Dynasty Rookie Round-Up Week 1
In this ~FREE~ DFF article, @joshreedy5 reviews the 2026 rookie performances from Week 1 and talks dynasty value moving forward.
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dynasty rookies
Is the 2026 Rookie Class Bad — or Are We Just Early?
@Paul_Ryan15 makes his DFF debut, breaking down the 2026 rookie class. Find out which rookies are worth buying before the market catches up in this ~FREE~ DFF article.
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Late Round Dynasty Rookie Draft Gems
Eli Heidenreich is an off-the-radar player from Navy who played in one of the most unique offensive systems in college football, notorious for amplifying a singular player’s productivity.
Heidenreich has some eye-popping analytics. Yards per route run is one of the strongest singular predictors of future fantasy production. On its own, YPRR carries a 0.43 correlation when using current-year data to project next year’s performance. Heidenreich’s 4.73 yards per route run is easily tops in this class, well above the wide receivers who were selected in the first round of the NFL Draft.
His draft capital was poor. But he was drafted. And his Pittsburgh landing spot was pretty solid. Kenneth Gainwell was the RB 20 overall in fantasy points per game last year. Heidenreich has a shot at a similar role eventually.
Steelers beat writer, Mark Kaboly, posted on X, “ I am not saying that Eli Heidenreich should even be mentioned in the same breath as Christian McCaffrey because C-Mac is elite and a different breed … but you can’t help but notice similarities in how they move around a football field. (yeah, this is going to be taken out of context, oh well).”
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My Top-Owned Dynasty Rookies
This weekend, we wrapped up my final dynasty rookie draft of the offseason (outside of my home dynasty league, which drafts during the preseason). With rookies now rostered in 17 of my 18 leagues, I thought it was a good time to discuss my top-owned dynasty rookies.
Using the “exposure” feature in the Dynasty Control Room, I’m able to see my ownership percentage of every single fantasy player. Being a “portfolio manager” in 18 leagues, this feature is especially useful, showing me who I need to invest more heavily in, as well as the guys I should look to lower my exposure on. The tool also shows you which players DFF expert consensus is above and below market on, to give you an idea of whether you’re investing in the right players.
With that, let’s take a look at my top 5 most-owned rookies right now.
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Episode 16: Tommy D Calls Out Frank | Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft
In this episode of Always Be Scouting, @DffFrankPanthro and producer Tommy D hop into a three-round dynasty rookie mock draft and talk player values.
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Building My Dynasty: A Full Startup Draft Breakdown
In today’s article, I’m breaking down my most recent dynasty startup draft, covering everything from my draft strategy to player values and roster construction. The goal is to leave you with a few ideas you can take into your own startup drafts this offseason. In this particular draft, I was able to construct a team I believe can compete in Year 1 while being built for long-term dominance. With the help of the DFF Dynasty Control Room, I was able to maximize value by reviewing consensus big boards and checking “top players available” with every pick. According to DFF consensus, it paid off, as I finished with the best draft class in the league.
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“Colossus Jr.” 2026 Final Rookie RB1 Analytical Model Rankings
After years of proven success with my WR1 Analytical Model outperforming NFL Draft Capital at predicting future fantasy success of rookie wide receiver prospects, I unveiled the RB1 Analytical Model last year. Similar to my long-running WR1 model, which you can find here, this RB1 model was developed using a recipe of the most predictive advanced college statistics that prior NFL fantasy superstars exhibited.
The goal of these analytical models is to outperform draft capital, as it should. After all, fantasy managers are trying to accumulate the most fantasy points. NFL teams are trying to win football games. For example, in 2024, Bucky Irving and Tyrone Tracy were drafted 6th and 12th in the NFL draft among running backs. The model ranked them 4th and 6th, respectively.
You can find last year’s 2025 RB1 post-draft published model here. Our model was largely in line with draft capital, with 7 of the first 8 players selected in the NFL draft also in the model’s top 7. A big outlier came a little later. Our model ranked Jacory Croskey-Merritt 11th overall, despite the NFL drafting him 26th among all running backs.
Now on to the 2026 class.
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Episode 14: Mailbag + Winners, Losers, and Biggest Reaches of the NFL Draft
In this week’s episode of Always Be Scouting, @DffFrankPanthro and @John_mancuso5 cover mailbag questions and give their draft grades and opinions for each NFL team.
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Draft Day Afterparty: ABS x Pro Draft Scouting 3 Round Post Draft Mock with Luigi Tedone
In this episode of Always Be Scouting, @DffFrankPanthro and @Devy_Luigi of prodraftscouting.com discuss the 2026 rookie draft class and hop into a 3-Round Dynasty Rookie Mock draft.
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Projecting Quarterback Success for Dynasty
I am trying to help us find ways to avoid the bust at quarterback, especially in rookie drafts. This is the cheapest most of these quarterbacks will ever be, but if you miss on one and spend a first-round pick on them, it could set you back even further.
I am looking at quarterbacks drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft and breaking them down into 4 tiers from 2015 to 2025.
