dynasty rookies

Top 10 Fantasy Football Myths Busted: #1-5

Dynasty / By /

There is no shortage of annual narratives that develop within the hive mind of the fantasy football (FF) community. Some narratives last for several seasons, and some attach themselves to specific players. That is not to say that the hive mind can’t be useful, or that narratives that form are necessarily wrong. Quite the opposite happens a lot of the time. The wisdom of the crowd is something that can be leveraged to improve one’s fantasy performance. But following the groupthink mindset can be treacherous, and has led to what I think are some systemic misunderstandings within the hobby.

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Draft or Pass: Jameson Williams

Dynasty / By /

Jameson Williams is one of the most intriguing prospects in the ’22 class. Williams tore his ACL in January but had an incredible season for Alabama before being named as a finalist for the Biletnikoff Award, which is awarded to the nation’s most outstanding WR in college. His incredible speed was displayed every weekend, regularly gashing opponents for chunk gains and long touchdowns, whether through the air or the return game, finishing his junior season with 79 catches for 1572 yards and 15 TDs. The only hole in his statistical profile is that he essentially did nothing until he got to Bama; with Ohio State, he totaled just 15 catches for 266 yards and 3 TDs in his first two seasons combined. Jameson offers a skill set that is required on every single NFL roster, his field-stretching ability could change the potential of an offense as well as possibly elevate other players around him, but I don’t think his stats will be a good representation of his value for the team that drafts him. 

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The WR1 Rating Dynasty Rookie Countdown: Part 2

Rookie / By /

For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a proprietary formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future dynasty value for incoming rookie wide receivers. The WR1 model scores rookies on nine predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a total WR1 rating score. The goal is to provide a single easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend all the time dissecting different metrics. 

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2022 DFF SF Rookie Mock Draft 3.0: Round 2

Mock Drafts / By /

The DFF Army banded together for another 12-team full PPR Superflex rookie mock draft! This time we are post-combine and pro-day, but pre-NFL Draft. Check out every second-round selection below and each writer’s reasoning behind their pick. Stay tuned for rounds three and four dropping over the next few days. 

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2022 DFF SF Rookie Mock Draft 3.0: Round 1

Mock Drafts / By /

The DFF Army banded together for another 12-team full PPR Superflex rookie mock draft! This time we are post-combine and pro-day, but pre-NFL Draft. Check out every first-round selection below and each writer’s reasoning behind their pick. Stay tuned for rounds two, three, and four dropping over the next few days.

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Adjusting the Ranks: Psych Ward’s 2022 Rookie Rankings

Rookie / By /

We have a mantra at Dynasty Football Factory that has propelled a focus on consistent construction and evaluation of our dynasty rosters: #AlwaysBeBuilding. My rankings are built with the same forward direction. I aspire to be as transparent as possible in my process to provide you with a better understanding of how to value players. These rankings will be continuously updated to reflect an ever-improving player evaluation process. Allow me to walk you through some of the essential anchors I base these rankings around.

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Pre-Combine 2022 Rookie Positional Rankings – QB

Rookie / By /

Your author has broken down his pre-combine rookie rankings into positional rankings with tier designations to help you better view the dynasty rookie draft landscape. It is important to remember these rankings are created with fantasy football purposes in mind. We will dive eight players deep with the QB and TE positions and ten players deep with the RB and WR positions. Up first, the QB position is detailed for the upcoming 2022 NFL Draft. 

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Rookie Stock Report: Week 3

Dynasty / By /

Elijah Mitchell is RB1 in San Francisco if he’s healthy. Sermon didn’t enter the game until Mitchell left it with a shoulder injury, then he left with a concussion. The entire offense struggled against an Eagles’ defense that looks legitimate against the run once again, so the 17 carries with limited efficiency are still encouraging to see. Mitchell will be a must-start in all formats while healthy until Sermon does enough to take over, or Jeff Wilson comes back to take the starting role. Most coaches stick with the younger hot hands over veterans back from injury.

