dynasty running backs

Comparing ADP, Dynasty to Redraft: AFC North

A much-overlooked aspect of dynasty is value comparison, or comparing the values of dynasty players to redraft players and seeing which is worth more or less. You might be thinking “well, duh! Of course, older players are worth less in dynasty than redraft!” to which I agree. But what about Daniel Jones (QB – NYJ), who is only 25 years old? Should he be worth more in redraft or dynasty? Or how about Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DEN), who in redraft has an ADP of WR10, but in dynasty he’s valued as WR6. Which side more appropriately values players? In this series, which will take place over nine parts (one part for each division and a rookie roundup after the draft), I’ll be evaluating every skill position player on every team and giving my thoughts on their value, whether they are overvalued compared to redraft, or undervalued. Usually, the appropriate value will be somewhere in the middle.

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Predicting and Analyzing the 2023 RB Carousel: NFC North

With NFL Free Agency underway, the stacked running back landscape is shifting more than it has in a long time. Over the past few weeks, I’ve gone over my predictions for the running back situations of each team, as well as the corresponding fantasy implications. Today, we’ll be taking a look at the changes that have already happened in NFC North, as well as what still is to come. Check out Part 5 of this series, where I predicted the AFC North. 

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luke musgrave

Dynasty Prospect Combine Winners

It’s combine week! Time for all of our favorite prospects to compete in the underwear olympics. If you talk to different people, you will get different answers on just how meaningful the combine is. NFL scouts look for traits and this helps them determine that on a comparable scale. Here are the biggest winners from this week in Indianapolis and how it effects your preparation for dynasty rookie drafts.

Throughout this article you will see a tool called the Relative Athletic Score. This is a wonderful tool created by Kent Lee Platte to provide an overall size adjusted athleticism score utilizing inputs from combine results. It runs on a scale from 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest. Give him a follow on Twitter @mathbomb.

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Derek Carr to the New Orleans Saints

The morning after the combine, everyone is moving rookie rankings up and down based on the measurements and data collected from the weekend. Little did we know we would get the first domino to fall in the off-season QB market. Derek Carr has signed a 4-year deal with the New Orleans Saints worth $150M and $100M in guarantees. The Saints are again using some strange contract structures to pretend that the salary cap does not exist. That is a discussion for another time though. For now, we dive forward into what Carr to the Saints means in terms of Dynasty Fantasy Football. Before I continue, special thanks to Chris Museezer (@force_fantasty) and Paul Patterson (@fantastyfreezer) for helping with data sources and outlining. I may be the one putting the words on the screen but those guys had already gathered useful data for me before I even turned my computer on today. 

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Where We Went Wrong: Zach Wilson & Jalen Hurts

NFL teams every single year find themselves in one of two camps at this time. Those that have their Quarterback for the future and those that do not. Those that don’t are frequently tasked with drafting a quarterback, one of the most challenging parts of a General Manager’s job in the NFL. Over the years we have had plenty of decisions that get questioned for years to come. Ken O’Brien over Dan Marino or Peyton Manning over Ryan Leaf, the differences these selections make are truly franchise-altering decisions. This process is mimicked often in the Dynasty Football space as we sit and try to evaluate the talent and project how they will perform at the NFL level. Longevity is an important trait of Quarterbacks taken in the first round of our Superflex rookie drafts like NFL teams. We may tend in the Fantasy circles to like mobile Quarterbacks a bit more than the NFL thanks to their rushing floor but mostly want the same things NFL teams want in signal callers. Sometimes we hit, Andrew Luck was exactly what we thought he was coming out of college. Sometimes we miss though. Today’s two cases we will discuss that we as a community were wrong on. 

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Sam Howell Touchdown

Washington Commanders: Offseason Update

We may have thought this was coming but it is now official, the Commanders have cut Carson Wentz. This coming shortly after former Chiefs offensive coordinator, Eric Bieniemy, joined the team to run their offense means we should see some big changes in dynasty value for some of these players. Let’s not waste time and get right into the trickle-down of these moves.

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Trey McBride

Overlooked Gems: NFC West Edition

In this continued offseason series, we will break down one player from each NFL team currently being overlooked. At the same time, that player could provide great depth/potential to a deep dynasty league roster. These players are worth picking up if they are in your free agency. They are also players you may want to reconsider keeping if they are fringe roster cut options. I will try to convince you why they are worth a roster spot for now. Of course, the NFL Draft and free agency period could diminish each player’s value, but we need to be making sure we bolster our roster(s) as much as we can. Each week, one division will be broken down, and today is all about the NFC West.

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jalin hyatt

Jalin Hyatt: Where Fantasy and Reality Diverge

One of the most respected draft experts, Lance Zierlein, set off a Twitter firestorm this week when he placed Jalin Hyatt as his first wide receiver off the board, 12th overall, in his first mock draft.

He states:

“Let me first start off by saying I believe this draft is very similar to the 2016 draft in terms of wideouts. I didn’t see any WR as a true WR1 for a team. Here was how I graded them. Obviously, Mike Thomas ended up being a dude but the rest? Here is how I had it (old scale)”

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Xavier Hutchinson

’23 Rookie WR Early Rankings: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly Truth

The Senior Bowl has come and gone and we move one step further in our off-season process. Thankfully, I’m one step closer in my own rookie evaluations with my first look at the 2023 rookie receiver class. We’ll use film analysis numerical data from the regular season and look at using KPIs based on DFF’s very own Chris Miles. Using the points from his model and tales from the tape, I’ll break down this highly touted rookie class by discussing The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly of each prospect.

