy. 

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How Much Is A FFPC Dynasty Roster Spot Worth?

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How much is a dynasty roster spot worth? Or how much should it be worth? Has anyone really tried to come up with a quantitative measure that can be actionable in some way when we are managing our dynasty rosters? We have trade calculators, rankings, projections, all customizable by league settings (for the most part). But roster spots are largely ignored. When a trade is made that involves a two-for-one player exchange, a roster spot has been cleared for one owner. Or perhaps two spots in a three-for-one, although those kinds of deals are rarer.

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Joe Mixon: By the Numbers

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Volume is king in fantasy football. This could finally be the year where we see Mixon’s volume skyrocket. The Cincinnati Bengals are without their notorious touch-stealing threat, Giovani Bernard. This means all the third down work, all the goal line touches, and everything in between for Mixon. This is the first time he’ll have this opportunity in his career. From 2017 (Mixon’s rookie year) through 2019 (not including 2020 where he only played in six games), Mixon has averaged 290 receiving yards and 36 receptions on 45 targets per season. Meanwhile, in that span, Bernard averaged 280 receiving yards and 36 receptions on 50 targets per season. You take Bernard out of the equation and Mixon’s numbers essentially double. Mixon is easily looking at 300 total touches this season.

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Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: AFC North

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Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series. We have just two divisions remaining, and this week’s coverage will focus on the AFC North. Check out the breakdowns for the: NFC West, AFC East, NFC East, AFC South, NFC South, and the AFC West divisions here at DFF as well, with the NFC North to follow soon. Keep in mind, there will be a player whose stock is up and a player whose stock is down from each team in this division.

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2021 Post-Hype Sleepers

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It happens every year. Players get hyped during the offseason, and lofty expectations are set for them that coming season. Inevitably, several players will fail to meet those expectations and their value will fall, and leave a sour taste in your mouth. However, as a savvy fantasy player, you can use this to your advantage to identify undervalued players. Not every player who has failed to meet expectations will rebound, but if you put some thought into it, you can identify the ones that have a strong case for a bounce back.

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Rapid Reaction: Michael Thomas’ Ankle

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Thomas injured his ankle twice during the regular season last year and was expected to undergo surgery on it as early as January of 2021. Unfortunately for his team, it looks like now he won’t be looking 100% until we hit the ⅓ mark of the season. The Saints schedule has a bye Week 6 before they head into a Monday Night Football matchup against the division-rival Seahawks in Week 7. Given the expected timeline, it’s hard for me to imagine the Saints rushing him back there for the week 5 game against WFT at about the 3 to 3.5-month mark given the uncertainty of when the surgery actually occurred in June. Expecting a push for a Week 7 return makes the most sense when projecting this early on.

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Dynasty Debates: Derrick Henry Buy or Sell

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Derrick Henry is the starting running back for the Tennessee Titans, and he may be the most polarizing single player in fantasy football right now. The 27-year-old, sixth-year back out of Alabama is currently being valued by some as an elite fantasy running back, but many others are selling now projecting his market value to plummet due to his age. The Titans have Henry under contract through the 2023 season for approximately $12M per year. However, the Titans do have a potential out following the 2021 season where they would take on only a $6M dead cap hit that they may prorate over two seasons. The Titans had considerable offensive gains when they A) enabled Arthur Smith to call plays for the offensive unit, B) named Ryan Tannehill as the starting quarterback, and C) drafted A.J. Brown to become the new Alpha wide receiver.

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Robby Anderson

2021 Projections: Carolina Panthers

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The Panthers have typically been a run-heavy team in years past. This is due to them having Cam Newton and a revolving door at QB. Now that they have a stable passer in Darnold I think they will throw more often. In 2020 they had a pass to rush play ratio of 1.35 which is exactly league average. For 2021 I have them bumping up to a 1.41 ratio. As for their rush-to-pass touchdown ratio they have had a very low one of .85 in 2019 and .84 in 2020. Typically this sort of thing regresses to the league mean of 1.82, and I find it unlikely that we will see this low of a ratio again. So, for 2021 I am giving them a ratio of 1.25. Now let us look at what these trends do to the individual players.

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2021 Projections: Denver Broncos

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The wide receiver group for Denver also has a lot of ambiguity in itself too. Jerry Jeudy operated as the team’s top pass catcher in 2020 but Courtland Sutton was the lead dog in 2019. Who should we expect to be the alpha in 2021? I did my projections under the assumption the Jeudy would perform more so as the slot guy that may garner more targets but have lower yards per reception and touchdowns. While Sutton will be utilized as the mid to deep WR threat on the outside of the field and looked at more in the red zone. This means he can see fewer targets but achieve a similar yardage output and more touchdowns. My projections relay this well, and they both average within .5 fantasy points per game of each other. I think they will both be weekly mid-tier to low-tier WR2s so Sutton having an ADP of WR32 feels good and Jeudy having an ADP of WR41 feels awesome. I like them both at their ADP, but I do not like drafting two wide receivers from the same team in a typical redraft league. Therefore my recommended plan of action would be to pass on Sutton and draft Jeudy later. Jeudy also has a higher upside because he has the potential to see way more targets and produce more points in a more consistent way.

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