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Robby Anderson

2021 Projections: Carolina Panthers

Dynasty / By /

The Panthers have typically been a run-heavy team in years past. This is due to them having Cam Newton and a revolving door at QB. Now that they have a stable passer in Darnold I think they will throw more often. In 2020 they had a pass to rush play ratio of 1.35 which is exactly league average. For 2021 I have them bumping up to a 1.41 ratio. As for their rush-to-pass touchdown ratio they have had a very low one of .85 in 2019 and .84 in 2020. Typically this sort of thing regresses to the league mean of 1.82, and I find it unlikely that we will see this low of a ratio again. So, for 2021 I am giving them a ratio of 1.25. Now let us look at what these trends do to the individual players.

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Post-Rookie Draft Waiver Targets

Rookie / By /

Each season in dynasty leagues there are post-rookie draft waiver targets that provide a tremendous value for owners who were savvy or lucky enough to find them on their roster. Some provide an immediate “home-run” return like James Robinson did last season. Others make great taxi squad stashes that provide value later and might be tradeable for better assets (think Boston Scott, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Allen Lazard, Preston Williams, Collin Johnson, etc.). The majority will fall flat as expected.

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DFF Draft Coverage: Jaelon Darden to the Buccaneers

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

Jaelon Darden is one of your annual small-school stories where an incredible athlete, who was overlooked by large programs, emerges. Darden was a high school QB, so he possesses basic knowledge about reading coverages and finding openings in the defense. He played in all 14 games as a backup WR during his true freshman season compiling 281 yards and three TDs on 32 receptions, while also contributing as a punt and kick returner. While he still returned punts, Darden focused on offense as a sophomore, hauling in 48 receptions for 575 yards and four TDs. 

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Pro Day Round-Up

Dynasty / By /

Today is March 11, 2021, this is important because we are less than a week away from Free Agency. On March 17th we will likely find out where players such as JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kenny Golladay, Aaron Jones, Will Fuller, Curtis Samuel, Corey Davis, Todd Gurley, Marvin Jones Jr., Kenyan Drake, T.Y. Hilton, A.J. Green, and Hunter Henry will land. There are 43 days until the NFL Draft, and in most years we would have the NFL Combine to overreact to, however, as you know the NFL Combine was canceled due to the pandemic. Although we do not get to see all of the relevant players get their testing measurables in the same conditions, we still will get good data from the school’s Pro-Days. 

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Rookie Stock Market: Week 1

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

What really sets apart dynasty fantasy football from redraft football is the constant and never-ending ebb and flow of player values, specifically young players and rookies. Increasing the overall value of your team happens when you sell high and buy low, living by the classic stock market analogy. One way to having a truly stacked roster is getting out in front of young players and rookies before they blow up and become a real force in the league and an asset to your dynasty team. The point of this weekly article is to monitor the values of rookies each week identifying risers, fallers, buys, and sells, helping you come out ahead in the “Rookie Stock Market”, setting your team up for long term success.

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Landing Spot Ramifications

Dynasty / By /

It should be noted that Kingsbury’s offense wouldn’t be able to do the same things without a player like Murray. Josh Rosen wouldn’t be breaking off big runs and creating a ton of separation for his receivers with his legs. Murray allows the team to play an entirely different style than they could with other quarterbacks. Would Murray have been on track to be so successful if he had landed with another team? Who knows, but we can be sure he probably wouldn’t have gotten the same opportunity in such a strong situation.  

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Taxi Squad Spring Cleaning: Part 1

Dynasty / By /

In this series of articles, I’ll be taking a look at rookies from the 2019 class that can be removed from your taxi squads to make room for 2020 rookies. These are players that all have little to no dynasty value, but those dynasty owners selected in at least some 2019 rookie drafts. I’ll reference my 2019 rookie rankings from late May to give an idea of where I valued these players. My rankings are for a 1QB, PPR format.

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Buy, Sell, or Hold: Rookie Running Back Edition

Dynasty / By /

Buy: Anthony McFarland
When a 4-star running back comes into college with 20+ offers, he definitely does not go unnoticed, but due to the laughing stock that was this Maryland football team in 2019, Anthony McFarland seems to be forgotten. McFarland’s data does not pop off the page as he only had two years of experience, but while watching the film he looks to be one of the best backs in this class.

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