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velus jones jr

Overlooked Gems: NFC North Edition

In this new fantasy offseason series, we will break down one player from each NFL team who is currently being overlooked. At the same time, that player could provide great depth/potential to a deep dynasty league roster. These players are worth picking up if they are in your free agency. They are also players you may want to reconsider keeping if they are fringe roster cut options. I will be trying to convince you as to why they are worth a roster spot for now. Of course, the NFL Draft and free agency period could diminish each player’s value, but we need to be making sure we bolster our roster(s) as much as we can. Each week, one division will be broken down, and today is all about the NFC North.

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The Rapid Rise and Fall of Cam Akers: A Modern Tragedy

Think back to yourself two off-seasons ago: Akers is coming off a six-game stretch (including two playoff games) where he averaged 110 total yards on 22 carries (not touches, carries) per game, as well as scoring five TDs. My favorite of these games came against New England when he gashed the 2020 Patriots for 171 yards on 5.9 yards per carry. Watching him glide effortlessly on well-blocked inside and outside zone runs, making defenders miss at the second level and falling forward sometimes seven or eight yards with DBs trying to bring him down. Then his playoff run, where he put up what would’ve been 21.1 PPR points per game against the Seahawks and Packers- nearly willing the Goff-era Rams to another Conference Championship.

Think back to yourself two offseasons ago: Akers is coming off a six-game stretch (including two playoff games) where he averaged 110 total yards on 22 carries (not touches, carries) per game, as well as scoring 5 TDs. My favorite of these games came against New England when he gashed the 2020 Patriots for 171 yards on 5.9 yards per carry. Watching him glide effortlessly on well-blocked inside and outside zone runs, making defenders miss at the second level and falling forward sometimes seven or eight yards with DBs trying to bring him down. Then his playoff run, where he put up what would’ve been 21.1 PPR points per game against the Seahawks and Packers- nearly willing the Goff-era Rams to another Conference Championship.

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Trade Ideas for the Upcoming 2023 Free Agent Running Backs

In dynasty, you have to be a step ahead of your competition. Everyone is captivated by the impressive incoming 2023 rookie running back class and rightfully so, it should be a fantastic influx of talent. However, my contrarian personality wants to gain an edge over this fact rather than going along with the flow. Since there is so much talent in the upcoming rookie class, the 2023 free agent class is flying under the radar. Now is an excellent time to familiarize yourself with the upcoming free agent class before everyone else does. Here is a list of the upcoming 2023 free agents. The current competition on the free agent’s team is included because their value could be affected as much as the actual free agents.

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noah brown

Week 3 Dynasty Waiver Wire

Hello DFF members, my name is Chris and this year I will be writing the weekly dynasty waiver adds piece. In this article I will be writing about players that I feel should be owned in much higher quantities in your dynasty leagues. I will try to stick to low ownership percentages, around 30% or less, but if there is a guy above that, who I think should be owned significantly more I will include them as well. I will be focusing on a 12-team, full PPR set-up for these articles but the players I am choosing should apply in 10-team leagues as well. Without further ado let’s get into the waiver adds. 

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James Cook 2

Buy Low/Sell High RBs

James Cook did not start his career the way he hoped to. On his first NFL carry, he lost a fumble and did not receive another for the rest of the game. This has to worry owners and is a great opportunity to buy low here.

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dotson

Week 1 Rookie Performances

In Dynasty Fantasy Football, it is crucial to keep a watch on the new rookie class and be aware of who is doing well, who is doing bad, and who’s values are fluctuating. Today I will be going throw some of the more relevant rookie performances and giving my thoughts on what this means for them. Let’s get right into it.

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2022 Projections: Cincinnati Bengals

When we loosely compare players, most people feel they have a good idea of what kind of production to expect. We may think “Can Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase both really be top 12 wide receivers in fantasy this year?.” But, there may just not be room for that kind of production. I make projections to ground myself and help to understand what is actually possible, probable, or realistic. So, in this series, I will be going through each NFL team and making median projections for their 2022 seasons with their most fantasy-relevant players. I may be able to discern if certain players are being undervalued immediately but in most cases, I will need to finish more teams to get a good idea. 

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draft stock week 6

Dynasty Market Sweep: Post-Draft Rookie RB Market Report

Welcome to the Dynasty Market Sweep, a recurring offseason article focusing on substantial value disparities in the dynasty market consensus. The very nature of the instantaneous fantasy news feed has made the dynasty market more reactionary and volatile than ever before. Once the proverbial petrol is poured, and Twitter fingers snap to ignite, player values can burn to the ground overnight. Value changes of this nature cause a ripple effect across the market. For every step up the ladder, someone must move down and vice versa.

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2022 DFF Draft Coverage: Hassan Haskins

Haskins did play in 2018 but redshirted after only playing in three games as a special teams player. He received the team’s Most Improved Player Award after producing 622 rushing yards and six touchdowns during the 2019 season. In a limited role in 2020, he managed to lead the team in rushing (375) with only two starts in six games. He finally served as the team’s workhorse in 2021, and it proved him and his team well. On 270 carries, Haskins turned in 1,327 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns. He also hauled in 18 receptions for 131 yards as well. His 20 rushing scores were the fourth-most in all of FBS in 2021 and tied for the third-most in a Michigan Wolverine season. 

2022 DFF Draft Coverage: James Cook

The younger brother of Dalvin Cook. James split time with Zamir White for most of his collegiate career. White served as the primary rusher, and Cook spent a ton of his time as a lethal receiver out of the backfield. In 46 career games for the Bulldogs, Cook hauled 67 receptions for 730 yards and six touchdowns. During his first three seasons, he didn’t receive much work on the ground. During those three years, Cook combined for 775 yards on 117 carries (6.6 yards per attempt) and seven touchdowns. He produced 728 yards on 113 carries (6.4 yards per attempt) and seven touchdowns in his senior season alone. No matter how he got the ball, he turned in solid production in his limited role.