I call the 1st tier the “green tier”. These are the quarterbacks who score a 90 or higher in my model and went to a Power 5 school. My model includes a film grade from Lance Zierlein, fantasy points per game in college, and their passing touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio.
There have been 37 quarterbacks drafted since 2015 in the first round, but only 13 ended up in tier 1, the green tier.
Below are the names of those 13 guys.
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2026 Dynasty Rookie RB1 Analytical Model: Rankings 5 to 1
After years of proven success with my WR1 Analytical Model outperforming NFL Draft Capital at predicting future fantasy success of rookie wide receiver prospects, I unveiled the RB1 Analytical Model last year. Similar to my long-running WR1 model, which you can find here, this RB1 model was developed using a recipe of the most predictive advanced college statistics that prior NFL fantasy superstars exhibited.
The goal of these analytical models is to outperform draft capital, as it should. After all, fantasy managers are trying to accumulate the most fantasy points. NFL teams are trying to win football games. For example, in 2024, Bucky Irving and Tyrone Tracy were drafted 6th and 12th in the NFL draft among running backs. The model ranked them 4th and 6th, respectively.
You can find last year’s 2025 RB1 post-draft published model here. Our model was largely in line with draft capital, with 7 of the first 8 players selected in the NFL draft also in the model’s top 7. A big outlier came a little later. Our model ranked Jacory Croskey-Merritt 11th overall, despite the NFL drafting him 26th among all running backs.
Now on to the 2026 class.
This 2026 running back draft class isn’t good. It isn’t bad. No. It is downright atrocious. In these model series, I can typically find 15 “draftable” running backs and wide receivers with ease. Last year, 26 running backs were drafted. This year, even with a terrible overall 2026 class, I don’t have 15 running backs with a “draft-worthy” grade.
You can find the rankings for players 15 to 11 here.
You can find the rankings for players 10 to 6 here.
5. Emmett Johnson, Nebraska | RB1 Model Score: 38.0
Based on historical comps, Emmett Johnson’s RB1 Model score of 38.0 gives him a 34.1% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
Historical Players With Similar RB1 Model Scores:
The Good
Outside of Jeremiyah Love, Emmett Johnson seems the most likely to secure a role for an NFL team. Why? He is an excellent receiving back. He led all running backs in this class with 30.8 receiving yards per game and 3.8 receptions per game. This earned him 25 points towards his overall RB1 score.
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2026 Dynasty Rookie RB1 Analytical Model: Rankings 15 to 11
Using his proprietary ranking model, @force_fantasy reveals the rookie RBs ranked 15 through 11 for dynasty fantasy football purposes.
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Meet Your Round 2 Rookie Draft Steal at WR
We’re less than a month out from the NFL Draft, and by now you’ve probably gotten the full rundown on every rookie prospect worth knowing. But here’s the thing: winning rookie drafts isn’t about knowing who everyone else likes. It’s about finding the guys the dynasty community is sleeping on. And today, I’m confident I’ve found your Round 2 steal at wide receiver. That receiver is Antonio Williams out of Clemson. Right now, the dynasty community is treating him like a virtual zero. He’s the WR139 overall and the 31st overall Superflex rookie prospect on KeepTradeCut, a crowdsourced dynasty ranking site. My ranks? WR37 overall. 11th overall Superflex dynasty rookie asset. That’s a pretty absurd discrepancy. So let me explain exactly why I’m so high on Williams and why you should be too. High School Williams was a highly-touted prospect coming out of high school, ranked as a four-star recruit and the WR6 in his class on 247Sports. He finished his senior year at Dutch Fork with 80 receptions for 1,569 yards and 14 touchdowns. Williams was also a tremendous punt returner in high school, averaging 26.2 yards on 29 career returns. Dutch Fork was one of the strongest teams in South Carolina, winning three state championships during Williams’ time there. He was selected as an Under Armour All-American. Williams received offers from many top programs across the country, but elected to stay close to home and signed with Clemson, under HC Dabo Swinney. Clemson (2022-25) Williams was an immediate producer for Clemson, leading the team in receptions and yards […]
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2026 Rookie WR1 Analytical Model, Version 1.0: Rankings 15 to 11
Gain an edge in dynasty with @force_fantasy’s WR1 model. We reveal the data-driven rankings for WR 11-15 in the 2026 rookie class.
