Sleeper Series: N’Keal Harry

Methodology and Intro

After writing my redraft team breakdown series, I decided to start a new series as we approach the 2020 fantasy season. Every week, or probably more often than that, I’m going to bring you one fantasy sleeper representing a massive value in 2020 redraft leagues. All the links to previous articles are at the bottom of the article. In the first article, I detailed my methodology behind this series, so go back and read that piece if you haven’t yet!

Now, it’s time for another wide receiver, this time a second-year player, N’Keal Harry. The Patriots recently released veteran Mohamed Sanu, which caused me to think of Harry and his potential opportunity in 2020. I mentioned that Sanu could be a cap casualty in April, but it’s interesting to see the Patriots make a move so close to the start of the season. Let’s dive into what Sanu’s release means for Harry as a sleeper.

Past Production

Here are Harry’s full NFL stats.

The Patriots drafted Harry with the 32nd overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. At the time, Harry joined a relatively empty depth chart, with only Julian Edelman as serious competition on the team. The team had also recently lost Rob Gronkowski to a temporary retirement, leaving them devoid of pass-catchers.

However, throughout the offseason, Harry struggled in Patriots camp and eventually landed on injured reserve with an ankle injury. He missed the first nine games, as the Patriots cycled through acquisitions like Josh Gordon, Antonio Brown, and Mohamed Sanu and internal options Phillip Dorsett and Jakobi Meyers. None of those players impressed, with Gordon and Brown falling off the roster and the others playing poorly. 

By the time Harry returned, the Patriots sorely needed his big-body receiver skills and contested-catch ability. Unfortunately, Harry never gained the trust of Tom Brady, only averaging about 3.5 targets and 1.7 receptions per game. The Patriots did involve Harry in the running game, giving him five carries, which he converted into 49 yards. 

Overall, I believe that Brady didn’t want to use a rookie receiver that head coach Bill Belichick handpicked and that contributed to Harry’s struggles. Either way, rookie receivers that miss multiple games with injuries and then return don’t tend to succeed in fantasy or the NFL upon their return. I would have liked to have seen more from Harry as a rookie, but his 2019 season isn’t a death sentence for his future. I broke down Harry from a dynasty perspective in a WR buys article back in July if you want a closer look at his prospect profile and what it could mean for him going forward. 

The Prevailing Narrative

At this point, most casual fantasy owners aren’t particularly familiar with Harry. He didn’t register on their radars in 2019, so he’s out of sight, out of mind. The Patriots also now have Cam Newton as their quarterback instead of Brady, and most people look more toward their running game, not their receiving options.

Even if the focus goes toward the Patriots’ passing game, most people aren’t looking at Harry. Veteran Julian Edelman and receiving back James White are the higher-profile options there, and Harry is unproven. Therefore, Harry is going overlooked in 2020 drafts. He’s currently the WR66 and 180th overall player in FantasyPros consensus ADP.

2020 Outlook

Back in my June Patriots’ redraft preview, I didn’t have much hope for Harry as a sleeper. The Patriots still had Jarrett Stidham as their starting quarterback, and they hadn’t yet released Sanu. At the time, I had Harry as my WR53, pretty far off my radar.

Even now, I practically haven’t changed my ranking on Harry. He’s still only my WR54 and 136th overall player, actually slightly lower than I ranked him previously. However, I didn’t realize how far down the general public would rate Harry. 

After Sanu’s release, Harry has the secondary receiver role locked up, so he should see significant playing time and targets right away. Newton was just officially named the Patriots’ starting quarterback, and he has shown an affinity for big-bodied targets like Kelvin Benjamin in the past. The best part about drafting Harry as a sleeper is that you’ll know what you have in Week 1. He’s either going to have the role I’m projecting, or you can cut him from your rosters. That type of player is perfect as a redraft flier.

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.

Previous Articles: Intro + Hayden Hurst, Sony Michel, Sterling Shepard, Jamison Crowder, Allen Lazard, Brandon Aiyuk, Jerick McKinnon, Jalen Reagor, Chris Herndon, DeAndre Washington, Joshua Kelley, Randall Cobb