We may have thought this was coming but it is now official, the Commanders have cut Carson Wentz. This coming shortly after former Chiefs offensive coordinator, Eric Bieniemy, joined the team to run their offense means we should see some big changes in dynasty value for some of these players. Let’s not waste time and get right into the trickle-down of these moves.
Immediate Impact
Eric Bieniemy was hired first so let us start there. The Chiefs have been one of the top offenses in the league for the last five years. They had a slew of weapons that included Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Andy Ried to run the show from the top. As well as guys who were able to reach their full potential from this coaching, like Mecole Hardman and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. The question here was if Andy Ried or Eric Bieniemy deserved the credit for their genius offense. I would like to think it was both but also that Bieniemy will greatly be able to help Washington make the most of their talents. And that starts at the quarterback position with the current lead QB on the team, Sam Howell. Howell was the QB1 of my rookie QB model for the 2022 class and has now made his way to NFL starter. Sam Howell’s analytical profile is fantastic, and I believe Bieniemy will make full use of his skills. Sam is a good passer that has also shown above-average mobility at the college level. Bieniemy will make full use of his new quarterback’s skills and he could turn into a viable fantasy asset. I think Howell should be seen as a mid to low quarterback two in dynasty, with the potential to be a Jared Goff-level producer and sit around the QB15 range. I would be very surprised if Howell became a guy that had multiple top-twelve seasons at the position.
The Next Level
After the quarterback, the next affected position is the receiving corps. I am looking forward to the production from guys like Jahan Dotson and Terry McLaurin this upcoming season. We have a coordinator that knows how to scheme, players open in all areas of the field, a quarterback that is capable of putting the ball anywhere and is not afraid to take chances, and two receivers that can utilize the full route tree as well as win deep with speed. I think Dotson is a steal at his current ADP of WR32 and then McLaurin is a solid value at WR26. These guys are lined up for potential career seasons and we know what happens when a young WR has a great year, they skyrocket in dynasty value. Dotson would be a priority buy right now for me. According to FantasyCalc.com, you can send a mid-2023 first in exchange for Dotson and a 2023 second is about an even swap, and I would make that trade all day. Eric Bieniemy joining the team is not going to fix their defense but it will make them much more competitive. I could see the Commanders being in a lot more shootouts and forced into a lot of passing situations, which is great for WR and QB production.
Next, we have the running back group. I think it is hard to predict how Bieniemy will use these backs by looking at what they did in Kansas City. People may say he likes to have a committee, but I may say he got stuck with a high-capital RB that isn’t very good and had to try and make up the production with multiple cheaper backs. If Bieniemy had Saquon Barkley at his disposal he would not be limiting his touches. Gibson seems to be the pass-catching back that still gets some carries, while Robinson seems to be their two-down grinder who sees a larger share of the goal line work. I’d expect these roles to pretty much continue but, the backs should see better efficiency with a better scheme as well as more scoring opportunities.
Lastly, I just want to touch on the next set of receivers in Curtis Samuel and Dyami Brown. Dyami was catching passes from Howell in college at UNC so it will be interesting to see if that bond can be reunited and if we see some actual production from Brown. Samuel is a good player and will see work, but he is more of a gadget player and I do not see him getting a lot of volumes this coming season. Regardless he will be a good pick n best ball drafts since any week he could pop off for a lot of yards or a couple of touchdowns. Both of these players are cheap to acquire and I like throwing darts at their price, especially Dyami because he is so cheap.
Summary
Sam Howell is the current starter of the Commanders and Eric Bieniemy will unlock his full potential. I like Howell to be seen in the QB20-ish tier of dynasty rankings and would select him at QB21 in drafts right now (including the rookies). The Commanders will be passing more, playing faster, and scoring more. Allowing the receivers to rack up high-volume games and even some more touchdowns. Expect Dotson especially to produce well and quickly rise the ranks. The running backs should see better efficiency due to teams being afraid of the pass and the overall improved offensive gameplan as well as even more scoring opportunities due to more drive and fewer stalled drives. Lastly, the Chiefs were able to make full use of their tertiary players so I expect Curtis Samuel and Dyami Brown to each have a few big games this year #BetterInBestball. I am excited about the promise of this offense and the value its players currently hold.
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