Recently, the DFF crew gathered for our annual redraft championship league. We took part in a 17-round PPR draft, with 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 2Flex, 1TE, 1D/ST as starters, and a 7-player bench. I had the eighth pick, which is familiar territory for me. Here’s how it went.
1.8 – Miles Sanders
The guys in this draft understand the value of taking running backs early. The first 10 picks were RBs. I wrote about the importance of leaving the first three rounds with two running backs in my guide to the 2020 draft, so I knew I’d be passing over Michael Thomas and Davante Adams for a running back. Sanders is a guy who has the potential to put up 2,000 yards from scrimmage this year. Doug Pederson’s history avoiding workhorse RBs is a bit concerning, but Sanders is an excellent receiver and was RB8 in PPR from week 11 on.
2.5 & 3.8 – Julio Jones & James Conner
This league loves running backs early. In addition to the first 10 picks being RBs, 14 of the first 16 were runners. At pick 17 overall, I took the third wide receiver off the board. Julio’s worst PPR finish in the last six years was WR7. He’s had at least 1,400 yards in each of those years while averaging 161 targets per season. The only other WR who offers that kind of floor is Michael Thomas. A guy who is as physically gifted and talented as Julio is not one you should is not one who you should fade just because he’s 31. Julio is a freak of nature.
While Julio is an incredibly safe pick, James Conner is a much riskier gamble. There are three running backs I like to target in the third: Todd Gurley, Chris Carson, and James Conner. Gurley and Carson actually were picked in the second round of this draft, so I felt lucky when Conner was there at pick 3.8. Conner has been steadily climbing my draft board all offseason. Mike Tomlin typically rides one running back, and I’m ready to bet that James Conner is that guy if healthy. He was RB6 in 2018. Getting him as the 18th running back drafted here is exactly the kind of gamble I’m willing to take.
4.5, 5.8, & 6.5 – A.J. Brown, DeVante Parker, & Marquise Brown
Did I just now realize that I took two players who share my last name in the fourth and sixth rounds? Yes… yes I did. But I love A.J. and Marquise Brown, and not just because of the shared surnames. A.J. Brown was a revelation last year. It took a bit for the Titans to figure out that Brown needed to be the focal point of their passing game but after their week 11 bye, A.J. Brown was the single best WR in standard scoring. Brown demolished teams once he started seeing more of the field. He averaged 17.1 standard points in Weeks 12-17. That’s 2.1 more than the second-place WR in that time frame, DeVante Parker (more on him soon). But this is a PPR draft, you say? AJB was the second-best WR in PPR in that time frame, behind only Michael Thomas. This kid is special.
Compared to A.J. Brown, Marquise Brown had a disappointing rookie year. Hollywood was drafted in the first round and exploded onto the NFL scene in week one with 147 yards and two TDs. But Brown struggled to recover from Lisfranc surgery prior to his rookie season and finished with only 584 yards. He also missed two games in the middle of the year. Hollywood is now healthy, he’s bulked up to 180 pounds, and he’s the number one WR on the Baltimore Ravens. Oh, and in case you forgot, reigning MVP Lamar Jackson is his quarterback. The Ravens are going to throw more this year, and Hollywood is going to be the main beneficiary. He’s my favorite breakout candidate.
As I noted in my 2020 All-Uglies article, DeVante Parker was better than all WRs not named Michael Thomas from Weeks 7-17 last year. That’s a significant sample size. Parker finished 2019 as the WR11 in PPR (WR6 in standard) and parlayed it into a long-term contract. The fantasy community as a whole seems to not believe this late breakout is for real, but I’m willing to take a swing at this price. I got Parker as the 26th WR drafted. If he even slightly approaches his late-season production, I got a massive value here.
7.8 – Deshaun Watson
I’m usually a “wait on QB” guy, but Watson in the seventh was just too much value to pass up. Watson finished as QB4 in back-to-back seasons. Yes, I know DeAndre Hopkins now plays in Arizona but Watson is an excellent player with a rock-solid rushing floor. He ran for 551 yards and five TDs in 2018 and 413 yards with seven TDs last season. That base is enough to ease any concerns you may have about Watson losing his favorite WR.
The Rest of the Rest
Kerryon Johnson (9.8) represents a boring but productive bench running back. I wouldn’t be surprised if he leads Detriot in rushing this year.
Austin Hooper (11.8) was the best tight end in fantasy before getting hurt last year. There’s no way he replicates his early-2019 success now that he’s in Cleveland, but there’s a chance that this dude is just really good. He’s one of my favorite late-round TE targets.
Rookies CeeDee Lamb (8.5) and Justin Jefferson (12.5) are the kinds of swings I like to take late. Reports from Dallas have been glowing about Lamb. He might just be special. If Jefferson can make the slot receiver role his own in Minnesota, there’s plenty of upside.
Overall
QB: Deshaun Watson & Baker Mayfield
RB: Miles Sanders & James Conner as starters + Kerryon Johnson, Adrian Peterson, and Justin Jackson as backups.
WR: Julio Jones, AJ Brown, DeVante Parker, and Hollywood Brown as weekly starters + CeeDee Lamb, and Justin Jefferson as rookie gambles.
TE: Austin Hooper
I would have liked it if a “safer” running back like Joe Mixon or Aaron Jones fell to me in the second, but starting with a base of Miles Sanders, James Conner, and Julio Jones feels great. I love hammering WRs in rounds four through six this year, especially in full-point PPR. I’ll have to play the matchups with my second flex spot, but I love the mix of upside and solid production I have to play with. Deshaun Watson is elite and Austin Hooper has the talent to join the top tight ends. This has the makings of a championship roster. I’ll need Conner to stay healthy and my breakout prediction for Marquise Brown to bear fruit, but I’m confident in both.
Hit me up on Twitter @DynastyWalrus and let me know if my team has what it takes to go all the way!
