dynasty tight ends

Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: NFC North

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Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series. The NFC North is the eighth and final divisional breakdown. Check out other breakdowns by clicking on each respective division (AFC North, NFC West, AFC West, NFC South, AFC South, NFC East, AFC East) here at DFF. Keep in mind, there will be a player whose stock is up and a player whose stock is down from each team in this division. Enjoy. 

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Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: NFC West

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With the injury bug attacking San Francisco as a team in recent seasons, the rookie RB could find opportunities sooner than later. Jeff Wilson has already been struck with bad luck this offseason with a torn meniscus. Raheem Mostert is penciled in as the team’s starter for now, and he has played in all 16 games once in his seven years in the league. San Francisco also brought in Wayne Gallman from free agency this offseason, an RB who has never played in all 16 games and only holds 14 career starts under his belt in four seasons. 

In comes the rookie out of Ohio State, Trey Sermon. He was drafted out of the third round in this year’s NFL Draft, and he may find a steady role in this offense. Although he isn’t known as an elite pass-catcher, it wouldn’t be surprising if he turned into one. Right now, there are the three other RBs that will battle with him for playing time, but if he could find a way to become a threat in the receiving game, there’s no doubt that he will take more snaps than both Gallman and Wilson.

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Robby Anderson

2021 Projections: Carolina Panthers

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The Panthers have typically been a run-heavy team in years past. This is due to them having Cam Newton and a revolving door at QB. Now that they have a stable passer in Darnold I think they will throw more often. In 2020 they had a pass to rush play ratio of 1.35 which is exactly league average. For 2021 I have them bumping up to a 1.41 ratio. As for their rush-to-pass touchdown ratio they have had a very low one of .85 in 2019 and .84 in 2020. Typically this sort of thing regresses to the league mean of 1.82, and I find it unlikely that we will see this low of a ratio again. So, for 2021 I am giving them a ratio of 1.25. Now let us look at what these trends do to the individual players.

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2021 Projections: Denver Broncos

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The wide receiver group for Denver also has a lot of ambiguity in itself too. Jerry Jeudy operated as the team’s top pass catcher in 2020 but Courtland Sutton was the lead dog in 2019. Who should we expect to be the alpha in 2021? I did my projections under the assumption the Jeudy would perform more so as the slot guy that may garner more targets but have lower yards per reception and touchdowns. While Sutton will be utilized as the mid to deep WR threat on the outside of the field and looked at more in the red zone. This means he can see fewer targets but achieve a similar yardage output and more touchdowns. My projections relay this well, and they both average within .5 fantasy points per game of each other. I think they will both be weekly mid-tier to low-tier WR2s so Sutton having an ADP of WR32 feels good and Jeudy having an ADP of WR41 feels awesome. I like them both at their ADP, but I do not like drafting two wide receivers from the same team in a typical redraft league. Therefore my recommended plan of action would be to pass on Sutton and draft Jeudy later. Jeudy also has a higher upside because he has the potential to see way more targets and produce more points in a more consistent way.

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2021 Projections: Cleveland Browns

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Baker Mayfield had a bit of a sophomore slump in 2019, but we got to see him bounce back with a good 2020 season where he threw for 3500 yards and 26 touchdowns. I have him projected to expand on this in 2021 and collect almost 4200 passing yards along with 29 touchdowns. Seems pretty reasonable to me. A small increase in throws per game and adding a 17th game certainly make up for that increase in pass yards. This leaves Baker averaging 20.9 fantasy points per game, resulting in a low QB2 ranking. Baker’s current redraft ADP is QB16, this is a tad high for me. I would feel much better about getting him at the QB20-24 range, I am fading him at his ADP and so should you. However, if he happens to fall a few spots I would gladly take him in that previously mentioned 20-24 range.

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Changing Scenery: The Case for Gerald Everett

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Tight end is a position I’m obsessed with. Finding a low-cost player that booms in the most top-heavy position group is my Moby Dick. I find it egregious to spend a second or third-rounder for Travis Kelce, George Kittle, or Kyle Pitts while running back is thin and depth is everything, even in a TE Premium league. Imagine being the owner that drafted Mark Andrews cheaply as a rookie, or scored him late in a startup his breakout season? Moves like that are what win leagues. 

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2021 Buy Low Dynasty Sleepers

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It’s officially start-up season! The buzz of the NFL Draft and free agency has worn off, rookie drafts are wrapping up, and dynasty managers are left chasing that sweet high. We’re all scraping for every bit of info we can from OTAs like we’re searching for a loose fry at the bottom of the bag. Welcome to The Void. The space between OTAs and Mini-Camps where every fantasy junkie is trying to fill said void anyway we can. Most of us are now obsessively trading or telling ourselves “just one more startup,” followed by more obsessive trading. Depending on what boat you’re in, let’s look at those cheap sleepers you can either buy low on the league trade block or take a flier during a startup so you can spend that high draft stock elsewhere using Sleeper’s ADP data, and scouting reports from NFL.com.

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2021 Projections: Buffalo Bills

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The Buffalo RB group is interesting. I gave Zack Moss more rushing work than Devin Singletary and gave Singletary more receiving work than Moss. Which matches the trend set when both were active in 2020. Unfortunately, this creates two RBs that I do not want. At first, I found it surprising that Singletary came out with more points than Moss because I thought Moss’s TD upside would trump the receiving upside. However, Singletary uses that receiving upside to achieve four receiving touchdowns. Both of these running backs ended up with seven total touchdowns, but Singletary had 30 more receptions which give him the point advantage. These RBs may not seem desirable, but at their respective ADPs, I could see myself owning some Singletary. He is currently being drafted after Zach Moss, so I would take advantage of this by fading Moss and scooping Singletary late.

