Stonk Down
Quarterback
Zach Wilson
The Zach Wilson Buy-Window is wide open, folks. Belichick and the gang dismantled the rookie-led Jets’ offense for a 25-6 win on the road. The Patriots’ defense picked off Wilson four times and limited the QB to only 210 yards. Wilson looked confident to a fault and repeatedly relied on his arm to try and force passes where they shouldn’t have gone. Despite the mental lapses and struggles with pressure, Wilson flashed his mobility and arm talent and was able to extend several plays. The Jets are a season or so from being competitive but I still believe the rookie has all the tools to be the guy this team needs him to be.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Buy
Trevor Lawrence
It’s looking like the rest of the world is waking up to the idea that Urban Meyer isn’t a good NFL coach and people are hitting the panic button on the Jaguars. Trevor Lawrence turned in an ugly two-pick performance in Week 2 against a Denver defense that held him under 200 yards. Yikes. The Broncos do have a good defense for what it’s worth, but the lack of production with even garbage time seems alarming. The entire roster usage has been wrong from the jump and the current offensive scheme can’t even get a YAC stud like Laviska Shenault to produce more than -2 yards on seven targets. The buying window for teams with room for patience should be open. There are much better matchups down the road against Arizona, Cincinnati, and Tennessee, so I’d be aggressive sooner rather than later.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Yes. You might want to field offers for other pieces you may want, and you may be able to get aggressive and get a decent deal if you want to buy
Mac Jones
Mac Jones didn’t do anything wrong to lead the Patriots to his first NFL win, but we did see his floor. We always knew that Jones offered no rushing upside and the Patriots aren’t afraid to run the football which leads to the worst-case scenario for anybody that isn’t Zach Wilson, fortunately. The Patriots didn’t need Jones to do more since they controlled the game with a stout defense that gave the offense a short field to work with. Damien Harris and James White were able to get it done on the ground. Jones is a “safe” Super Flex QB that you feel has a good situation to play for a few seasons if you want stability.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Buy
Running Back
Trey Sermon
It’s starting to feel like Elijah Mitchell will be the guy as long as he plays. Sermon didn’t even see the field until Mitchell left the game, then he fumbled after taking a blow that put him in concussion protocol. Sermon has been the one injured back poised to play this weekend, so I wouldn’t wash my hands with him yet due to the boom potential in this system
Buy or Sell the Dip: Buy
Kenneth Gainwell
Kenny Gainwell didn’t replicate his Week 1 production, but the touches are still encouraging. The Eagles struggled as a whole against the 49ers, so I don’t think his modest Week 2 output was an indictment on the rookie’s talent. Miles Sanders is the clear lead back, but Gainwell has a defined role as the change of pace pass-catcher. Gainwell is looking guaranteed to get double-digit touches every week, with passing upside that puts him along the same value as Nyheim Hines or James White.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Buy
Rhamondre Stevenson
Stevenson sat in the dog house as a healthy scratch, but I don’t care because the Patriots know the talent they have in this young backfield. Neither Damien Harris nor James White will be around forever, so I want the younger talents stashed for when they’re gone while they’re cheap.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Buy
Ty’Son Williams
The Ravens have a true committee without J.K. Dobbins. That’s not great news for anybody hoping Williams would be a surefire RB2 in Baltimore’s backfield. His usage and lack of goal-line touches are relegating him to more of a long-term flex option than an RB2. Williams looks like the most explosive RB of the group but keeps making mistakes with handoffs and pass protection. Williams’ value is incredibly low beyond this season, so I’d sell him for whatever you can get.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Sell
Larry Rountree
Justin Jackson is still around and rookie Larry Rountree took a backseat as Austin Ekeler’s backup. This is a murky role that nobody has locked and Rountree has low draft stock and an even lower athletic score. I don’t consider Rountree more than a high-end throw-in for a trade that will clog my bench with his low upside. It’s hard to feel comfortable ever starting him unless there are injuries.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Sell…if you can anyway.
