A 2023 Rookie Wide Receiver Analytics Spotlight Series
One of the most respected draft experts, Lance Zierlein, set off a Twitter firestorm this week when he placed Jalin Hyatt as his first wide receiver off the board, 12th overall, in his first mock draft.
He states:
“Let me first start off by saying I believe this draft is very similar to the 2016 draft in terms of wideouts. I didn’t see any WR as a true WR1 for a team. Here was how I graded them. Obviously, Mike Thomas ended up being a dude but the rest? Here is how I had it (old scale)”
I agree with this statement and stated as much on January 16th.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is my top wide receiver for dynasty leagues but as a slot receiver, most wouldn’t consider him as a WR1. However, he should produce as a reliable dynasty wide receiver in the mold of Keenan Allen for his career.
Zierlein continues, “They had an explosive trait that can create chunk plays and long touchdowns, alter coverage schemes and make life easier on running games that don’t have to see safeties mugged up near or in the box.”
This is one of those situations where fantasy and reality diverge. Those who play fantasy need to realize players bring value to a team other than the box score production. These factors influence draft capital. Field stretchers such as Hyatt have long been pushed into the top 15 with players such as Henry Ruggs, Jameson Williams, and John Ross. This does not mean they should be drafted ahead of players with similar draft capital in dynasty leagues.
Zierlein is a film-based expert and I utilize his film grades in my WR1 analytical model. So let’s dive into Hyatt’s production profile to see how he might perform for your dynasty team vs what value he might bring to an NFL team.
Measurables
6’0″ 185 lbs.
Expected 40-yard dash time: 4.29
Analytic Grades
Each year I use an established analytical process (The WR1 Model) to forecast who the future dynasty elite wide receivers will be. You can find a detailed explanation of the process here. While some of the nine metrics utilized in the model (relative athletic score, film grade, and draft capital) are not yet finalized, we can begin to get a picture of who the players you want to target are.
For players with at least three years of NFL experience, of the top 12 graded incoming prospects in the WR1 model 11 have gone on to have at least one top-24 fantasy season. Therefore, if you receive a top 12 WR1 model grade you have a 91.7% chance of having at least one future top 24 fantasy season. (Note 9 of the 11 have had multiple top 24 seasons with Devonta Smith likely to make it 10). The lower your score in the model, the less likely you are to have a future top-24 fantasy season. Players graded 13-36 all-time in the model have a 70.8% hit rate. Players graded 37-60 all-time have a 54.2% hit rate. Players graded 61-84 all-time have just a 20.8% hit rate.
Nine metrics contribute to the overall WR1 grade. For the incoming rookie class, we will look at some of the metrics we have available now.
Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt
Receiving yards per team pass attempt is a highly predictive metric for future fantasy success.
Jalin Hyattl’s best season RYPTPA is 3.22.
This is a strong prospect score for RYPTPA. 10 of the top 12 all-time WR1 prospects and 21 of the top 24 WR1 prospects had a best season RYPTPA above 3.0. Hyatt’s 3.22 mark ranks third in this class.
Weighted Dominator
The weighted dominator metric is the player’s share of their team’s touchdowns and receiving yards weighted 80% receiving yards and 20% touchdowns.
Jalin Hyatt’s best season weighted dominator is 34.0%.
This is another solid number for Hyatt. 11 of the top-12 all-time WR1 prospects had a dominator above 30%. 7 of those top-12 had a dominator above Hyatt’s 36.2%.
Projected Draft Capital
I use the NFL mock draft database to forecast a player’s draft capital ahead of the NFL draft. This is a consensus of the top mock drafters nationwide.
Hyatt is a polarizing prospect amongst mock drafters. Zierlein had him 12th overall while others have him in the second round. I will slot him somewhere in between for now and say he will go in the back half of the first round.
Early Declare
Eleven of the top-12 players in the all-time WR1 scores were early declares. Only DeVonta Smith cracked this tier while playing through his senior season. 22 of the top 24 were also early declares. The players who declare early have received input from the NFL that they will be drafted early enough to warrant foregoing their senior season.
Jalin Hyatt is an early declare so he passes this part of the test.
Breakout Year
Similar to the early declare metric, breakout year also had 11 of the top-12 players in the all-time WR1 score with a first or second-year breakout. The only exception again is DeVonta Smith. It was only Smith’s immense production his Senior year that had him break the top 12 total WR1 score. Smith is the perfect measure of why this model is so accurate. Many analytic-based models did not have Smith as a top prospect because he failed several important metrics. However, the WR1 rating was one of the few that rated him (and Chris Olave) highly. The proof manifested this year with Devonta Smith achieving hit status as a Top 24 fantasy WR.
Hyatt’s third-year breakout is a red flag as it was for Smith. This knocks him down quite a bit in the WR1 model but again there are nine metrics I look at, so the other metrics can bring him back up if they are solid enough.
PPR PPG Average
This metric measures the prospect’s one point per reception, one point per 10 yards receiving fantasy scoring on a points-per-game basis in their college career. This is ultimately the exact metric you want to be mirrored for their NFL Careers.
Jalin Hyatt achieved a modest 13.8 PPR PPG in his college career.
Nine of the top twelve prospects in the WR1 model all-time had a PPR PPG above 17.0. This outcome matches the type of wide receiver we should expect Hyatt to be at the next level. A speed merchant with choppy production and huge spike games akin to a player like Desean Jackson.
Strengths
Speed, speed, and more speed. Hyatt has already run a 4.31-timed forty-yard dash. It is expected he will be in the 4.2’s at the combine.
Hyatt combines this ultra-elite trait with superior ball tracking to routinely run under deep balls with accuracy.
Weaknesses
Hyatt has a limited route tree.
It remains to be seen if he can beat press coverage in the NFL.
Conclusion
The preliminary grade for Jalin Hyatt in the WR1 model is 36.0 which forecasts he has a 70.8% chance to have at least one top-24 fantasy season in his future NFL career. Hyatt is currently ranked as the number four wide receiver in this class.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy. Click here for a 12-month DFF Membership. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting