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Meet the 2026 Rookie RB With Elite Contact Balance
Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt is one of the more predictive analytical statistics for running backs for future fantasy success. Over the past three years, the top 6 running backs with the highest college career missed tackles forced per attempt rate are: Bijan Robinson – 39.3% Trey Benson – 39.2% Tyrone Tracy – 38.5% Ashton Jeanty – 37.8% Bucky Irving – 36.2% For a singular metric, that is a nice hit rate. Then how is it, in an absolutely horrible running back class overall, there is a prospect with an otherworldly 46.9% missed tackles forced per attempt career rate that no one is talking about? Fam, meet Terion Stewart. So why haven’t you heard of Stewart? Well, for one, he was used sparingly at Virginia Tech this past season. Before that, he played four years for Bowling Green. Before you say, “Ahhh, Bowling Green,” well, remember this is the same college that just produced Harold Fannin Jr. The MAC is definitely not the SEC, but it is a competitive conference. While at Bowling Green, Stewart never eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing, staying under the radar of the best teams. He did rush for 917 and 753 his last two years there, however. The Hokies brought Stewart over for his final college season. Stewart suffered a series of injuries that forced him into a walking boot in August, which was then followed by a shoulder injury in October. He finished the year with a mediocre 82 attempts for 469 yards. Oh, and remember how you were concerned about Stewart compiling those stats […]
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Seth McGowan: The Long Road Back
Seth McGowan’s path to the 2026 NFL Draft is one of the more unusual stories in this class. Early in his career at Oklahoma, he looked like the next talented running back to come through that program. Instead, a legal incident nearly ended his career before it really started. What followed was a long road back through smaller programs and multiple stops before he finally returned to the SEC and put himself back on the NFL radar. A Promising Start That Fell Apart In 2020, McGowan showed real promise at Oklahoma. The former four-star recruit played in eight games as a freshman, rushing for 370 yards and catching 13 passes for 201 yards. His 143 total yards in the Cotton Bowl showed the kind of playmaking ability that had people believing he could become the next productive Oklahoma running back. That momentum ended in April of 2021. McGowan was arrested following an armed robbery investigation and was dismissed from the Oklahoma program. He later pleaded guilty to felony larceny, served three months in jail, and received a year of probation. Just like that, his football future was suddenly in doubt. The Long Road Back McGowan did not play football for two seasons while rebuilding his life and career. His first stop was Texas College, an NAIA program where he never appeared in a game. From there, he transferred to Butler Community College in 2023, where he played 6 games and began rebuilding his football reputation. In 2024, McGowan returned to the FBS level at New Mexico State. The talent was […]
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Two-Round Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft (With Landing Spots)
@jim_DFF reveals his two-round dynasty rookie draft selections based on a recent NFL mock draft from A to Z Sports.
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Eli Stowers: The Tight End Built for the Modern Game
Modern tight ends have one job above everything else: catch the football. Blocking matters. Athleticism matters. But if you can’t be trusted in traffic, none of it plays. Eli Stowers gets that. And it’s why his transition from quarterback to tight end has turned into one of the most impressive developments in college football. Stowers didn’t just convert positions. He became the focal point of Vanderbilt’s offense. In 2025, he led all FBS tight ends in receiving yards, and he did it by winning the same way every NFL tight end has to win: hands, feel, toughness, and consistency. At 6’4” and around 235-239 pounds, Stowers isn’t built like an old-school in-line blocker. He’s built like a modern weapon. And he plays like one. Production That Matters The breakout didn’t come out of nowhere. It was built year by year. In 2025, Stowers caught 62 passes for 769 yards, the most receiving yards by any tight end in the country. He averaged 12.4 yards per catch and played all 12 games as a centerpiece of the offense. The year before, he put up 49 catches for 638 yards and 5 touchdowns, earning First Team All-SEC honors and Mackey Award semifinalist recognition. Across three seasons at Vanderbilt and New Mexico State, he finished with 146 catches, 1,773 yards, and 11 touchdowns. That’s not gadget production. That’s real usage. How Stowers Wins Stowers catches the football first. That’s the foundation. He has strong, reliable hands and shows comfort working through traffic. He doesn’t panic when bodies are around him. He secures the […]
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DFF Dynasty Mock Draft: Dominating the Turn at 1.12 (Part 2)
@DffFrankPanthro covers his picks from Rounds 8-15 in our recent dynasty startup mock draft, talking draft strategy from 12 slot.
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Cole Payton: The Small-School Quarterback You Need to Know
Cole Payton is one of those names that sneaks up on you if you’re not paying attention. Small school. Limited starts. Left-handed quarterback. Easy to overlook if you’re skimming box scores. But once you actually watch him and dig into the season he just put together, it’s hard not to come away impressed. Payton just finished a record-setting year at North Dakota State and put himself firmly on the NFL radar for the 2026 Draft. He’s not a finished product, but the upside is very real, especially in a quarterback class that doesn’t have many players separating themselves. A Late Bloomer Who Made It Count This past season was Payton’s first full year as the starter, and he made the most of it. He led North Dakota State to a 12–1 record and played with a level of efficiency you don’t usually see, regardless of level. He completed nearly 72% of his passes, threw for 2,719 yards with 16 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions, and consistently took care of the football. What really jumps out is how clean the overall production looks when you factor in what he did with his legs. Payton rushed for 777 yards and 13 touchdowns, averaging 5.7 yards per carry. He wasn’t scrambling just to survive. Designed runs, short-yardage toughness, red-zone scores. He became a legitimate problem for defenses once plays broke down. By the end of the year, he finished as the highest-graded quarterback in the FCS and set school records for efficiency and total offense per play. That doesn’t happen by accident. How […]
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