Wide Receiver
Amon-Ra St. Brown
There are even more injuries to the Lions’ receiver room and Amon-Ra St. Brown still hasn’t taken advantage of the opportunity. He’s only getting around 60% of the snap percentage and isn’t producing when he is on the field. T.J. Hockenson is the WR1 and everyone else is secondary. Couple that with Jared Goff’s limitations and you have a basement-level floor, so Detroit’s “WR2” has little value. I’d want to move on from St. Brown in lieu of someone with higher upside.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Sell
Anthony Schwartz
I hope you sold Schwartz when you had the chance because the sell-high window might be closed for now. Schwartz has had 55% of the target share in a run-heavy offense over two games and failed to produce in Week 2. He also undercut a route that caused an interception that could’ve put him in the doghouse. It’s a correctable rookie mistake, but a mistake that can cost him time on the field. Schwartz should see more time going forward with Jarvis Landry going on IR, but Landry and Schwartz play different roles so this isn’t a guarantee. Use him as a piece to hunt more stable value elsewhere.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Sell
HODL (Hold on for Dear Life)
Quarterback
Trey Lance
Just be patient.
Running Back
Javonte Williams
Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon are still splitting snaps down the middle. The rookie is much more effective on the ground, while Gordon is getting the receiving work. It’s not that Williams isn’t effective in the passing game, because he’s a great pass blocker that could get the opportunity for dump-offs. His running efficiency should give him the opportunity to take over the backfield and find the endzone sooner than later.
Wide Receiver
Terrace Marshall Jr.
D.J. Moore is the clear alpha poised for a breakout in Carolina, but Terrace Marshall’s situation is just begging for the right matchup for a boom. Marshall is still getting just under 55% of the snap share with most of his targets coming in scoring territory, but they haven’t connected for a score. Christian McCaffrey suffered an injury on Thursday Night Football that could leave some room for Marshall to be on the field more often. Furthermore, Darnold will have time to push the ball further down the field against a porous defense with a weaker pass rush and all the Panther receivers can get higher quality targets. There’s no way you’re letting him off your roster for cheap.
Elijah Moore
Fun fact: Elijah Moore and Corey Davis both have 12 targets behind Braxton Berrios’ 18 through two weeks. As mentioned above, the Jets aren’t a good team, but could finally start to break out with time and a good matchup. Berrios is exploding in the absence of Jamison Crowder, but this is more about teams focusing on taking away Davis and Moore and not on an indictment of theater two’s actual ability. Nothing beyond the development of Zach Wilson and the offensive line should worry you about Moore’s situation as he’s already seeing about 75% of snaps.
Jaylen Waddle
Tua Tagovailoa left the game early due to fractured ribs which caused the entire passing offense to suffer. Waddle made a mistake on special teams and muffed a punt to end the first half. However, he has clearly looked like the best receiver in this offense in Will Fuller’s absence. Fuller made his return to practice this Wednesday, so it’s still unclear how the pecking order between Waddle, Fuller, and DeVante Parker will play out. This shouldn’t matter to anybody because the Dolphins invested high draft capital in Waddle and Fuller is on a one-year deal. I expect Fuller to eat into Parker’s production the most, but a discount sale is in play if Waddle’s pace slows down because of Tua’s absence or Fuller’s reemergence.
Stonk Up
Quarterback
Davis Mills
It looks like the last two stock reports had some accurate predictions and Davis Mills will return more value than his preseason asking price with Tyrod Taylor‘s injury. Mills gets the start on Thursday and manages to take care of the football while throwing a pedestrian 168 yards and a touchdown against the best defense through two games. The rookie struggled out of the gate but settled as the game went on. Mills needs to learn to work through his progressions instead of fixating on his first read to be worth something for an NFL team to want to develop him further. There’s plenty of tools you’d like to see like arm strength to deliver passes with zip all over the field and modest mobility to extend a play, but Mills is still a massive project with very little experience in college or the pros. The Texans have proven to have a stout defense that can be relied on during the long rebuild and Taylor is hoping to be back in a few weeks, so don’t expect them to bring in anyone else to play over the rookie. Regardless, I’d want to sell the rookie for a team desperate for QB depth.
Buy or Sell High: Sell for anything you can
Running Back
Najee Harris
It’s officially time to worry about the entire Steelers’ offense. The rebuilt offensive line looks better in pass protection, but dismal in the run game. Najee Harris is barely averaging three yards per carry and got most of his production in the passing game. Volume is the key factor keeping Harris relevant as he’s still on the field for almost 100% of plays. It’s even worse that Ben Roethlisberger is dealing with injury again and seems truly washed. I have concerns about the future of this offense and don’t know how much value this gives Najee. It wouldn’t be a crazy idea to try and to shop Harris now to try a recoup value.