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Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: AFC South

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Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series. This week’s coverage is all about the AFC South. This is the third division breakdown, and you can find the AFC East here and the NFC East here. Keep in mind, there will be a player whose stock is up and a player whose stock is down from each team in this division. Let’s dive right in. 

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2021 Projections: Kansas City Chiefs

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Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a player that was hyped to Mars in the last off-season. I had been calling him a post-hype buy candidate all off-season so I was excited to see what my projections would have in store for him. In 2020 CEH had 45% of the team’s carries and that was with him missing three full games. So, in 2021 I have him projected for 50% of the team’s carries. I also gave him a 50% share of the rush TDs and a 10% target share. All of these comes together to make a 1,300 yard and 13 total TD season. One of CEH’s biggest issues last season was finding the endzone, I have him correcting this in a big way and seeing an elite TD floor. He is the main RB in the league’s most consistent offense. He should see a lot of TD opportunities this season.

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tigh end adp gains

The Gains of Tight End ADP

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Everyone wants to find the edge in fantasy football. Sometimes the edge is glaring at you from across the room, and you just fail to notice it; or in this case, everyone fails to notice. Everyone is enamored with top-tier running backs and quarterbacks because of the positional advantage they give your team. We should be looking at the difference in production between a top player at a position and the bottom end starter at the same position, but we need to set some criteria for this study to have the most helpful results. 

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Patriots: WR Reaction

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Day one of the NFL’s free agency period only had a few big-name offensive skill players find teams. But there was one extremely active team…the New England Patriots. The Patriots made roughly 99% of the signings on Monday and each one came with criticism. On the offensive side of the ball, they added Jonnu Smith at the tight end position and the wide receiver duo of Agholor and Bourne. Agholor signs a two-year $26 million dollar deal while Bourne signed a three-year deal, worth $22.5 million. 

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Jonnu Smith Signs With New England

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In college Jonnu Smith broke out as a true freshman for FIU with 388 yards and two TDs, earning a dominator rating of 23.8%. A 710 yard and eight TD sophomore season was Smith’s most productive, as he earned a 42.6% dominator rating. However, injuries slowed down Smith in the latter half of his collegiate career. Smith was a piece of the 2016 Jared Goff trade that landed the Titans a litany of draft capital. Smith was selected in the third round of the 2017 NFL Draft by the Tennessee Titans at the 100th overall pick. In his four seasons with the Titans, Smith amassed 114 catches for 1,302 yards and 16 TDs. He is coming off his most productive season in which he turned 65 targets into 41 catches, 448 yards, and eight TDs along with one rushing TD. He finished as the TE20 in fantasy football, underperforming based on his TE16 dynasty ADP.

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pitts te vs wr

Kyle Pitts’ Valuation: Tight End vs. Wide Receiver

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The year was 2014, amongst many other discrepancies in the world, Jimmy Graham changed his Twitter bio to inform the world that he was a wide receiver, not a tight end. An NFL arbitrator had to step in and rule on this case. Why is this important? Because Jimmy Graham was franchised tagged by the New Orleans Saints and wanted to be designated as a wide receiver rather than a tight end. Graham lined up split out on 67% of the Saints snaps the previous season. If Graham had been designated as a wide receiver, he would have made 71% more money on his franchise tender than as a tight end. The NFL arbitrator ruled that Graham was a tight end, saving Mickey Loomis millions of dollars.

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The Dynasty Wire: Week 15

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This week and every week going forward we’ll bring you several recommendations for players you should add to your dynasty rosters. We’ll mainly be targeting lower-owned guys who should be available in all but the deepest leagues. 

Someone will need to explain to me why Chad Hansen is still on the waiver wire in any dynasty leagues. Not because he’s going to break out and become an every-week starter going forward but because there hasn’t been a single game he’s played in which he didn’t score 10+ fantasy points. The Houston receiving corps is decimated by injuries and Hansen is feasting on the opportunities. You should own him to sell him to the highest bidder if nothing else. 

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The Dynasty Wire: Week 12

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This week and every week going forward we’ll bring you several recommendations for players you should add to your dynasty rosters. We’ll mainly be targeting lower-owned guys who should be available in all but the deepest leagues. Ito Smith could be the unlikely hero for someone’s championship roster. If Todd Gurley misses an extended period of time, Smith would instantly vault into weekly fantasy relevancy. Gurley was a last-minute inactive due to a knee injury. We know he suffers from arthritis of the knee so maybe Atlanta is resting him in a lost season. We can’t be sure, but we do know Smith is part of the one, two punch in Gurley’s absence and he receives high volume in the passing attack. Smith scored a rushing and receiving touchdown in Week 12 and could be poised for some heavy lifting going forward.

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The Dynasty Wire: Week 11

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This week and every week going forward we’ll bring you several recommendations for players you should add to your dynasty rosters. We’ll mainly be targeting lower-owned guys who should be available in all but the deepest leagues. 

Rogers has been waiver wire surfing the last few weeks after putting up a goose egg in Week 8 and going on bye the following week. But, dropping him was clearly a mistake. He’s scored 14+ fantasy points in three of the last five weeks (one being a bye week) and continues to feast on a high target share and opportunity while the team lacks pass-catching talent.

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The Dynasty Wire: Week 8

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I had to make sure someone didn’t spike my drink when I witnessed Foreman running the ball for an NFL franchise this past weekend. Foreman was a fantasy darling years ago before suffering a devastating knee injury as a Houston Texan. He’s now back up to Derrick Henry but got some run in Week 8 against the Bengals. He took five carries for 37 yards and looked healthy for the first time in years. This is the longest of shots but a guy with a pedigree on a run-first team. 

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