Methodology and Intro
After writing my redraft team breakdown series, I decided to start a new series as we approach the 2020 fantasy season. Every week, or probably more often than that, I’m going to bring you one fantasy sleeper representing a massive value in 2020 redraft leagues. All the links to previous articles are at the bottom of the article. In the first article, I detailed my methodology behind this series, so go back and read that piece if you haven’t yet!
Now, it’s time to jump into my first rookie running back of this sleeper series. Chargers’ running back Joshua Kelley is a strong sleeper candidate for 2020, and he could provide league-winning upside. Let me tell you why you should look Kelley’s way late in 2020 drafts.
Past Production
As a rookie, Kelley doesn’t have any previous NFL production. Kelley began his college career at FCS school UC Davis before transferring to UCLA. Here are his college statistics from UCLA.
| Year | Games | Carries | Rushing Yards | YPC | Rushing TDs | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Receiving TDs |
| 2018 | 11 | 225 | 1,243 | 5.5 | 12 | 27 | 193 | 0 |
| 2019 | 11 | 229 | 1,060 | 4.6 | 12 | 11 | 71 | 1 |
As you can see, Kelley received a workhorse role at UCLA, and he dominated the team’s carries. However, Kelley’s YPC mark is nothing impressive for an NFL prospect, which caused him to fall in the NFL Draft. Eventually, the Chargers selected Kelley with the 112th overall pick in the fourth round.
The Prevailing Narrative
Most casual fantasy football players know that Austin Ekeler is the star in the Chargers’ backfield. While most people also are aware that Melvin Gordon shared work with Ekeler in 2019, they might not be as knowledgeable about Kelley and Justin Jackson. Kelley wasn’t a high draft pick, so he’s going unnoticed.
FantasyPros ADP consensus has Kelley at RB66 and 241st overall, well outside of the draftable range. Fantasy owners aren’t interested in Kelley. In contrast, Jackson is going off the board at RB53 and 161st overall, far ahead of Kelley. Jackson flashed a bit in 2018 and 2019, so the ADP difference is likely solely based on name recognition.
2020 Outlook
Coincidentally, I’ve written redraft journey articles about both Ekeler and Gordon this offseason. In my article about Ekeler, I noted that he’s never been a workhorse back, and he’s succeeded with limited carry volume throughout his career. Ekeler topped out at 132 carries in 2019, and that happened with Gordon missing four games at the start of the season. Limiting Ekeler’s carries allows him to dominate in the passing game, where he caught 92 passes for 993 yards and eight touchdowns in 2019.
Conversely, the Chargers and head coach Anthony Lynn have always emphasized the running game. Gordon had a minimum of 13.5 carries/game in his three seasons with Lynn, despite playing alongside Ekeler. Lynn likes to create a two-back system, and both Gordon and Ekeler have produced for fantasy football whenever both have been healthy.
Back in June, I wrote my initial redraft preview for the Chargers. At the time, I preferred Kelley over Jackson, assuming that Kelley’s superior draft capital would win him the Gordon role. Kelley was my RB57 while Jackson came in at RB66. I said that I would avoid both players while waiting on camp reports to decide between the two.
When Chargers’ camp opened, Jackson got off to the stronger start. Initially, it looked like Jackson would keep the #2 role behind Ekeler, as Kelley took a while to develop as a rookie. Considering the shortened offseason, I’m not surprised that Kelley came along slowly and didn’t get many first-team reps at the beginning of camp.
However, recently, Kelley has emerged as the superior early-down back at Chargers’ camp. Kelley has recently received reps with the ones, on par with Jackson. Kelley looks like the more complete and more bruising back, making him the perfect complement to Ekeler. I fully believe that Kelley will play in Week 1 and win the secondary job shortly after that.
Based on that prediction, I now rank Kelley as my RB50 and as my 128th overall player. In comparison, Jackson is my RB58 and 163rd overall. As you see, I’ve raised both Kelley and Jackson in my rankings, as writing the Gordon article opened my eyes to the idea that at least one of them will produce flex numbers in 2020. I still don’t have complete confidence in Kelley, but I love him as a sleeper. If one of Kelley or Jackson went away, I’d rank the other inside flex range, around RB35. Therefore, Kelley provides extreme upside, especially considering his undrafted price.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
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