Buy or Sell the High: Tentatively selling.
Michael Carter
We’re finally seeing positive usage out of rookie Michael Carter. Tevin Coleman was the clear lead back during Week 1 but fell to third in the pecking order during Week 2. Both Carter and Johnson looked decent running against the Patriots, and Carter broke double-digit fantasy points in full PPR. The rookie RB looked explosive and showed the vision he displayed in college to make defenders miss in the open field. Denver will be another tough game for the Jets, but good matchups against the Titans and Falcons right after that make him worth a flex spot. We’ll keep monitoring Carter’s improvement as he inevitably takes over this backfield.
Buy or Sell High: Buy
Demetric Felton
Most of Demetric Felton’s production came from one play, but it’s exactly explosive plays like that can push him for more playing time. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will continue to lead the attack on the ground, but a real role for Felton can be in place as a receiver with Landry going on IR. The rookie is explosive after the catch and has plenty of time to grow into a more well-rounded player poised for a bigger role if Kareem Hunt leaves the team after 2022 and that could jack up his value.
Buy or Sell High: Buy
Wide Receiver
Dyami Brown
The Washington Football team trusts rookie wideout Dyami Brown enough to keep him on the field over 85% of the snaps and he’s starting to convert opportunity into production. Brown turned six targets into three receptions for 34 yards in Week 2 but still is only fourth in targets for the team. Washington is willing to throw the ball 40+ times and I’m willing to have a piece of that volume wherever I can get it. The longer Curtis Samuel is off the field, the more opportunity Brown has to solidify a role. I don’t think we’ve seen his value peak even for the season yet.
Buy or Sell High: Buy
Tight End
Kyle Pitts
Atlanta still looked bad in Week 2, but Kyle Pitts looked much better despite that. Pitts increased his efficiency and paced the Falcons for receiving yards and is the clear 1B option in the Falcons’ offense. It’s even more impressive he was able to pull this off against Tampa Bay. If Arthur Smith can pull this offense together, Pitts could easily be a top-five tight end option more times than not, but it’s still hard to view him as affordable just yet.
Buy or Sell High: Hold
Pat Freiermuth
It looks like Pat Freiermuth has overtaken fellow tight end Eric Ebron in the pecking order but unfortunately, this still makes him the fourth option in the passing game overall. The rookie is a talented player with tons of upside that is being hampered by poor offensive line and QB play like the rest of this offense. Patience is always needed for tight ends, so his modest production is still encouraging enough for me to want him on my rosters now since he has a clear role and talent to build on.
Buy or Sell High: Buy
To the Moon
Quarterback
Justin Fields
It’s finally happening! Unfortunately, it took an injury and not a good coaching decision to make this happen, but the entire football community has been dying to see the Bears have a real quarterback. Andy Dalton left Week 2 with a knee injury, and Fields stepped in to produce some inefficient snaps. This isn’t too concerning seeing as this week’s gameplan was tailored around Dalton. We should see that big arm and a better ground game from Fields with a full week of practice. This biggest test will be how he handles protecting himself against a tough Browns pass rush.
Running Back
Elijah Mitchell
Elijah Mitchell is RB1 in San Francisco if he’s healthy. Sermon didn’t enter the game until Mitchell left it with a shoulder injury, then he left with a concussion. The entire offense struggled against an Eagles’ defense that looks legitimate against the run once again, so the 17 carries with limited efficiency are still encouraging to see. Mitchell will be a must-start in all formats while healthy until Sermon does enough to take over, or Jeff Wilson comes back to take the starting role. Most coaches stick with the younger hot hands over veterans back from injury.
Wide Receiver
Rondale Moore
Most savvy Dynasty managers have been expecting this breakout game and it’s finally happened with a 7/114/1 stat line against a weak Vikings secondary. Moore still doesn’t have the ideal snap share, but Arizona is finding ways to get the ball in his hands when he is on the field. Moore will be a top Rookie WR if he ever gets above 60% snap share.
Which rookies are you watching? Let me know and find more content on Twitter @SportsJag.
