Tight end is a position I’m obsessed with. Finding a low-cost player that booms in the most top-heavy position group is my Moby Dick. I find it egregious to spend a second or third-rounder for Travis Kelce, George Kittle, or Kyle Pitts while running back is thin and depth is everything, even in a TE Premium league. Imagine being the owner that drafted Mark Andrews cheaply as a rookie, or scored him late in a startup his breakout season? Moves like that are what win leagues.
But sometimes you draft Hayden Hurst. Sometimes you don’t draft another solid backup because you have Evan Engram and you just know this will be his breakout year. Moves like that are how you keep losing in the playoffs. But as I said, chasing breakout-hopeful tight ends is my Moby Dick. And as your Captain Ahab, I’m going to sell you on Gerald Everett by breaking down his production with the Rams, his future in Seattle, and why you should wait to draft your league-winning tight end.
Too Many Weapons. Not Enough Quarterback Talent.
Everett’s time in LA can be described best as up and down. He definitely won games for some managers, but he burned the GMs that traded real capital or blew all their FAAB on him. The fantasy community is unforgiving and is quick to write off talent even if it takes more time to develop. Recency bias is a real thing! So let’s actually break down his situation with the Rams.
It goes without saying that Everett had been buried on a talented roster since he was drafted in 2017 44th overall in the second round. There are only so many targets to go around despite the Rams having top-five passing offenses two out of the last three seasons, and he found himself the odd TE out with McVay putting more emphasis on the run. Tyler Higbee was the superior blocker, and thus a better fit for the new system. Can you blame a guy for not being that relevant when he’s fighting for scraps while Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and Higbee get the main course in a run-first offense? You should feel even worse when you remember who was under center.
Enter: Jared Goff. A man who answers the question, “What if a dry ham sandwich could throw a football?” Sure, he can get you by for a bit, but you’re not exactly going to be left with a belly full of championships. Over the last three seasons, we’ve watched Goff go from a low-cost fantasy boom to an untradeable roster-clogger who happens to look like Ryan Gosling. Not only did we see a more run-heavy offense, but we saw Goff’s efficiency decline.
A quarterback of Goff’s stock should be thriving while operating through the run/play-action with the talent around him, but all we witnessed was him quite literally wilt under pressure. McVay’s new offense is designed to take pressure off the quarterbacks by freezing the defense to honor the run. Despite the system working in his favor, Jared Goff still ranked 32nd on deep-ball completion according to PlayerProfiler.com. It gets worse after you see his Pressured Completion Percentage is a dismal 38 percent. But Goff isn’t the main character in this story because he’s obviously the villain.
Everett still put up modest stats when given the opportunity despite his situational obstacles. His PlayerProfiler.com numbers reveal some interesting potential. Everett had a True Catch Rate of 93 percent despite ranking 32 in Catchable Target Rate. To nail home just how bad Goff was to our boy, he finished sixth in Target Separation. Everett’s eight percent drop rate seems more understandable once you look deeper at the numbers. Imagine the stats he’d have in a better situation in let’s say, Seattle.
New Quarterback. Same Potential.
Fast Forward to 2021, and the depressing part is over. It’s a brand new season where everyone from real GMs to fantasy managers are filled with hope. Everett does miss out on the potential of the now Stafford-led Rams, but fear not, he gets his own upgrade with the Seahawks. Gerald Everett just signed a one-year “prove-it” deal worth up to $10M, which is nothing to sniff at. This makes me think Seattle believes Everett can do more than just prove it. Who’s their OC you might ask? Former Rams passing coordinator Shane Waldron.
Everett finds himself moving from a bad situation with a good system, to the same system with a better situation. This familiarity should ease the transition enough to where he only needs to build trust and rapport with Russell Wilson and apparently, that won’t take long. Pete Carroll was already quoted by ESPN Seattle saying that Everett could be the team’s breakout candidate.
Everett is the perfect compliment to D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. While those two excel on the outside, Everett can thrive out of the slot where he can attack the middle of the field and use his YAC ability. Jacob Hollister and Greg Olsen are gone via free agency and retirement, respectively, leaving behind 77 targets. And we’ve seen enough Will Dissly to be confident he won’t be much of a threat. So I’m willing to bet Carroll isn’t just blowing smoke. But is Everett even worth the late-round flier? Spoiler alert: He is.
The Final Verdict
The tight end wasteland has its Big Three and then a steep dropoff. T.J. Hockenson and Andrews are great talents, but are they worth the draft capital? It should be a little concerning that Hockenson now has the production assassin under center, and the Ravens have made their intentions known that they’d like to utilize their receivers more. Those two ceilings aren’t as high as you think.
Now I’m not saying bet it all on Everett. What I am saying is that you can double up after round 12 on quality talent with upside. You could even get Hockenson, Andrews, or Hunter Henry at a good value and then draft Everett, and see what kind of offers you can get by selling to the guy in your league who missed out on tight ends. Or better yet, I’d target those running backs losing value like Joe Mixon, and easily score both Everett and Jonnu Smith late. It’s about value, folks. And I’d scoop up the value Everett is dripping with before his price spikes.
Thanks for reading! Feel free to find me @SportsJag, so we can talk way too passionately about football, and you can catch all future content.
