Rookie Stock Market: Week 1

Rookie Stock Market – Week 1

What really sets apart dynasty fantasy football from redraft football is the constant and never-ending ebb and flow of player values, specifically young players and rookies. Increasing the overall value of your team happens when you sell high and buy low, living by the classic stock market analogy. One way to having a truly stacked roster is getting out in front of young players and rookies before they blow up and become a real force in the league and an asset to your dynasty team. The point of this weekly article is to monitor the values of rookies each week identifying risers, fallers, buys, and sells, helping you come out ahead in the “Rookie Stock Market”, setting your team up for long term success.

Risers

After just one week of play, identifying risers is almost purely speculation. There is no solid data to show a real rise in ADP but, based on what we saw in Week 1 and the ever-changing situations of NFL rosters, these are some players I believe will see their value rise in the coming weeks:

Jonathan Taylor RB – Colts

Week 1 Snap Shot:

The second-round pick out of Wisconsin is set to be a riser for 2 simple reasons.

1 – He looked pretty good in Week 1

2 – His main competition for rushes is now out for the season.

As presented in the Week 1 Snap Shot, Jonathan Taylor managed 89 total yards on just a 35% snap share. That is incredibly impressive for a rookie’s first-ever game. Taylor did most of his damage through the air, which many did not see coming. I would not bet on Taylor regularly seeing six targets a game, however, I would count on Taylor being more efficient on the ground. Expect Taylor to significantly improve upon his 2.4 YPC in Week 2, as his boots are now officially wet in the NFL waters. Being an efficient runner in college was not an issue for him (6.7 career YPC), so I am very confident he brings up that YPC moving forward.

With Marlon Mack now out for the season with a torn Achilles, Jonathan Taylor is now stepping into the lead back role. I expect Taylor’s snap share to jump up into the 60% range. This increase in snap should have a direct correlation to his rush attempts each week. For RBs, opportunity is often king. When you pair this with a talented and efficient player of Jonathan Taylor’s caliber, fireworks are in the near future. A pretty simple equation to predict fantasy success is OPPORTUNITY + EFFICIENCY = PRODUCTION and I believe Taylor is teed up almost perfectly for production. 

Joshua Kelley RB – Chargers

Week 1 Snap Shot:

All offseason the debate was, “Can Austin Ekeler be a workhorse back?”, followed by “Who will be the 1B to Ekeler’s 1A in Los Angeles?”. After Week 1, I don’t believe we have a definitive answer to the former, but we do have a clear leader in the latter. While Justin Jackson was dealing with a quad injury, Joshua Kelley took the 1B reins and ran with it, literally! As noted in the Week 1 Snap Shot, Kelley took 12 carries and looked good doing so, with 5 YPC clip and a TD to show. Despite playing just 18 offensive snaps, they handed him the ball on 66% of them. I believe that means the Chargers trust him as a ball carrier and like him a goal-line back (something he did well in college with 12 TDs in each of his 2 seasons at UCLA). If Ekeler isn’t truly a workhorse back, and Kelley is the 1B of the Chargers backfield, we could see the value of Joshua Kelly skyrocket.

Laviska Shenault Jr. WR – Jaguars

Week 1 Snap Shot:

The second-round pick out of Colorado made his presence known in Week 1. Despite only playing 62% of the offensive snaps, Shenault out targeted DJ Chark 4 to 3. The rookie even outscored Chark 13.7 to 11.5. I do not predict Shenault will regularly out produce Chark, but it is encouraging to see him look good in his first-ever NFL action. Laviska had some buzz going into the season and I only expect that to now grow, especially if he can increase his snap share into the 70% range. It is also encouraging to see Shenault get two carries. In a backfield without a proven bellcow, I believe Laviska could continue to see carries. He is a capable runner with ideal size, standing at 6’1 227 pounds. The hope is Shenault can be an underneath threat and YAC monster while Chark stretches the field. 

Fallers

Like the “Risers” there is no hard data or trends to go off of here, considering there has only been one 1 game. However, I believe a couple of players could begin to fall in ADP and perceived value by failing to live up to their offseason hype.

Bryan Edwards WR – Raiders

Week 1 Snap Shot:

Heading into Week 1, Bryan Edwards had a ton of hype. He drew a Davante Adams comparison from Derek Carr, looked good in Training Camp, and was then named a starter. Expectations were very high and then Edwards had a less than an impressive debut. As seen in the Snap Shot, Bryan had just one target, for one catch and nine yards. What makes that even more disappointing is his 75% snap rate, meaning he was on the field and Carr simply wasn’t targeting him. Due to the lofty expectations and a complete flop in Week 1, Edwards stock is almost certain to drop.

Antonio Gibson RB – The Washington Football Team

Week 1 Snap Shot:

Similarly to Bryan Edwards, the expectations and hype were sky-high for Antonio Gibson. The third-round pick came into the league as an athletic freak with versatility and efficiency as both a rusher and pass-catcher. The problem Gibson was his lack of prolonged production at Memphis, so projecting this workload and usage for Washington was difficult. However, after the release of Derrius Guice and Adrian Peterson, the backfield looked to be Gibson’s to lose. Like Edwards, Gibson’s NFL debut was not what many had hoped. Gibson logged just a 26% snap share and 11 total touches for 46 yards. The yardage is not terrible but what really stings is seeing J.D. McKissic’s and Peyton Barber’s snap shares of 44% and 41% respectively. Barber was the primary ball carrier, out rushing Gibson 17 to 9, and McKissic was the primary receiving back, out targeting Gibson 5 to 2. For the moment Antonio Gibson seems to be a peg without a hole in this offense.

Buys

As mentioned in the intro, dynasty player values are a lot like stocks, and it is usually best to buy low and sell high. However, sometimes you don’t have the chance to truly “buy low”, but buying a rising stock can still be profitable if the value continues to rise. So I am sure there will be times when rising stocks will be on my “Buys” list, but this week it is not the case.

Bryan Edwards

This week, the “buy: is also a “falling” stock I outlined above. The main reasons he is still a buy are Edward’s high snap share in Week 1, and his extremely strong analytical profile. In Week 1, Edwards tied Jerry Jeudy for the second-highest snap share of all rookies with 75%, trailing only CeeDee Lamb who had 82%. I do not see why Edwards would see a drop in snaps, as he did not have any drops or have any unforgivable plays that I saw. WRs are allowed to have a bad game, especially rookies. I do not think it is time to panic on Edwards, but I would suggest you see if other owners have. The other reason I believe Bryan Edwards is a buy is his how high I was on him post-draft. Edwards was my WR5 in this class, primarily due to his metrics. 

Bryan Edwards is the only player on record with a breakout age of 17. On top of that, he has an elite dominator rating. He has the profile of an early producer in the NFL and is built for long term success with his big frame, and exceptional ball skills and body control he shows on film.

Edwards was going in the second round of most rookie drafts this year, but his hype seemed to takeoff the past two months, driving his price up in the minds of most. However after a bad Week 1 outing there is now a hole forming in the balloon that is carrying up his value. I would gladly buy him for a 2021 2nd. I would see if an owner has soured on Bryan Edwards after his poor Week 1 performance and is willing to jump ship for a future second-round pick.

Sells

As referenced a couple of times, since it is just Week 1 in the books, and there are no real trends, so I do not feel comfortable advising anyone to actively look to “sell” a rookie solely off of Week 1 and offseason news. Maybe next week after we have more data, I can identify a sell or two, but at this point, it is just too early.

Thanks for reading the article! You can follow me on Twitter @RookieWhisper for more dynasty, devy, and redraft content.